Arnaud Bertrand Profile picture
Feb 1 1 tweets 3 min read Read on X
This is actually an interesting debate in that it illustrates the immense gap - which is far from new - between Americans' supposed "traditional values" and their actions. That Vance feels compelled to redefine core Christian teachings to obscure this hypocrisy only sharpens the contradiction.

It also illustrates the perils of linking politics with religion, and particularly Christianity, whose universalist ethics—like the command to 'love thy enemy'—collide irreconcilably with statecraft’s inherent brutality (especially in America’s case). Attempting this fusion inevitably debases either the faith or the state.

The only way we know how to square this circle is to either run a theocracy that actually implements Christian principles (historically doomed to either collapse or compromise), or adopt a secular moral philosophy compatible with governance. Confucianism is a good example of the latter—a system prioritizing social harmony through reciprocal obligations, not divine edicts. Unlike religion, it rejects transcendent ideals for pragmatic role-based ethics: statecraft as collective choreography, not the application of dogma.

The Enlightenment attempted something similar with liberalism but 3 centuries later we're obviously reaching the end of that cycle: as should be obvious to anyone paying attention liberalism’s extreme individualism has eroded the social fabric and collective purpose that bind societies. Western societies are now largely adrift—atomized, purposeless, and increasingly nihilistic.

This is probably why we're witnessing this strange moment where folks like Vance perform theological contortions to grope their way towards a more communitarian framework. Vance knows that liberalism isn't working and that there's a thirst out there for more collective purpose and social cohesion. And he's trying to awkwardly retrofit Christianity to serve that role.

Today’s crisis interestingly mirrors the Enlightenment era, when the existing paradigm — Christian theology as a framework for governance — crumbled under the weight of its own contradictions. Just as the Wars of Religion exposed the dangers of dogmatic governance, today’s fractures—social isolation, inequality, America's endless wars—reveal liberalism’s limits.

And fascinatingly, few know that at the time Enlightenment thinkers like Voltaire and Leibniz turned to Confucianism for inspiration. They saw in it a secular antidote to Europe’s theological bloodshed—morality rooted in social harmony, not scripture. Voltaire in particular was so in love with China that he had only one portrait in his study: that of Confucius, whom he described as “speaking only of the purest morality” and writing that, “since his time”, no “finer rule of conduct has ever been given throughout the earth”.

Yet the West chose liberalism—a system emphasizing individual rights over Confucian harmony. Three centuries later, we face the consequences: a society so obsessed with the individual it has forgotten how to sustain a common good. We've reached a wall just as our Enlightenment predecessors faced the limitations of Christian statecraft.

So in a funny way our 300-year experiment in prioritizing individual rights resembles a tragicomic attempt to outsmart Confucian wisdom. And we’re now rediscovering the value of his ‘differential order’ (差序格局)—not a rigid hierarchy, but a living network of mutual duties binding family, community, and nation.

The tragedy is that we’ll now likely repeat history’s mistakes: instead of embracing a Confucian-like pragmatism, we may distort Christianity into a state ideology — the very outcome the Enlightenment sought to escape. Vance’s rhetoric hints at this path: using faith not to unite, but to exclude.

All in all, three centuries later, the question endures: can we craft a moral framework that honors both individual dignity and the common good, free from dogma or nihilism? The answer, I think, lies not in hollowed-out liberalism or mangled theology, but rather in humility — recognizing that traditions once dismissed as ‘backward,’ like Confucianism’s reciprocity, Ubuntu’s ‘I am because we are,’ or even Hindu dharma’s contextual ethics, may hold keys to rebuilding societies that balance I and we.

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More from @RnaudBertrand

Feb 26
This "China is depleting the oceans with its huge fishing fleets" story is yet another utterly shameless piece of propaganda when China actually proportionally fishes much less than the rest of the world, since - unlike others - it gets the immense majority of its fish supply from aquaculture 👇 (src: openknowledge.fao.org/items/06690fd0…)

The worst culprit when it comes to depleting the oceans is actually Europe, relative to its population size. They fish about 33kg of fish per person per year compared with 10kg for China, a crazy 230% more!Image
Actually if you read the report it's 13 million tones for China x.com/realSandkraken… Which corresponds to 14.3% of global captures of aquatic animals, which is less than Europe with 15.2 million tones or 16.7% of global captures. This is of course despite China having twice Europe's population...

