steve hsu Profile picture
Feb 18 8 tweets 3 min read Read on X
YAWN 🥱

Will we ever figure out who blew up that pipeline? It's a mystery!!!

After the US-RUS peace treaty and the lifting of sanctions, will Germany get cheap energy again? 🤔

Will retards look back and ask what the pipeline eco-disaster was all about? Nah, they'll just move along in their memory-less state.Image
"We have always been at war with Eastasia"

“He who controls the past controls the present, and he who controls the present controls the future"
One of my startup co-founders, after watching me in lots of VC meetings and customer sales pitches, said

"Steve, you always assume the people we're talking to are way smarter than they actually are. Half of what you tell them they can't really absorb." 🐒
Pro-tip: This was always a hybrid proxy war, starting before 2014.

The US put it on, and now they're taking it off bc the Russians won and the Sino-Russian alliance is too formidable.

US and Russia FRIENDS now!

EU? What's that?

Everything else you've been told is 100% propaganda.

If you don't know who the sucker is at the table, YOU are the sucker.
The same propaganda line has been used again, and again, and again. The biggest loser is always the proxy we use in the proxy war.

The "attrit" Russia strategy is inhuman - ask the mothers and children of all the dead and maimed soldiers from Ukraine and Russia.

"This was always a hybrid proxy war, starting before 2014.

The US put it on, and now they're taking it off bc the Russians won and the Sino-Russian alliance is too formidable."

If you look carefully you can see Obama warning dumb neocons like Hillary not to do this. When he said "the Russians have escalation dominance in Ukraine" what he MEANT was that this is how it would end - tragically.

Both Obama and Trump understand the lessons of Vietnam.

On Iraq:

TRUMP: “In Iraq — so they spent — President Bush went in. I strongly disagreed with it, even though it wasn’t my expertise at the time, but I had a very good instinct about things. They went in and I said, ‘That’s a tremendous mistake.’ And there were no weapons of mass destruction. It turned out I was right.”

OBAMA:
npr.org/2009/01/20/995…

Obama said that what he was opposed to was "a dumb war ... a rash war."

WAR IS SOMETIMES NECESSARY. DUMB WARS ARE SIMPLY TRAGIC.
If I give a stick to a 9 year old and convince him to provoke a full grown man into a fight, how is that going to end?

Why would I do such a thing? To cause inconvenience for the man?

What kind of people would do this? Will they take responsibility for a million dead and maimed soldiers?

And yet we'll all forget about this soon and start talking about Taiwan.Image

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More from @hsu_steve

Jan 7
Yawn 🥱

20th century opponents of Japanese and Chinese immigration argued that they would out-compete US workers and drive down wages. They also predicted that East Asians would eventually threaten "white domination" of the world. The same sentiments are just below the surface in the minds of many China hawks today.

Excerpts below from Lothrop Stoddard's The Rising Tide of Color Against White World-Supremacy. Yes, this is a real book, influential in 20th century America and beyond. Stoddard met with Hitler and Himmler in Germany in 1939.

The book was positively reviewed by the NYTimes in 1920. NYT: ""Lothrop Stoddard evokes a new peril, that of an eventual submersion beneath vast waves of yellow men..."

"Does any one doubt, that the day is at hand when China will have cheap fuel from her coal-mines, cheap transport by railways and steamers, and will have founded technical schools to develop her industries? Whenever that day comes, she may wrest the control of the world's markets, especially throughout Asia, from England and Germany."

"Experience proves that the Chinese as all-round laborers can easily outdistance all competitors. They are industrious, intelligent, and orderly. They can work under conditions that would kill a man of less hardy race; in heat that would kill a salamander, or in cold that would please a polar bear, sustaining their energies, through long hours of unremitting toil with only a few bowls of rice."

"Flexible as Jews, they can thrive on the mountain plateaux of Thibet and under the sun of Singapore; more versatile even than Jews, they are excellent laborers, and not without merit as soldiers and sailors; while they have a capacity for trade which no other nation of the East possesses. They do not need even the accident of a man of genius to develop their magnificent future."

"This economic superiority of the Chinaman shows not only with other races, but with his yellow kindred as well. As regards the Japanese, John Chinaman has proved it to the hilt. Wherever the two have met in economic competition, John has won hands down. Even in Japanese colonies like Korea and Formosa, the Japanese, with all the backing of their government behind them, have been worsted."

Edward Ross (1866 - 1951) was a professor of economics at Stanford and later Wisconsin.

