I'm sure infectious disease minimizers are attributing the record-shattering surge of severe flu this year to "immunity debt". Let's think this through, shall we?
π§΅
1/
π§΅
1/
1. Serious mitigations ended more than 4 years ago. Why would immunity debt only kick in now? And why wasn't 4 flu seasons without mitigations enough to repay whatever "debt" there was?
2/
2/
And yet we had to reiterate the same point this year because the "debt" is somehow still not repaid.
surreynowleader.com/opinion/analysβ¦
surreynowleader.com/opinion/analysβ¦
2. There is no long-lasting immunity against infection with seasonal flu and new strains evolve every year. That's why we need annually updated flu shots. So whether or not people were exposed to 2020 strains is not obviously relevant to infection rates in 2025.
3/
3/
3. Most people do not actually get flu very often. Estimates would put it at once every 9 to 12 years. So most people would not have been infected during the period of mitigations anyway.
4/
4/
https://x.com/TRyanGregory/status/1798321434638614787?t=SYZMiyuDztGzg-78l32ecQ&s=19
4. It's not just more cases in general, it's more *severe* this season. Immunity debt struggles to explain it being disproportionately severe. This also presents yet another challenge to the myth about viruses automatically becoming more benign or endemic meaning mild.
5/
5/
So what could it be? Several things (not mutually exclusive):
A) Immunity theft. Previous COVID infections causing reduced immune function. Could be short-term and/or longer-term and perhaps increasing with reinfections. This would be be consistent with more *severe* flu.
6/
A) Immunity theft. Previous COVID infections causing reduced immune function. Could be short-term and/or longer-term and perhaps increasing with reinfections. This would be be consistent with more *severe* flu.
6/
Why now if it's immunity theft?
Unlike most years, we had a surge of COVID in summer/fall (it's NOT seasonal), which could have set us up for worse short-term immune effects when flu arrived in winter.
Also, more repeat infections could worsen longer-term immunity theft.
7/
Unlike most years, we had a surge of COVID in summer/fall (it's NOT seasonal), which could have set us up for worse short-term immune effects when flu arrived in winter.
Also, more repeat infections could worsen longer-term immunity theft.
7/
B) Coinfection. Flu + COVID can make severity worse than infection with just one of these alone. There is still a lot of COVID this winter on top of a major surge of flu.
8/
8/
C) Evolution of flu strains to become more virulent. Yes, that's entirely possible. No, viruses don't evolve to reach a happy equilibrium with hosts.
D) Some of it could be H5N1. At the very least, H5N1 is getting closer and closer to human to human pandemic potential.
9/
D) Some of it could be H5N1. At the very least, H5N1 is getting closer and closer to human to human pandemic potential.
9/
Three other points of note:
i) There have been low flu years before, *not* followed by severe surges.
ii) The last time it was this bad (2009), there was H1N1 swine flu in the mix.
iii) Vaccination rates are not typically high, but they're down even lower (thanks, minimizers!)
i) There have been low flu years before, *not* followed by severe surges.
ii) The last time it was this bad (2009), there was H1N1 swine flu in the mix.
iii) Vaccination rates are not typically high, but they're down even lower (thanks, minimizers!)
β’ β’ β’
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
γ