In other words, Europe has 9% of the world's population but fishes 16.7% of the fishes while China has 18% of the world's population but fishes 14.3% of the fishes.

Now you tell me who is overfishing and who isn't...
Can you even read a graph? China is fishing only about a third the amount of the rest of Asia (13 million tones for China vs 30 million tones for the rest of Asia) 🤷‍♂️
Read 4 tweets
Feb 17
If anyone wonders how to constitute the China allocation of their portfolio, these tickers, based on seating arrangements, are probably not a bad place to start.

That was actually the basic strategy of a friend of mine, very successful investor in China: he simply studied policy statements very deeply as well as signals like this meeting 👇 to understand what were China's strategic economic objectives and which companies would benefit from this. Just like the US has a "don't fight the fed" investment principle, China has in some way a "don't fight the government" equivalent.

(Not investment advice 😉)Image
A list of some of the attendees 👇
And for your portfolio, it's also important to check who was NOT at the meeting 😅
Read 4 tweets
Jan 19
Wow, this is huge. I just tried it myself with a foreign phone number (you can apparently choose any country, see screenshot) and it's true: you can now join Douyin - the Chinese version of TikTok - as an international user.

Which means the Great Firewall is coming down in the most unexpected way: with the world joining the China side of the wall.

Really feels like a Berlin wall moment, except in the opposite direction.Image
Image
For people wondering where the hell I found the app, given it's not on Western app stores: apkpure.com/douyin/com.ss.…
Zero "TikTok refugee" on here so far that I've seen, pure Chinese content
Read 5 tweets
Dec 27, 2024
This 👇 is arguably an even bigger Sputnik moment for China than the 6th generation fighter jet: a Chinese AI Model called DeepSeek v3 rivals - and often surpasses - the latest ChatGPT and Claude models in pretty much all respects for a tiny fraction of the training cost (only $5.5m), and it's open sourced (meaning anyone can use, modify, and improve it).

The fact that it's so cheap to train is particularly important as it completely changes the game of who can participate in advanced AI development. Up until now, the assumption was that you needed hundreds of millions or even billions of dollars to train such a model, yet DeepSeek did it with just $5.5m, a sum of money accessible to just about any startup anywhere. Concretely, this means that DeepSeek has just proven that serious AI development is not limited to tech giants.

And their model is not only cheap to train, it's also extremely efficient to run. They use an architecture called Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) where, while their full model has 671 billion parameters (which is huge), it only uses 37 billion at a time. To compare, Meta has 405 billion parameters in their latest Llama3.1 model and uses all 405 billion at a time. DeepSeek V3 is more than 10 times more efficient, yet performs better than Llama3.1 at almost all benchmarks (English, Math, Coding, etc.).

DeepSeek V3's performance at key benchmarks is impressive across the board:
- Crushes advanced math problems (90.2% on MATH-500, vs 78.3% for Claude-3.5-Sonnet and 74.6% for GPT-4o)
- Excels at coding (82.6% on HumanEval, vs 81.7% for Claude-3.5-Sonnet and 80.5% for GPT-4o)
- Can process huge amounts of text at once (128K tokens, roughly equivalent to 100,000 words in English)
- Processes text at 60 tokens per second, about twice faster than GPT-4o

And the craziest part is that it's open-source, meaning that:
- Anyone can download and study the code
- Developers can modify and improve it
- Companies can integrate it into their products without paying API fees
- The entire AI community can learn from it

Lastly, this obviously comes during an interesting context in China-US relations where the US is doing its utmost to prevent China from progressing technologically, especially in AI. As such, this is an absolutely beautiful response by China: "despite all your restrictions, we just built a world-class AI model for 1% of your cost, made it more efficient than anything you have, and open-sourced it for the whole world to use."

