Farzad Mostashari Profile picture
Feb 15 16 tweets 6 min read Read on X
1/ After residency at Mass General Hospital, I reported to Atlanta to meet my fellow CDC Epidemic Intelligence Service Officers.

I have never felt so intimidated by my peers

The best and the brightest, they were star clinicians, had served in disaster zones; MD/PhDs and MSF.
2/ We were placed at various centers throughout CDC, learning from the world's experts- in tuberculosis, mosquito-borne diseases, food-borne diseases, ...

and some of us were placed with state & local Health departments to be on the front lines of outbreak response
3/ In my first day on the job, I got into a city sanitation car to investigate an outbreak of bloody diarrhea at a state psychiatric facility.

My boss has served in the EIS. Her boss, the legendary head of the NYC Bureau of Communicable Disease had also.

Our commissioner too.
4/ Over the next 24 months we got intensive training in epidemiology, public health informatics, statistics.

But we also went to the bedside.

The logo of the EIS is a shoe with a hole on it

To me, the worn out shoe perfectly encapsulated the spirit of humility and service Image
5/ I investigated outbreaks of listeria that was causing deaths in cancer patients and pus-filled abscesses in stillborn children.

We found and recalled the contaminated hot dogs.

and innovated new genomic methods for identifying outbreaks faster. Image
6/ I traced an outbreak of Vibrio (a cousin of the bacteria that causes cholera) to oysters harvested in Long Island Sound that had become contaminated in 77 degree August waters and put in a stop order that broke the outbreak Image
7/ I was the officer on duty when a child was bitten by a bat that might have been rabid.

I was on call for clusters of salmonella, church and mosque potlucks, Hepatitis outbreaks among restaurant-goers, and more.

I was on vacation when birds started dying in a Bronx zoo
8/ There was also a cluster of cases of fever and encephalopathy in Queens. Many died.

We sent biopsies and blood tests to the only lab in the country that could diagnose what was going on.

West Nile Virus

The lab and the scientists proudly wore a CDC badge.

So did I Image
9/ This was the first time that virus had ever been seen in the New World, and birds-especially crows had fallen dead in piles in Queens before the human cases- they had no immunity

We developed a methodology to use statistical clustering to identify the spread of the virus. Image
10/ CDC's experts had investigated West Nile - in Romania, and other arboviral illnesses- throughout the world.

So when the outbreak came to our shores they could advise the local health department.

My fellow EIS Officers helped me go door-to-door in Queens, drawing blood Image
Image
11/ West Nile was the biggest public health response I had seen.

Until 9/11

I came out of the subway at Chambers-WTC to go to work shortly after the second plane hit.

I didn't go home til dawn broke the next day, through streets filled with white ash and the burnt stench
12/ Some of the only planes that flew on Sept 12 carried EIS Officers from around the country to NYC to help.

We were worried about a biterrorist attack, and rapidly set up a system that collected symptom data around the clock from patients coming into Emergency Departments. Image
Image
13/ That rudimentary manual system - staffed by humans- public health workers- morphed into "syndromic surveillance" that analyzed electronic ED and hospital triage data to detect illness clusters.

A system that's become a third pillar of public health surveillance today Image
14/ And then, a month later, we did have a bioterrorist attack- weapons-grade anthrax- through the mail.

I saw my first coal-black anthrax "eschar" then

And in a hospitalized baby the second

And worried that I might carry the spores home to our baby too.

But we kept working Image
Image
15/ Those were some of my memories of my years spent at the EIS, with some of the brightest and hardest working colleagues I've ever had.

Many went on to lead their divisions at CDC, to become state health officers and city epidemiologists. Led international orgs

and now?
16/ When you hear, "the CDC's Epidemic Intelligence Service class was cancelled and the officers fired" I hope this gives you a sense of what has been lost.

Not just the outbreaks that can't be investigated, the surge capacity gone, but our future public health leadership lost

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Farzad Mostashari

Farzad Mostashari Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @Farzad_MD

Apr 7
1/ The CMS final 2026 rate notice for Medicare Advantage just dropped, on the "no later than" date of April 7

The final rate is up- by a lot more than industry consensus of 75-100 bps!

