Thread by @wmhuo168

ASML backed Washington’s blockade, but China’s lithography advances are breaking the dyke. With DUV self-sufficiency and domestic EUV rising, ASML lost its biggest market. High-NA EUV won’t save it—Intel struggles, TSMC hedges, and the Dutch boy drowns.

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ASML bet everything on Washington’s blockade, but China’s lithography advances are breaking the dyke. With DUV self-sufficiency and domestic EUV emerging, ASML has lost its biggest market. The Dutch boy is running out of fingers. 1/6

China, forced to innovate, now leads in DUV self-sufficiency at 28nm and is already producing 5nm-class chips using SAQP. Meanwhile, reports suggest China’s homegrown 13.5nm EUV will feature a better laser than ASML’s, making Dutch lithography obsolete. 2/6

Without China as a customer, ASML is betting its future on High-NA EUV, but that’s a niche market. Intel, one of its two major customers, is struggling with standard EUV. TSMC is hedging, and Samsung remains a question mark. That’s not a stable foundation. 3/6

Without China as a customer, ASML is betting its future on High-NA EUV, but that’s a niche market. Intel, one of its two major customers, is struggling with standard EUV. TSMC is hedging, and Samsung remains a question mark. That’s not a stable foundation. 3/6

ASML didn’t just block sales to China; it ensured China would never rely on it again. The world’s largest chip market is now building an independent lithography ecosystem. Once China scales domestic EUV, ASML’s long-term growth prospects evaporate. 4/6

ASML’s High-NA bet won’t save it if its customers falter. Intel’s roadmap is shaky, TSMC is cautious, and Samsung may or may not commit. Losing China means ASML is locked into a shrinking Western market while China surges ahead with its own tech. 5/6

ASML played the loyal enforcer for Washington, but now it’s caught in its own trap. The Dutch boy who plugged the dyke can’t stop the flood this time. China is rising, and ASML is running out of customers. The future belongs to those who build, not those who block. 6/6