As a 6 year old I watched the first Mavericks game with my late Dad on Oct 11, 1980. Mavs beat the Spurs 103-92. So having been with the Mavs since day 1, their inexplicable giveaway of a generational talent is painful. But I have a theory as to what’s really going on . . . 🧵
Premise #1: the Mavs trading Luka, at 25 years old 1 of the top 3 players in the world, to the Lakers in return for broken down 32 year old Anthony “Street Clothes” Davis makes no sense as a basketball move. No one disputes this. So there must be a non-basketball explanation…
Premise #2: The new Adelson/Dumont ownership group has no real interest in basketball. The Mavs are just a means to an end, which is opening up the largest untapped gambling market in the country, Texas. A casino resort in DFW with the new Mavs arena in it is their stated goal.
Premise #3: The Adelson/Dumont push to change Texas law to allow their Mavs-centered “destination casino resort” is going badly in Austin. Again. Despite hiring every lobbyist in ATX, Sands is not getting a bill through the #txlege this session. So another loss for gambling in TX
Premise #4: Adelson needs more leverage to get a gambling bill through the #txlege. But they already donate more to TX politicians than anyone & they employ dozens of lobbyists. So where the carrot has failed they need a stick. That stick is the threat to move the Mavs to Vegas.
Premise #5: As of 24 hours ago, the threat to move the Mavs to Vegas was laughable. The Mavs just made a trip to the NBA Finals and were led by a 25-year old generational superstar. They were beloved in DFW, the 4th largest media market in the U.S. Teams riding high don’t move.
Premise #6: if their goal is to open a destination casino resort centered on a new arena, the Adelsons are better off with the Mavs being bad, unpopular & unprofitable. This would make viable their threat to move to Vegas unless the #txlege legalizes their “Venetian Dallas” plan.
Premise #7: the NBA would not allow a healthy franchise to abandon the 4th largest media market in the USA. But if support for the Mavs has dried up & the promise of a golden new market in Vegas is in play? Ask fans of the Seattle SuperSonics if the NBA would block that move.
Premise #8: by giving away Luka in return for Anthony “Day to” Davis the Mavs went from being a top-tier NBA team for many years to come to who knows what now. The combination of AD, Klay, and Kai is the 2018 NBA All-Star Team, but it’s unfortunately 2025. Mavs will be bad soon.
Premise #9: But even worse for the Mavs franchise is that Day 1 fans like me feel betrayed and heart sick. Who is going to buy season tickets now? Watch games on TV? Buy and wear merchandise? Mavs are already down 700k followers on Instagram since they ran Luka out of town.
Premise #10: But the broken spirit of Mavs fans and a suddenly unhealthy, unpopular franchise is actually good for what the Adelsons really want. Why? Because collapsing ticket sales & ratings make their threat to move to Vegas suddenly very real & that threat is what they need.
Premise #11: the Adelsons didn’t trade Luka to the Lakers for old Unibrow Davis, they traded Luka for a gun they can hold to the head of the #txlege: “Authorize our Mavs-centered casino or we’re off to Vegas baby, and the NBA won’t say no.”
Premise #12: so the Adelsons well get their Mavs-centered casino one or another. Plan A is the new “Venetian Dallas.” But if the Texas Legislature continues to says no, then Plan B is the Vegas Mavericks. And the “unhealthy” nature of the post-Luka Mavs makes Plan B viable.
Premise 13: And, oh yeah, a nice side benefit of this gambling-driven plan is that the NBA’s flagship franchise, the Lakers, is reinvigorated with 1 of the top 3 players on the planet. Like Wilt Chamberlain, Kareem & Shaq before Luka, the Lakers magically have a new superstar.
Premise #14: That Nico admits that he talked ONLY to the Lakers about trading Luka reveals that this was not a basketball-driven transaction. Why not get 5 1st round draft picks for Luka? Because the Adelsons need the Mavs to stink and be hopeless by the 2027 Texas Lege session.
Final Premise: So there you have it. Adelsons get their leverage and will have their new casino in the late 2020s in Dallas or Vegas. The NBA gets their marquee franchise rebuilt. The Lakers get their successor to LeBron and will be good for the next decade. Mavs fans get screwed
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