toomas ilves, ex-verif Profile picture
Feb 2 6 tweets 2 min read Read on X
The US, outside its government agency USTR, generally doesn’t realise that in the EU, all, let me repeat, ALL trade relations are handled, indeed are managed solely by the EU Commission. No member state, not tiny Estonia nor big Germany has a separate trade regime. 1/n
This has a number of important implications for countries that trade with the EU. A. With ca. half a billion consumers it’s a huge and hence powerful market. B. The much maligned EU Commission and its “unelected bureaucrats” (you think USTR is staffed by elected officials???) are…

2/n
…brutally professional. Ask the USTR or any other government that has negotiated with them. I.e they are anything but “euroweenies”. C. They are not politicians. Their job is to defend and uphold the EU treaties, of which the common market is the most important, indeed, the EU’s backbone and... 3/n
Raison d’etre. D. Any unilateral actions against EU trade policy will be met by a range of measures that will be measured, proportional but designed to exact a maximum effect. E. While the EU has a trade surplus with the US in goods, the US enjoys a far larger surplus in services. 4/n
Meaning financial and digital services. Think X, Facebook et al, that already violate EU privacy and online harms monitoring. Nor do these companies pay taxes to the EU countries where they make most of their profits. Taking all the above into consideration, a US trade war against the EU… 5/
… means taking on an unnecessary adversary in an unnecessary dispute with an economically powerful entity hardly lacking in highly skilled and motivated actors defending not only their interests but their foundational laws. Break out the popcorn.🍿 6/fin

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More from @IlvesToomas

Jan 2
This is true. Exactly what they did in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania in 1940.

When I talked about this in 2014 after Crimea, was invaded, the Finnish foreign minister Erkki Tuomioja was boorish and presumptuous enough to publicly claim I didn’t know Estonian history because I grew up in the US. 1/3
This was the history of all of CEE when the Russians came in. Poland was especially hard hit.

But Western Europeans (and in their own insecurities about whether they were at all Western, Finnish politicians) instead accused the victims of Russian brutality of making it up. 2/3
Think about it. Mediocrities dismissing the history of the victims because they were second class Europeans, lesser, primitive.

Now of course these same boors spout to the famous Russian line about the crimes of Stalin:

"It never happened and besides, it was long ago"

3/4
Read 5 tweets
Oct 25, 2024
When major newspapers begin pre-emptively to self-censor you can no longer trust their content.

My parents saw this when the Sovs occupied Estonia. Friends from a number of once liberal democracies have seen it.

We always see it in the dimming crepuscular light before a country goes dark.
1/n
It's why I suggested earlier to read Noberl Laureate Czeslaw Milosz's "Captive Minds".

Or for a more historical account, @anneapplebaum's "Iron Curtain: the Crushing of Eastern Europe"

Already now we need alternative sources of trustworthy information. @nytimes' coverage 2/n
@anneapplebaum @nytimes of this election, the decisions of @washingtonpost and @latimes already place them on the slippery slope to @Fox.

We need to cultivate alternatives. We have respected journals such as @TheAtlantic, @NewYorker. UK papers
still have trustworthy articles. Podcasts have become
3/n
Read 4 tweets
Aug 23, 2024
85 years ago today, Germany and Russia signed a pact with a secret protocol dividing up Europe between them.

The invasions and slaughter that began 8 days later left tens of millions dead. The reverberations of the war and death they unleashed echo through generations of survivors and their children and childrens children.(1/n)
The children of the perpetrators of these horrors show little remorse. One, Russia, revels in its bloodlust to this day, glorifies its cold-blooded murderers from then and today in Ukraine, threatening the same for the rest of us.

For the other, Germany, the crimes of its (2/n)
leaders have been turned into economic opportunities and an excuse to avoid obligations. Under the guise of "responsibility" for WW2, we got corrupt gas deals against the wished of the victims of the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact. Its crimes from then are an excuse not to arm Ukraine (3/n)
Read 5 tweets
Feb 11, 2024
If Russia wins in Ukraine, Europe will have 35 million refugees -- people who don't want to suffer the genocide we all know takes place in Russian occupied areas.

Europe is not ready for that. Its leaders worry instead about sending Tauruses and the cost of producing shells. 1/n
After Russia wins, Europe will have 3-4 years to get ready as Russia recovers. Perhaps less given they've ramped military production up to war levels.

Will anyone lead Europe in the next 4-5 years so we'll be ready?

The current crop has shown they are completely unfit.

2/n
Who the new leaders will be is up to European electorates.

Will European voters take seriously the threats we face or will they continue vacillating between being ostriches of sheep?

Those who have warned of what's coming have been ignored or sidelined. 3/n
Read 4 tweets
Jan 17, 2024
To people who have no experience with spies:

I had a lot but two stand out: my number two in the RFE Estonian service and my immediate boss in its Research Dept

The latter was a shock when it came out he had worked for the Czech KGV, the StB, but knew as only my superior
1/n
The first. though, I had known for almost a decade and considered not only a colleague but also a friend and confidant. He told the best Soviet and anti-Soviet jokes and was a genuinely talented published writer.

One day in July 1991 the RFE director called me at 7 am.
2/n
"Come in now. Mesilane has defected and is giving a press conference in Moscow in 2 hours." RFE at the time was one of the few places in the West with Russian TV.

At the press conference in Moscow the man I had thought a friend,
3/n
Read 6 tweets
Aug 20, 2023
32 aastat tagasi, tollal *de jure* 73 aastavanune Eesti Vabariik ärkas, tärkas ja jätkas elu *de facto*.

Ent Eesti ei jätkanud sealt, kust meilt iseseisvus rööviti, vaid pidime 50 aastat füüsilisest, materiaalsest ja vaimsest taagast lahti ka saama. 1/n
Ja de novo looma ja ehitama midagi, millest eestlased olid pool sajandit unistanud ja selle nimel teinud rasket tööd. Ja mille nimel ka kohutavalt kannatanud.

Me ei saa aga minna ajas tagasi sellesse paljuski tagantjärel romantiseeritud idülli, milles me elasime 1939 a. ... 2/n
kui Stalin ja Hitler meid tsivilisatsioonist vägivaldselt rebisid, ja tirisid meid õudustesse, mille helgemaid hetki saaksime nimetada vaid labaseks matsluseks.

Vaadates igal hommikul arvutist üleöö aset leidnud õudusi Ukrainas, ma tean, et see meid endid 51 aastat painanud. 3/
Read 7 tweets

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