Ross traveled to China and wrote The Changing Chinese, a 1911 work of sociology and economics. Here is an excerpt:

"For all his native capacity, the coolie will need a long course of schooling, industrial training, and factory atmosphere before he inches up abreast of the German or American working man. In the technical and directing staffs there is the same absence of the modern industrial spirit, resulting in chronic mismanagement, ... These failings are not peculiar to China; they hamper the industrial development of other Asiatic countries, notably India. Still, the way in which Japanese industry, with all its faults, is perfecting both its technic and its methods shows that these failings will be gradually overcome ..."

Ross predicted that Asian economic development will take considerable time - that his grandchildren's generation would be the one that loses control of the world.

Links below.Image
What can the NYT and Hitler and Himmler agree on?

Easy: the Yellow Peril and Asian Menace!
Read 4 tweets
Jul 11, 2024
AI Rising wargame held in London.

Amazing production - shot the documentary and played the game all in one day. Quite an effort - big, high quality production.

6 teams: US, PRC, EU, EU, Global Voices, Technologists

The Controller team that ran the game was superb. Image
Loved the Dr. Strangelove vibe!

Game had 3 turns, covering AI progress until ~2035.

The Controllers evaluated the actions of each team and determined the resulting evolution of the world btw and during turns. Image
Teams engaged in lots of negotation, internal and external. Strategic actions (including covert), and even direct attacks!

I was the China principal (team lead).

e/acc seizes power!

Some actions we took: pour 1% GDP into acc: close semiconductor gap, push algos, etc. Image
Read 8 tweets
Jun 25, 2024
CONSPIRACY THEORY IN AMERICA, Prof. L. deHaven-Smith, Univ of Texas Press

Tracks use of term "Conspiracy Theory" in US Media. Growth begins just after JFK assassination.

Contains 1967 CIA dispatch 1035-960 (FOIA): "deploy propaganda assets" vs critics of Warren Commission 1/n Image
Heading of CIA dispatch 1035-960 is "PSYCH" and "destroy when no longer needed" 🤔 Image
Asks for help from domestic assets (violates CIA charter?) to counter influence of "conspiracy theorists" publishing "conspiracy theories"

Urge media contacts to criticize such theories and those who embrace them. Image
Read 5 tweets
Dec 29, 2023
Income returns to cognitive ability in Finland.

Income @ 99th pctile ~ 1.6x higher than avg

N~300k Finns, avg incomes age 35-45, age 18 test scores from mandatory military service. Non-cognitive test covers “self-confidence” and “leadership motivation”

aalto-econ.fi/tervio/Notes_o…
Image
Measured abilities are at least partially heritable - expect kids from wealthier families to have higher avg ability.

Leftist claim: Family wealth causes the higher SAT scores, not abilities inherited from parents.

But both genetics & family environment contribute. Image
Note these results come from a Nordic country with a strong social welfare system, famously strong education system (top PISA scores), free college.

Economic stratification by ability despite a social welfare state that US dems could only dream of.
Read 8 tweets
Nov 25, 2023
UKR was an unnecessary war. Hundreds of thousands of lives could have been saved if the US allowed these March 2022 negotiations to succeed.
Maybe should have written hundreds of thousands of *casualties* instead of lives, not entirely sure.

And maybe negotiations would have failed anyway, but the point is: US didn't want them.
Regardless of how u feel abt Mar 2022 negotiations, admit that we heard very little about them from Western media.

It's against the Narrative that Israeli PM and Zelensky were convinced that Putin was seriously negotiating with them about peace.

🤔🎈🐒 Look! Spy balloons!!!
Read 4 tweets
Oct 20, 2023
New poll + figure from paper below.

Testing Theories of American Politics: Elites, Interest Groups, and Average Citizens, Gilens&Page

"When a majority of citizens disagrees with economic elites / organised interests, they generally lose."



USA! USA! infoproc.blogspot.com/2016/01/americ…

Image
Image
1,779 policy issues:

Multivariate analysis indicates that ... average citizens and mass-based interest groups have little or no independent influence.



infoproc.blogspot.com/2016/01/americ…
A wordcel might be clueless as to how his/her country is actually run:

How are preferences actually aggregated?

Who rules?

But a smart guy rationalist techlord STEM dude should probably look carefully at just what kind of Oligarchy we live under...

infoproc.blogspot.com/2016/01/americ…
Image
Read 4 tweets

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