Thread by @Defi0xJeff

The agent market has been bleeding for 3-4 weeks straight.

So.....What's next? 🧵

Let's look at what has transpired in the past month

Total Market Cap went down from $21.5BN to $9.5BN, ~55.8% retracement across the board

Almost all of the agents retraced 20-90% during the last 30d making this the largest drawdown we've seen in the sector

1/15

Solana & Base Total Agent Market Cap both declined at a similar rate of 58% since the start of Jan

The dominance gap between Solana & Base is getting smaller from $2.1BN to $900mn

The gap will continue to be shorter as @virtuals_io starts its expansion on Solana

2/15

Category Performance during the last 30d

1. DeFAI - Abstraction Layers

- $GRIFFAIN -53% ($208mn)
- $ANON +640% ($116mn)
- $LMT -50% ($68mn)
- $GRIFT +15% ($38mn)
- $BUZZ +1500% ($47mn)
- $NEUR -86% ($7.8mn)

Sector with the most solid pa notably w/ $ANON, $BUZZ, $GRIFT

3/15

2. DeFAI - Trading Agents

- $SYMP +520% ($8.3mn)
- $ASYM -40% ($7.3mn)
- $KUDAI +180% ($6mn)
- $TONY +72% ($6mn)
- $LAY -17% ($4.6mn)
- $GEKKO -83% ($4.6mn)
- $PPCOIN -80% ($2.4mn)

Best looking chart goes to $TONY w/ huge liquidity & catalyst w/ Cod3x Create platform

4/15

3. Gaming x AI

- $HYPER -95% ($6mn)
- $REALIS -78% ($5mn)
- $BNTY -23% ($9.8mn)

Sector w/ highest drawdown—top 2 experienced sharp drawdown.

$BNTY remains at similar level to early Jan due to @indiedotfun platform & games rollouts (agents coming soon)

5/15

4. Launchpad / Distribution Network

- $VIRTUAL -61% ($2BN)
- $HAT -80% ($19mn)
- $MATES -49% ($39mn)
- $VVAIFU -88% ($15mn)
- $BID -45%+ down from first day of launch ($113mn)

$VIRTUAL clearest catalysts w/ decentralized QE & Solana expansion

6/15

5. Framework

- $A16Z -77% ($600mn)
- $ARC -45% ($225mm)
- $ZEREBRO -90% ($76mn)
- $GAME -80% ($72mn)
- $PIPPIN +320% ($47mn)

$ARC stands out the most in term of adoption growth, currently standing at 2.7k GitHub stars

$A16Z remains top framework at 13.6k stars, v2 soon

7/15

6. Data

- $COOKIE -61% ($94mn)
- $AIAI -74% down from launch day ($10mn)
- $NOMAI -80% ($5mn)

$COOKIE remains the most widely used dashboard for human + DataSwarm for agents

Cookie Swarm of Agents are live ➔ team of 7 aixbt on steroids

8/15

https://x.com/agentcookiefun/status/1885401855414431979

7. InvestmentDAO

Too many to highlight in this category, majority faced 75-90% draw down in the past 30d

@daosdotworld has been the most interesting on the type/quality of DAOs launching

- @YapTradeDAO — OTC marketplace for Kaito yaps
- @hardwAIreDAO — Investing in GPU

9/15

Many small categories such as alpha-focused KOLs, personality-focused KOLs / 3D models, Developer tools, TEE, Swarm, Music agents, but I'll stop here

We have gone from a hundred agents 3 months ago to thousands

There are just too many, capital & mindshare is fragmented

10/15

Agent fragmentation is exacerbated by no-code builder platforms that enables anyone to easily create conversational agents in seconds

We had liquidity & mindshare fragmentation across L1/L2s, now we have the same issue in AI agent market

11/15

What's Next?

- Natural Selection
- Consolidation

We've gone through 3 weeks of natural selection process, the teams that stop building / slow down will die out, leaving high-quality, persistent team building through the mini agent bear

12/15

From then on, consolidation will happen with clear winners getting stronger / consolidated mindshare & capital

We're starting to see bits & pieces of this playing out where degens start consolidating their bags to 2-5 picks instead of 15-20

13/15

This consolidation will result in strong rebound for quality teams that continue to relentlessly ship new features / new product without stopping

Fundamental agent coins will emerge as well as the ecosystem that houses, incubates, and showcases them

14/15

The dust is settling. The noise is fading.

What’s left are

The builders. The real quality players. The agents that actually matter.

Wondering which projects they are? Pay attention to my content ser, the alpha is right in front of you

15/15

Thanks for reading till the end.

For more on Agent Fragmentation.

Check out
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And don't forget to follow me @Defi0xJeff for more Alpha & Analysis (if you haven't already)

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