Jon Stokes Profile picture
Feb 1 9 tweets 3 min read Read on X
I've re-assessed this thread from Mike. Here is what I think is likely in the coming weeks, and why.
First, there are a lot of people with platinum resumes & important titles who have worked their way up to the very top of the NGO/gov/blob career track, who are in their nice brownstone apartments or two-story homes dealing w/ total shell shock at some letter or email.
There is no plan B for their careers. They can't pivot into some other industry, they have no marketable skills beyond working in the parts of the blob apparatus that are on fire right now. This is the Palisades fire, but in DC -- total loss but no insurance or safety net.
This is a real, legit human tragedy just like the fire, & tho it's unpopular among many I know I do feel bad for them & their families. They've dedicated their lives to doing what they thought was right -- they just have a different idea of that right than me in some key ways.
So what do they do? Well, they have nothing left to lose. Absolutely nothing. It's YOLO time. So they will what they are good at: we are about to see a wave of letters to the editor, open letters, petitions, etc. from the most impressive names calling for military intervention.
I really do think in the coming week this is going to be a big deal. There will be open calls from people who very serious people, respected, long careers, saying the military must step in and arrest Musk & depose Trump.
Where it goes from there, I don't know. But the TL is about to get NUTS. This stuff from reddit & bsky is just the vanguard of what's next. We're going to see calls from the very top echelons for the security state to step in & do the thing on the grounds that we're in a crisis.
Me? I'm going back to keeping my head down. I got stuff to build. But it's going to be quite a show. And I'm not going to bother to try and game out what's downstream of that -- hopefully a nothingburger, but we'll see.
When you read one of these letters, imagine a man of ~50yrs in a nice apartment, wife is crying, kids in another room, stack of bills on the table (including inescapable permanent student loan debt), & it’s not just that he has lost his job — his entire career track is suddenly gone with zero warning.

He is an elite who is facing what’s essentially refuge status. His whole network is in the same boat. Everyone he rubs shoulders with. In a past era, this was a “the city is being sacked & you must flee the rich quarters” type of situation.

This man will use every means at his disposal to stop this chaos & return the cosmos to the order be knew just a week ago. Every means. And his network has his back. They’re all in this together.

His means are the following: meetings, resolutions, open letters, public & private memoranda, leaks to friendly press, rumor, secrets, carefully guarded truths.

He and his peers will deploy all of these in the days to come, and will do so maximally & without fear because no courage is required of them in this moment.

The worst thing that could possibly happen has already happened in the form of a cheeky email from some twemtysomething DOGE kid. Screw this kid, right? Who the hell do these guys think they are?

There’s no limiting principle at work on either side. The stakes are literally food & shelter.

So that’s what we’re going to see reflected in the public discourse from people whose whole lives are the public discourse.

As I said, the TL will be wild. Guard your sanity.

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More from @jonst0kes

Feb 1
I think some dark switch has flipped just very recently. Today I saw a boomer in lefty FB replies fantasize about punching Trump in the face, & then in replies to a larger moot I saw an account doing "blood of tyrants" stuff in anger at the anti-DEI push.
There's some weird violent fantasy stuff bubbling up from the left in the past 24hrs that wasn't there before, & I suspect it's a project of some kind of social contagion on bsky -- like the discourse in that hothouse has just gone total violent revolution & it's spilling over.
I'm not saying it was all peace & flowers before. But I am an astute & practiced reader of the Discourse vibes, and there's something up right now. There has been a subtle shift. These things are coming from places that are normally more circumspect.
Read 14 tweets
Dec 9, 2024
Theory I floated in a GC that I'll go ahead & surface here: they used parts of the illegal, highly secret anti-domestic-terror apparatus to find this guy, & all the stuff we're seeing in the official report is classic parallel construction. Image
First, the idea that he kept the murder weapon on him for 5 days & was just carrying it around is a red flag. Really?! But parallel construction isn't just to cover how they located him -- it's mainly to establish that he's definitely the perp.
Read 5 tweets
Nov 9, 2024
Ok I gotta get this off my chest: I'm FB friends with a large # of ppl who legit think they're living in a full-blown fascist dictatorship of Nazi or USSR proportions. Ok fine. What I can't get over is how 100% of their anguished posts are about self-care & making connections.
Like you literally think you are living in a literal actual Nazi state that is getting ready to violence you and send you actual, no-foolin' camps, and your response to this is some "Eat, Pray, Love" pablum about reaching out toward one another but also taking self-care time.
This is the same cohort of people who have been preaching the virtues of self-care & connection for how many years. So you did a bunch of self-care & kept the flame of hope alive w/ your art & cultivated community, yet it's all getting worse for you... so your answer is keep doing that?
Read 7 tweets
Oct 21, 2024
I've worked there, so I know something about this, & I imagine many or most of the MAGA right would actually go UAE-style labor mobility if the whole, entire system were really a possibility -- but you won't understand what I mean from this excerpt.

