Thread by @NewRulesGeo

🚨🇺🇦📉 Ukraine is headed for a DEMOGRAPHIC CRISIS

☠ Even if Ukraine somehow ‘wins’ the war, it will be a DEPOPULATED WASTELAND

👇🧵 Here’s what you need to know

Even before the start of the war, Ukraine was in demographic downward spiral

Ukraine’s population plummeted from 52 million in 1991 to 41 million in 2021

Ukraine had one of the lowest fertility rates (1.2) and one of the highest death rates (18.5) in Europe

There was also a strong outflow of working-age Ukrainians to neighboring countries such as Russia, Poland, and Romania

Estimates before the start of the war in 2022 suggest that around 4.4 million Ukrainians were living abroad

Back in 2020, researchers from the University of Washington predicted that Ukraine’s population would fall to 35.2 million by 2050, a decline of 19.5%

This made Ukraine the fourth fastest shrinking country in the world!

All these negative demographic trends kicked into overdrive after the start of the war in 2022

Ukraine’s birth rates further dropped, death rates spiked, and millions of people left the country

And Ukraine also lost a significant portion of its territory

There’s also no doubt that Ukraine has suffered MASSIVE LOSSES on the battlefield

US claims that up to 700,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed since the start of the war

Russian Ministry of Defense says that nearly a million Ukrainian soldiers have been killed

Ukraine’s population fell by 8 million from 2022-24, according to the UN

Ukraine’s population was ~41 million in 2021, which means that Ukraine’s current population is probably ~33 million, if UN estimates are to be believed

That’s over -20% in just two years!

Ukraine’s demographic situation will only get worse

For starters, military situation is getting worse for Ukraine

Ukrainian forces are losing ground in the Donbass, reporting critical manpower shortages

This means more forcible conscription

The US is pressuring Ukraine to lower its conscription age from 18 to 25

If Ukraine goes through with this decision, it will mean more young Ukrainian men will die on the battlefield

Many of these men will die before having an opportunity to have children

Ukraine’s migration problem is also unlikely to go anyway soon

UN estimates that 6 million Ukrainians left the country since 2022, and only 1 million have returned

Over half of Ukrainian children under 10 years old are now living abroad

History shows that even after wars end, refugees often remain abroad

After World War II, 1.2 million Eastern European refugees refused to return home, instead immigrating to Western countries

Expect the same to happen with Ukrainian refugees in Europe

Ukraine currently has lowest total fertility rate in the world -- 0.7 children per woman!

Raising Ukraine’s fertility rate to the replacement rate of 2.1 is impossible since natalist policies require money and societal stability

Ukraine won’t have either anytime soon

By 2100, Ukraine’s population could fall to just 15 million people, according to UN estimates

That’s 70% less than its population in 1991

Ukraine is a DYING NATION, and no amount of Western money and weapons can save it in the long run