3/ These entities raise money in two very different ways.
Offchain: set up in Delaware and then raise money via the traditional Seed, Series A, Series B, Series C, Series D, etc... until an IPO
Onchain set up as DAOs and then raise money via Seed, Series A... then token!
4/ But along the way, the flow for offchain fundraising broke down.
a) The VC mania of 2021 drove insane valuations. Companies raised at 100x revenue. Sounds good, but it wasn't
b) The IPO market dried up
c) Institutional capital hasn't come in at the later stages
5/ So now, you have this big swath of companies that raised at insane valuations in 2021 who now need to raise again.
Unfortunately for them, if they raised again it would likely be a 60-80% down round.
For example, ABC company had $10M of revenue. They raised at 100x revenue in 2021 and got a $1B valuation. Now they have $20M of revenue but the multiple is only 15x revenue so their valuation is now $300M.
6/ If you're a founder, you will do anything to avoid that.
Down rounds can be a nightmare. It's demotivating for employees. Investors are pissed. You might have to fully recap which sucks.
In general it kills momentum.
7/ Let's get back to Kaito.
Remember how there are two types of companies? Offchain and onchain.
Kaito would be have been bucketed as offchain.
They're not a DEX. They're not a chain. They're not an L2. They're not a staking provider. They're a research and data company.
8/ Again usually the funding for these types of companies is: Series A, Series B, Series C, etc... then IPO
But they broke the mold.
Instead of staying on this path, they launched a token.
And it went live at $1B+ ! Much higher than they would've got if they raised a round.
9/ I see a lot of people talking about will price go up or down. For that, I have no idea.
But what I do know is that every founder of every "centralized" / offchain company is looking at this very closely.
The regulatory landscape has opened up.
Now if you're a founder, do you really want to go raise a downround? What if you could launch a token instead.
10/ One of my predictions at the beginning of the year was that:
1/ I finally read Leopold Aschenbrenner's essay series on AI: Situational Awareness
Everyone, regardless of your interest in AI, should read this.
I took notes, they're sloppy but figured I'd share.
Welcome to the future:
2/ from gpt4 to AGI: counting the OOMs
- ai progress is rapid. gpt-2 to gpt-4 went from preschooler to smart high schooler in 4 years
- we can expect another jump like that by 2027. this could take us to agi
- progress comes from 3 things: more compute, better algorithms, and "unhobbling" (making models less constrained)
- compute is growing ~0.5 orders of magnitude (OOMs) per year. that's about 3x faster than moore's law
- algorithmic efficiency is also growing ~0.5 OOMs/year. this is often overlooked but just as important as compute
- "unhobbling" gains are harder to quantify but also huge. things like RLHF and chain-of-thought reasoning
- we're looking at 5+ OOMs of effective compute gains in 4 years. that's another gpt-2 to gpt-4 sized jump
- by 2027, we might have models that can do the work of ai researchers and engineers. that's agi (!!)
- we're running out of training data though. this could slow things down unless we find new ways to be more sample efficient
- even if progress slows, it's likely we'll see agi this decade. the question is more "2027 or 2029?" not "2027 or 2050?"
3/ from AGI to superintelligence: the intelligence explosion
- once we have agi, progress won't stop there. we'll quickly get superintelligence
- we'll be able to run millions of copies of agi systems. they'll automate ai research
- instead of a few hundred researchers at a lab, we'll have 100 million+ working 24/7. this could compress a decade of progress into less than a year
- we might see 5+ OOMs of algorithmic gains in a year. that's another gpt-2 to gpt-4 jump on top of agi
- there are some potential bottlenecks, like limited compute for experiments. but none seem enough to definitively slow things
- superintelligent ai will be unimaginably powerful. it'll be qualitatively smarter than humans, not just faster
- it could solve long-standing scientific problems, invent new technologies, and provide massive economic and military advantages
- we could see economic growth rates of 30%+ per year. multiple economic doublings in a year is possible
- the intelligence explosion and immediate aftermath will likely be one of the most volatile periods in human history
1/ Spent the day at the Coinbase State of Crypto summit.
10/10 event.
Many pensions, endowments, brokerages, asset managers, banks, etc in attendance. Leaving very optimistic.
Scribbled notes during some talks, sharing here:
2/ Brett Tejpaul (head of institutional) opened up the event.
- there's a huge generation of wealth ($70 trillion) going from old to young. 90% of this young generation is disillusioned with the financial system
- 1/3 of the top 100 hedge funds in the world are already onboarded with Coinbase
3/ First panel with Alesia Haas (coinbase CFO) and b (CIO of ETF/Index investments at blackrock)
Baller panel, maybe my favorite. Lot of notes.
Samara:
- Got pitched 5 years ago on doing Bitcoin ETFs. Said no need. Now institutional demand for Bitcoin forced them to do it
- Today 80% of their Bitcoin ETF is bought by self-directed investors buying through their own brokerage... still huge wave of institutional capital coming
- Financial advisors still wary but that’s their job to be wary
- Can’t comment on eth etf bc have active filing
- Also excited about tokenization... demand for tokenized funds (tokenized short duration treasury fund) coming from crypto native firms doing treasury management
- We saw digitization of every asset. Now we’re going to see tokenization of every asset, feels obvious
- Tokenized treasuries shouldn't compete with stablecoins. Stablecoins are for payments. Money market funds are a liquid investment strategy
- Few years ago we thought private permissioned blockchains would lead. We now realize public blockchains are better so we don’t fragment liquidity
- Crypto has a branding problem. This term RWA means something totally different in banking world. Also implies crypto isn’t real world assets. Need to stop using "RWA"
Alesia:
- 40% of institutional clients adopt 3+ products in their first quarter
- Net inflows of $12b in 3 months fastest growing in history
- Both coinbase and blackrock have many clients sitting on sidelines waiting for regulatory clarity
- Does coinbase support trump? We’re here to support 52m americans who hold crypto and they can vote however they want to vote