Memecoins were once fun and pure, but the industrialized trenches have turned a harmless PvP game into a predatory one, dominated by insider edge.
Traditional casino games and memecoins share a core design idea: a high “return to player” (RTP) that masks a built-in edge while delivering intermittent, variable rewards to players.
Traditional casino games like slots and blackjack offer high RTPs (90-99%+), meaning you might lose $1-10 in expectation on $100 of wagers. These games work because they leverage near-miss effects and the gambler’s fallacy, ensuring that the lure of a big win (variable payoff) keeps you in the game even as you’re bleeding bankroll.
As I see it, the main issue with memecoins-as-gambling-game today is that they have moved away from their purest form to a fully industrialized version of the trenches. Initially, they functioned more like a PvP slot machine: most bets evaporate, but there’s a small chance to graduate with a 5-25x+ multiplier, or even hit a jackpot-level payout of 100-1000x+ when they temporarily become PvE. The thrill is from “catching a runner” or watching someone hit a massive win.
Now, only 1-1.5% of PumpFun launches graduate every day. I would guess nearly all of these are industrialized, operated by sophisticated insiders and influencers (“eca”) like [REDACTED] who launch them to their audiences with ever shortening half-lifes. All of this lowers the effective RTP for casuals, transforming memecoins from a pseudo-random high RTP slot-style game to a predatory, low RTP insider game where casual users are set up to lose.
The death knell for these games is when RTP drops so low that uninformed players have ~no chance to profit. Gambler’s fallacy and social media can temporarily keep the game alive by spotlighting winners. Over time, if nearly all profits are captured by house edge, the player pool is liable to dry up and destroys the original, harmless PvP thrills that made memes fun in the first place.
Traditional casino games and memecoins share a core design idea: a high “return to player” (RTP) that masks a built-in edge while delivering intermittent, variable rewards to players.
Traditional casino games like slots and blackjack offer high RTPs (90-99%+), meaning you might lose $1-10 in expectation on $100 of wagers. These games work because they leverage near-miss effects and the gambler’s fallacy, ensuring that the lure of a big win (variable payoff) keeps you in the game even as you’re bleeding bankroll.
As I see it, the main issue with memecoins-as-gambling-game today is that they have moved away from their purest form to a fully industrialized version of the trenches. Initially, they functioned more like a PvP slot machine: most bets evaporate, but there’s a small chance to graduate with a 5-25x+ multiplier, or even hit a jackpot-level payout of 100-1000x+ when they temporarily become PvE. The thrill is from “catching a runner” or watching someone hit a massive win.
Now, only 1-1.5% of PumpFun launches graduate every day. I would guess nearly all of these are industrialized, operated by sophisticated insiders and influencers (“eca”) like [REDACTED] who launch them to their audiences with ever shortening half-lifes. All of this lowers the effective RTP for casuals, transforming memecoins from a pseudo-random high RTP slot-style game to a predatory, low RTP insider game where casual users are set up to lose.
The death knell for these games is when RTP drops so low that uninformed players have ~no chance to profit. Gambler’s fallacy and social media can temporarily keep the game alive by spotlighting winners. Over time, if nearly all profits are captured by house edge, the player pool is liable to dry up and destroys the original, harmless PvP thrills that made memes fun in the first place.
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