Thread by @yarbatman

1. So Netanyahu came to Washington and what he got is a memo on Iran, not an EO with new sanctions designations.

Trump said he is "unhappy" to sign to memo, and that he hopes it "will hardly have to be used," while also stating he wants a deal with Iran.

Huge shift from 2018.

2. If Trump was really aiming to resume maximum pressure, he would have signed a new EO to widen sanctions on Iran's oil sector, and Treasury would have designated Chinese ports and refiners pursuant to the EO in order to reduce volumes of Iranian crude flowing to China.

3. These ports and refiners are known targets and the Biden administration had almost certainly prepared the designations that are ready on the shelves of OFAC.

Biden didn't enact these sanctions because of concerns of blowback for global oil markets and US-China relations.

4. Recent events show that Trump is *far* less wary about throwing markets into disarray, so it is actually even *more* remarkable that he didn't dive right back into maximum pressure with a more robust initial salvo, and that he went out of his way to signal his reluctance.

5. We'll have to wait and see what the text of the memo says. But if the document allows the Trump administration to say it has resumed maximum pressure, while leaving open the space for talks, a deal seems very possible, especially given signals coming from Tehran.

6. In such a scenario, the memo serves the purpose of placating Israel and its boosters, while also signaling a break with Biden's ostensible lack of pressure on Iran.

If a deal is reached, Trump will get to claim it was because of the tough-minded memo he signed on February 4.