Israeli PM Netanyahu laid out his vision for southern Syria:
1) IDF will remain indefinitely across on the Hermon Mt. 2) Syrian forces won't be allowed south of Damascus. 3) IDF will ensure safety for the Druze in Syria.
Establishing a de facto autonomous Druze zone.
Thread.
A coalition of Druze have announced the formation of the Sweida Military Council.
The militia seeks to unite Druze forces and acquire the ability to ensure the safety of the populace in southern Syria.
The only obvious threat they could counter are Jolani's forces in Damascus.
The Council's statement can be found on this Kurdish Media post.
Essentially, they have thrown their lot in with the Kurdish SDF: they are willing to remain part of Syria, but they want local autonomy, and are willing to use military force to keep it.
In reference to Netanyahu, the military leader of the Druze force, Tariq al-Shoufi, "extended gratitude to all those who support the Military Council’s stance and contribute to protecting the Druze community and ensuring regional stability." (@RojavaNetwork).
Several armed groups in the region have released statements in support:
However, this diplomatic gambit is not without resistance. Various Druze players are interested in preventing an alliance with Israel, well documented in the attached thread:
I have written about the interests of the players in the region a few times, see bellow.
Essentially, the Druze receive protection from the Islamists in Damascus,
Israel receives a buffer zone between the homeland and the Turkish-Islamist alliance.
Israeli media reports that the IDF is offering the Druze of southern Syria employment opportunities inside the state of Israel.
Economically, life for Israeli Druze is much better than that of their Syrian cousins. This may be a tactic to encourage support for the new alliance.
If the Jabal al-Druze autonomous zone survives, it will cement the relationship between the Jewish and Druze nations.
Israel would become the protector of a majority of the Middle East's Druze, the fate of the two people's would be intertwined.
Netanyahu's strategy seeks to counter Erdogan's attempt to co-opt Syria.
The Druze and the Kurds seem to be gravitating towards Israel's orbit because they know the moment Trump pulls out of Syria, the Sunni-Turkish forces will overrun them.
"The hostage deal is a mistake, undoubtedly, but one the Israeli government has to make.
While the agreement will endanger the lives of IDF soldiers, and raise the likelihood of copycat attacks in the future, the political constellation has forced Netanyahu's hand."
Thread.
Those were the words I wrote in Nov. 22, '23, before the previous hostage deal between Israel and Hamas was signed.
As the sentiment against the current deal is boiling to the point of hysteria, it is time to do this again.
1/14
The deal promises a release of 33 Israelis (women & children) in return for 990 terrorists.
During this time, the IDF will withdraw from population centers in Gaza, and 600 trucks of humanitarian aid will enter the strip a day.
Following yesterday's discussion of Israeli annexation of Druze villages, Erdogan publicly states that Syria's major cities could become Turkish provinces.
Yesterday, Dec. 14, 2024, President of Turkey spoke before his party at Sakarya.
He indicated that the post-WWI situation in the middle east was over. Essentially, he is saying what everyone has known for years: The Sykes-Picot paradigm is a mess and needs to be junked.
Of course Erdogan DIDN'T say that he was GOING to annex parts of Syria.
The statement was hypothetical, it could easily mean that he will annex the whole country.
It could also mean that he isn't going to annex anything at all.
It's been two days since Assad fled Syria, the government collapsed, and the rebels took power.
Why then does the fighting continue?
Why is Turkey bombing northern Syria?
And what are the key Turkish interests in Syria?
Thread.
Turkey played a pivotal role in toppling the Assad regime, supplying HTS with armored vehicles & Toyotas.
The Rebels; "Shaheen" suicide drone is allegedly of Ukrainian design, how it found its way to Syria is still unclear, but Turkey may have played a role
Furthermore, Turkey exerts direct control over the Syrian National Army.
Together with their proxies, they took control of large regions in Northern Syria between 2016-2019.