"Trump-Russia", by which people mean a variety of different ideas and explanatory theories ranging from "omg Agent Krasnov!" to "senior citizen being steamrolled by Putin", has never been about any kind of secret or non-public information.
It's because of what he's done. (🧵)
In 2016, the only substantive change that the Trump campaign wanted made to the Republican Party platform was support for lethal aid to Ukraine.
In 2017, once elected, Trump met Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Ambassador Sergey Kislyak alone in the Oval Office a day after firing James Comey because he wouldn't offer Trump public assurances that he wasn't involved with Russia. npr.org/sections/thetw…
In 2019, Trump tried to condition aid to Ukraine on the provision of fabricated Hunter Biden dirt, which later resulted in his first impeachment.
In 2024, as a disgraced out-of-office twice-impeached felon Trump was responsible for Republicans blocking a bipartisan border-security-for-Ukraine-aid compromise.
U.S. intelligence agencies and major news outlets also broke news this year of Russian interference in the American election, always attacking Biden or Harris and supporting Trump.
In 2025, Trump told Ukraine that the aid we've sent them was actually a loan and tried to bully them into a neo-colonialist deal where they surrender their mineral rights to the U.S. as well as conceding territory to Russia.
And, now we're voting alongside Russia, and Belarus, and literally against the rest of the civilized world that we're supposed to lead, on a U.N. vote regarding Ukraine.
These are simply facts.
You don't need a background in intelligence, or a security clearance, or really even very good research skills to know all these facts, because they are all large, public, officially attested-to or -documented events. All I'm doing is putting them in a row, figuratively speaking.
The specific causation here, I don't care - pee tape, 1980s compromise, 1990s capital flight & laundering, Melania, Felix Sater, Trump Tower, whatever. They are irrelevant to the big, obvious, amply-documented, public facts that we can all agree to, and to the practical upshot.
Before November 2024, the primary practical importance to all of us was, let's not vote that guy into the damn Presidency.
Now, I think, it's a lot more like "realize the stakes and educate other people on them before it's too late".
And for people outside the country, like...
Whatever you think he's going to do next on Ukraine, which, I'll admit myself having read news about this asshole for the past 8 years, is unpredictable
Do you think it's going to be good or bad?
Yeah.
That's what's predictable.
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Trump's otherwise-inexplicable comments regarding Zelensky's popularity make sense in this context. It is a lie so easily disproved as to be laughable.
Zelensky is actually substantially more popular than Trump, who has never had an approval rating higher than 50%.
According to my theory, the reason why Trump is talking about Zelensky's approval rating doesn't have a whole lot to do with the actual situation as far as elections, either.
It is especially jarring considering the Napoleonic rhetoric Trump uses himself.
The NIH funding freeze is an interesting anti-disinfo problem
The question is "how do you explain the impact of (here we go) reduced NIH indirect-cost reimbursement for research" and make it more approachable than disinfo
I think the way to explain it is about patriotism
(🧵)
So, this is about reduced funding at the end of the day so examples of NIH research that saved lives might be apropos
This is a fairly obvious answer though I don't think anyone is gonna win a Macarthur Genius Award for realizing that
At a more academic level it strikes me that this goes to the heart of American competitiveness and the way that we subsidize science & medical research in this country
Howard Zinn discusses this a bit; that goes back to a relative of President Bush(es) named Vannevar Bush
In 1956, a United Airlines DC-7 was involved in a midair collision with a Lockheed L-1049 Super Constellation over the Grand Canyon, killing all 128 souls aboard. This is cited as a driving impetus behind the nationalization of American air traffic control.
🧵
I was completely ignorant of all this, this morning, I just looked this up; but when you read about it, you can kind of see why this led to a nationalized air traffic control service.
It starts from just asking 'why' - the 'five whys' exercise, really.
Why did the planes collide?
Because they weren't being tracked in realtime.
Why weren't they being tracked in realtime?
Because they were 'off-airways', which meant, in 1956, in uncontrolled airspace.
Why was there uncontrolled airspace through which PASSENGER PLANES flew?
The odds that we go to some kind of incredibly stupid war with a NATO ally and partner, Denmark, over Greenland, increases from "negligible" to "non-negligible" because our country just made an abusive, vapid, Deus-Vult-tattoo-having vetbro talkshow host into our SecDef
🧵
The odds of nuclear weapons use within the next four years goes up, because consultation with SecDef is supposed to be a check on the President's authorization of nuclear launch, and it is laughable to think Hegseth will serve as any kind of check to Trump
At this point, if Trump had a senior moment and said "let's nuke Mexico!" it is difficult to envision a 25th-Amendment Cabinet majority, or any kind of internal check in the Defense command chain, that would actually stop him from doing that.