What I mean is this: You can leave your wallet laying out in a cafe, and nobody will steal it. Nobody is ever going to take something from your hotel room. You won't get into a fight there, or really see any of the foreign-born workers breaking the law.

Why?

Instant deportation for breaking the law. They will absolutely scoop up a foreign-born janitor, waitress, or petroleum engineer and yeet them back across the border if they break a law.

In other words, it's not "open borders" in the sense of anyone can come and go as they please. They know who's in the country, and they will remove you from it if you get crossways with the authorities even just a tiny bit.

Somehow I don't think this is what the left-libertarian "open borders" crowd is really proposing, though. But I think the right would probably be ok with it.
The other thing that I pretty strongly dislike about this post -- apparently it's by @bryan_caplan so I will tag him here since I follow him -- is the idea that people are coming there because tolerance and diversity and hope and better life etc.

You would not learn this in a one-day layover the UAE chatting with some friendly locals, but when you work there enough to get a feel for the regional dynamics & how people who live there talk when they're at dinner, you learn the real reason why people leave behind the ancestral homelands where their families & tribes have dwelt for millennia to go to the UAE and wait tables or scrub floors:

The whole region is a hot mess, and is often destabilized, and every time a new country over there gets shaky and violence breaks out (often because the US is mucking about in some way with it), people head for the UAE as the central island of stability where they can hold down a steady job and send money back to their ancestral homeland where they would actually be happy to stay and live if it weren't in some state of collapse or turmoil.
Anyway, that whole post is terrible and I would urge Caplan to reconsider this approach of, "I had a one-day layover and chatted with some people and took some pictures, so here is why this place is great and we should be more like it" genre of... well, I don't even know what to call this.
Read 8 tweets
Aug 6, 2024
I had forgotten that this happened in MN. Wow. I recall quite clearly not just being outraged by this, but being told that it was not happening and was "disinformation."
There was also the church closures, which many churches both Catholic and Protestant came together to actively resist. They both took Walz to court and they opened in defiance of orders. Letters like this were sent and can be found via Google. Image
Walz presided over every single COVID thing that the many who are still mad at COVID are still mad about. You can put lockdowns, riots and looting, race-based vaccine allotments, mask mandates, vaccination requirements, school closures, church closures -- the works -- on him.
Read 5 tweets
Aug 3, 2024
There's no sugar-coating this so I'll give it to you straight:
1. We don't have a competitive domestic chip industry & we won't have it in the next 10yrs
2. China will take 🇹🇼 & control TSMC
3. We will keep buying chips from TSMC w/ CCP backdoors in them, & pretend it's fine.
The idea that we're going to just man up & re-shore leading-edge chipmaking is a fairy tale. The problems that got us here are all part of the larger off-shoring of US manufacturing over the last 30yrs, & will not be solved by a few tariffs & some billions for Intel.
We need a complete & total reboot of all US industrial policy, with chipmaking as one part of that bigger effort. But even if we can get it together to do this, the path to that goes through a long period when CCP has root on our domestic systems & steals or sabotages stuff.
Read 16 tweets

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