I think a lot of plans are going to feel a little relief about their preliminary bids tonight Image
2/ One sell side analyst said "the most bullish expectation we heard [before] was a +125bps improvement"

ahem... my expectation was better than that, but even I didn't think it would be 310 bps better.

So why?

Because Dr Oz likes Medicare Advantage?

3/ If you missed, go back ands read my January tweetorial on the Advance Rate Notice (which was already "better than expected")

The short answer is that each year's "FFS growth rate" includes a true up of CMS actuaries' past and future cost estimates

Read 14 tweets
Mar 15
1/ I love reading the annual March MedPAC report to Congress on Medicare Payment Policy

such good, clear data and policy thinking.

kudos to @medicarepayment staff and chair @Michael_Chernew

I'll post some thoughts/highlights as I read through this morning
2/ My focus will be on the areas I know best
-Primary care
-Alternative payment models
-Medicare Advantage
-Competition and consolidation

The report is here for those following at home.

medpac.gov/document/march…
3/ Here's the first nugget from their core responsibility - recommending payment rates to congress that ensure beneficiary access to care

Clinicians are paid 140% of Medicare by commercial plans... but you wouldn't know that by working with independent practices (as I do) Image
Read 39 tweets
Jan 16
1/ A topic of great interest at #JPM was the "better than expected" 2026 Advance Rate Notice for Medicare Advantage that dropped on Friday

I dug into the numbers - let me share what it might portend for plans and risk-taking providers in MA, after a tough couple of years

(🚀)
2/ I have to say I'm surprised how often investors/analysts believe that government actions are fundamentally arbitrary and unpredictable

I believe most agencies will tell you exactly what they're doing and why, if you have the patience to wade into the weeds

(me: a former fed) Image
3/ The table most people see every year is this one.

Most of these numbers come straight from the actuaries, and there is basically no political interference in eg what number is put in the "Effective Growth Rate" box

instructive @KFFHealthNews interview
kffhealthnews.org/news/foster-re…Image
Read 20 tweets
Oct 29, 2024
1/ Is Value-Based Care working? After a decade, we know this:

The latest results for the largest such program just dropped.

Giving primary care accountability for total cost and quality of care is good for patients, good for practices, and good for society.

Let's dig in.
2/ As the press release says

480 ACOs providing care to nearly 11 million people with Medicare saved the gov't $5B dollars while improving quality of care

The gov't kept $2B

Providers earned an extra $3B

Beneficiaries saved on lower out-of-pocket spending-AND LESS SUFFERING
3/ Sure, there are alternatives!

We can cut benefits to seniors. That would save money.

We can cut pay for doctors. That would save money.

We can do Denials or "Utilization Management". That would save money.

Or we can incentivize more coordination and more primary care.
Read 16 tweets
Jul 12, 2024
1/ The annual quick read and analysis of the Notice of Proposed Rulemaking that regulates the Medicare Shared Savings Program (MSSP) is upon us, folks.

like last year, there are a number of uncontroversial/incremental improvements

there are also a couple of head-scratchers..
2/ I will go through in roughly the same order as the excellent fact sheet:
cms.gov/newsroom/fact-…

and as usual, this builds on @Travis_Broome

x.com/Travis_Broome/…
3/ the starting point of the fact sheet is the right one.

there are 11M Medicare benes in the program and the most important goal of any changes should be to increase participation

Here they estimate by 4M over the next few years, towards goal of 100% participation

why? Image
Read 20 tweets
Apr 30, 2024
1/ When Walmart enters any business you can expect that they will leverage their massive scale to get better economics, create value for customers- and drive out local mom and pop competitors

Thats what many assumed would happen w primary care clinics

but it didn't

why not?
2/ The first thing I have to acknowledge is to rule out "execution"

They aren't perfect (their Athena and Epic EMR travails show that) but Walmart knows how to execute, and they won't scale something until they've figured out how to make it profitable.

They couldn't
3/ To their credit, they tried a lot of permutations over the past 10 years, and strictly as an operator, you have to give them respect that they could be a force

- Third party vendor
- Walmart Health clinics
-Oak St Health
- Own clinics + telehealth

Read 16 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

:(