Thread by @BrianMannADK

Thread: President Trump explained his tariffs in part by pointing to the carnage caused by #fentanyl. That's my area of expertise so here's my fact-check of the White House fact sheet released today. 1/ whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/20…

Fatal overdoses, from fentanyl and all other street drugs, have dropped nationally by more than 21% since June 2023, according to the latest CDC data, falling below 90,000 deaths in a 12-month period for the first time in roughly half a decade. 2/
cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr…

President Trump has repeatedly said “300,000 people a year ” are dying from illegal drugs smuggled from Mexico. This number is starkly wrong. At its worst in 2022-2023, fatal overdoses peaked at around 114,000 per 12-month period. Fatal overdoses are now much lower. 3/

The President’s fact sheet explaining these tariffs says 75,000 U.S. deaths per year are currently attributable to fentanyl. The latest CDC data suggests the current level of street fentanyl overdose mortality has dropped to around 58,000. 4/

Canada’s role in fentanyl smuggling to the U.S. is extremely marginal. PM Trudeau describes it as less than 1%. Last year according to the DEA, 43 lbs of fentanyl was seized at the northern border. That compares with roughly 21,000 lbs seized at the southern border. 5/

Finally, according to the U.S. DEA, the amount of fentanyl entering the U.S. and its potency were both already dropping sharply in 2023 and 2024 before these tariffs. Independent drug policy experts generally agree this trend was and is real. dea.gov/press-releases…

I'll continue adding to this thread as more information surfaces about the role of fentanyl in tariff negotiations with Canada, China and Mexico. / developing...

One additional data point. CDC data shows the drop in drug deaths before these tariffs were not only unprecedented--the declines were (and apparently still are) accelerating. Some states have seen a 30-50% drop in drug deaths since the summer of 2023. /+1

China is now suggesting it will retaliate against US tariffs by curbing cooperation on anti-fentanyl efforts/+2

./+3

https://x.com/onlyyoontv/status/1885898258637349042?t=aPR0b1Og-jwf6vwtHXYXjg&s=19

Here's my report on this for NPR/+4 npr.org/2025/02/02/nx-…