Thread by @Katulis

1 - Trump & Vance's use of troll power against Zelenskyy in the Oval Office is likely to backfire and not produce the stated results.

politico.com/news/2025/02/2…

2 - Troll power (noun) - a negative form of soft power that applies the slashing mockery and grandstanding rhetorical gamesmanship prevalent on X or 4Chan to interactions between states and world leaders.

mei.edu/publications/t…

3 - Troll power comes from trolling – defined as "to antagonize (others) online by deliberately posting inflammatory, irrelevant, or offensive comments or other disruptive content."

liberalpatriot.com/p/ukraine-is-t…

4 - Trolling has gone viral in the real world and geopolitics over the past decade.

Trump has put it on steroids - but it rarely achieves its intended results.

5 - Troll power is increasingly augmenting the two traditional forms of power – hard and soft power.

6 - Troll power seeks not to persuade or even coerce but to “own” and weaken friend and foe alike through verbal denigration designed to confuse, provoke, and divide them.

7 - Trump/Vance, instead of building trust, confidence and coalitions, use troll power in efforts to gain advantage and compliance - but it rarely if ever produces tangible results.

It does make for addictive click bait and shocking must-see tv, though.

8 - Troll power’s effect is magnetic because it engages audiences and reaches them daily through multiple platforms: it taps deeply into the psychology and very identities of people.

9 - Troll power theatrics and actions disrupt the status quo and have the potential to shift power balances over time.

10 - But as former House Speaker Sam Rayburn once said, “Any jackass can kick down a barn, but it takes a good carpenter to build one.”

11- The geopolitical costs of troll power have been high.

It actively sows divisions, creates barriers, and nurtures a nasty, anarchic environment that sees only bullies and victims instead of well-intentioned opponents who can work together to achieve results.

12 - In an international system increasingly defined by troll power, win-lose scenarios and costly miscalculations are more likely.

The overuse of troll power further erodes the international order.

13 - It will take time for the dust from this afternoon's episode of the reality tv show "Wacky Oval Office" to be fully absorbed.

But it's not likely to produce a credible pathway to a sustainable peace in Ukraine - in part because it incentivizes more actors to use force.

14 - Trump & Vance like to posture as if they want peace - as if giving in to bullies and terrorists is a real path - but they aren't doing much yet but undermining the trust and confidence of most of America's partners.