It's also a triumph of brains over money and raw power: with its restrictions the US placed China in a situation where it had to use resources more intelligently. As the saying goes "necessity is the mother of inventions"... And here we now are: China may have just changed the rules of the game forever, democratizing the very technology the US tried to restrict and proving, once more, that human ingenuity always finds a way.
Interesting background on the company behind the model 👇
Read 4 tweets
Dec 17, 2024
This 👇 potentially changes everything, it looks like Trump envisions a U.S.-China G2.

He says that "China and the United States can together solve all the problems in the world".
x.com/kyleichan/stat…

From the point of view of a citizen of the Earth, I'm all for an improved relationship between the U.S. and China. And so far, despite some of his hawkish appointments, all of the statements by Trump himself point to that. Actions must follow of course, which is anything but a given: U.S. rhetoric often bears little correlation to their actions...

From the point of view of a European though, a US-China G2 would be a strategic disaster of the highest order. In fact it's long been something that many European strategic thinkers have warned about: if a US-China G2 materializes without Europe at the table, it will be on the menu.

A U.S.-China G2 would effectively mark an end to the undeclared world war we've been witnessing these past few years and declare the U.S. and China to be the 2 winners, setting the new rules of the game together the way the winners of WW2 did. Europe had a De Gaulle and a Churchill back then to defend its interests, there's virtually no-one today...

Which is why I've long said it was so strategically dumb for Europe to blindly follow the U.S. in its hostile strategy against China as one day (which looks like it may be coming soon) the U.S. would be bound to flip its position, leaving Europe exposed and with a damaged relationship with China. The smarter approach would have been to maintain an equally balanced relationships with both powers while building up European strategic autonomy. Instead of following Washington's lead on chip restrictions, decoupling initiatives, and confrontational rhetoric, Europe could have carved out its own path...

The question now is whether Europe can still recover its strategic position. And unfortunately the challenge appears nearly insurmountable: years of strategic complacency have left Europe vulnerable at precisely the moment when strength and independence are most crucial, with a complete absence of leaders of the caliber needed to navigate such tricky waters...
Love how this is already being mischaracterized by "China watchers" as Trump playing into Beijing's hands: the "G2 that Xi Jinping has hoped for".
x.com/BonnieGlaser/s…

When actually the concept of a G2 originates from the very heart of the U.S. establishment, from people like Fred Bergsten, Zbigniew Brzezinski and Kissinger: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Group_of_…

And China has actually historically been very critical of it, even rejecting the very concept. Here's for instance what Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao told Barack Obama when the idea was floated during his administration (gov.cn/ldhd/2009-11/1…): "The main reasons we don't agree with the concept of a 'G2' are: First, China is a developing country with a large population, and we remain clear-headed about the long road ahead to build a modernized nation; Second, China pursues an independent and autonomous peaceful foreign policy and does not ally with any country or group of countries; Third, China maintains that world affairs should be decided jointly by all countries, not dictated by one or two countries." (original Chinese: 我们不赞成有关"两国集团"提法的主要原因是:第一,中国是一个人口众多的发展中国家,要建成一个现代化国家还有很长的路要走,对此我们始终保持清醒;第二,中国奉行独立自主的和平外交政策,不与任何国家或国家集团结盟;第三,中国主张世界上的事情应该由各国共同决定,不能由一两个国家说了算)

And again now we have the proposal coming from the U.S., not China, and we can quite safely assume it will likely again face quite a lot of opposition from China.
Read 4 tweets
Dec 3, 2024
This is crazy... So let me get this right:
- Yoon lost recent parliamentary elections
- He's invoking national security to justify emergency powers
- He's labeling the opposition as North Korean sympathizers
- He is strongly aligned with US policy (even strengthening ties with Japan, which is deeply unpopular with the population)

This sounds like a bad remake of the classic transitions to right-wing military dictatorship we saw in so many US vassals during the cold war.

Hopefully South Korea will be strong enough to prevent history from repeating itself...
Couldn't be more appallingly undemocratic: martial law can be lifted by a vote in parliament but he's blocking access to it 👇
Yoon's martial law declaration. Really reads like the ravings of the very worst military dictators, truly crazy stuff!
Image
Read 4 tweets

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