Thread by @KofmanMichael

The suspension of U.S. assistance for Ukraine is a very unfortunate and significant development, but it may not have immediate impact. Ukraine is far less dependent on the U.S. for day to day battlefield needs in 2025, than it was in earlier periods of the war. 1/

Ukraine’s current approach to defensive operations combines mines, strike drones, and traditional artillery fires to attrit Russian forces at 0-30km. Most of the casualties are now inflicted with mines, and drones, which are produced in Ukraine. 2/

Traditional artillery fires are less relevant at the moment, and there is a relative parity between the two sides. In combination with munitions recently delivered by the U.S. in recent months, which frontloaded supplies, Europeans could sustain Ukraine through this year. 3/

However, Ukraine is likely to begin metering fire rates at this point given the uncertainty and therefore Russia will reestablish some degree of fires advantage, but this is no longer decisive, given more than 50% of casualties are inflicted by drones of various types. 4/

The issue becomes more problematic when looking at long-range precision strike beyond 30km, here systems like GMLRS are still quite relevant, and interceptors for US provided advanced air defense/missile defense . The impact will be pronounced over time. 5/

Another important area is maintenance, parts, and technical support. Suspension will result in degradation of operational readiness over time. It’s also unclear if the cutoff involves intelligence support, training, and other forms of indirect support. 6/

Much depends on the extent Ukraine has been stockpiling munitions/parts and where Europeans can step in, although in some cases they have low inventories, and in others U.S. retains the ability to deny any transfers. The impact will probably be much more visible in a few months.

Finally, if it is just halt to further shipments of munitions/equipment then the effect will be in specific categories of capability, but if all forms of U.S. support are suspended then it is more difficult to assess the systemic impact, and follow on ripple effects.