Thread by @jenanmoussa

1/ Clashes between Druze & HTS in Damascus. Druze refusing to hand over their areas to HTS. And HTS reluctant to give in to Druze, fearing other minorities might follow. And Israel now threatening to invade and "help" the Druze. Here a thread on chaos in Syria's south:

2/ The situation in Syria's south is complicated. So, let's start with the most recent developments: The fighting in Damascus suburb Jaramana between armed Druze groups and HTS. Jaramana is here on the map:

3/ Couple of days ago, an armed member of the new Syrian security forces was killed in Jaramana. Not exactly clear what happened. But the story goes that after he shot in the air, Druze gunmen in Jaramana responded to this. A fire fight erupted & the Syrian fighter was killed.

4/ On Saturday, the new Syrian gov (basically HTS) sent Sunni fighters to Jaramana. In clashes with Druze gunmen, 1 Druze was killed and 9 wounded. Mind you, this is all inside Damascus. Jaramana is very strategically located between the city center and Damascus int airport.

5/ In the meantime, 100 kilometers south of Jaramana, fighters in the Druze stronghold of Suwayda, also rushed to Jaramana to help their Druze brothers in Damascus.

6/ To make matters even more complicated, Israeli media reported that Israeli PM instructed the IDF to prepare to defend Jaramana. "We will not allow the extremist Islamic regime in Syria to harm the Druze." Israeli social media also pushed this map showing Israeli intentions:

7/ It is quite surprising that Israel threatened to send troops into Damascus. At the other hand, since the fall of Assad, Israel already advanced outside the occupied Golan. Israeli troops are now only 60 kms away from Damascus. If unopposed; that's only a one-hour drive.

8/ Israel's threat to intervene in southern Syria isn't new. Recently Israeli airstrikes targeted southern Syria. And last Sunday Netanyahu said Israel won't allow HTS or the new Syrian army "to enter the area south of Damascus."

9/ Netanyahu said: "We demand the complete demilitarization of southern Syria in the provinces of Quneitra, Deraa and Suweida from the forces of the new regime. Likewise, we will not tolerate any threat to the Druze community in southern Syria." msn.com/en-us/politics…

10/ Israel is clearly using existing tension between the Syrian Druze and the new Islamist HTS rulers to its own advantage. For Israel, "helping Syria's Druze" would coincide with the creation of a buffer zone inside Syria, safeguarding Israel's northeast.

11/ There are indeed traditionally (historical) problems between the authorities in Damascus and the Druze. Don't forget that Syria's Druze had their own state in the French mandate of Syria between 1921 and 1936.

12/ Also, during the recent civil war, Druze areas in Syria largely tried to stay out of the war. The area of Suwayda (in the south) was for many years more or less a neutral area, avoiding taking full side of either the governmemt or the opposition.

13/ However, a couple of incidents during the Syrian revolution that turned to a civil war between Jabhat al Nusra (former Al Qaeda, now HTS) and the Druze community, very much created distrust between the Druze and the jihadists.

14/ For instance, Jabhat al Nusra in June 2015 committed a massacre in the Druze village of Qalb Lozeh in Idlib. As Nusrah fighters tried to confiscate the houses of Druze, they killed 20 villagers.

15/ Also, Druze in jihadist areas often were forced to convert. Even back in 2012, there were already fights between Islamists and Druze in Jaramana. And also in 2012 Nusra kidnapped senior Druze dignitary Jamal Ezzeddine and sixteen of his men. Ezzedine was later killed.

16/ The worst incident for the Druze took place on 25 July 2018 when members of ISIS attacked the Druze stronghold of Suwayda and randomly killed 200 citizens. This attack was by far the most bloody attack on the Druze in living memory.

17/ So due to all the past bloodshed, there is a lot of distrust between many Druze and the new HTS rulers. For instance, until now the authorities in the Druze city of Suwayda have not allowed HTS fighters to enter the area.

18/ All in all, the distrust between the Druze and Syria's new Islamist rulers has now created this almost surreal situation whereby Israel is suddenly positioning itself as the savior of Syria's Druze.

19/ Very awkward for the Druze of course. Yes, the Druze are worried to be ruled by HTS but Israel's support is creating more problems for them with many Sunnis who now claim that the Druze want to break up Syria.

20/ It is for me impossible to know the percentage of Druze who would support this kind of Israeli "protection". But it clearly has given a new and dangerous element to this already complicated and sensitive situation.

21/ In the meantime, the latest from the ground is that the Druze in Jaramana (the Damascus suburb) and the government fighters have reached a temporary ceasefire and agreement.

22/ Acc to leaked information, agreement says:
Druze will hand over individuals involved in the killing of the security officer.
Druze will keep their checkpoints but will allow an HTS convoy to drive through Jaramana.
Return of the (pro Damascus) police to Jaramana.