Thread by @Andrew__Roth

Keith Kellogg at @CFR_org this morning suggests that the US is engaged in "strategic overreach" in Ukraine, citing Paul Kennedy's work on "imperial overstretch" that can potentially lead to the fall of a Great Power.

Kellogg says he had "ringside seat" for Zelenskyy Trump meeting: "What happened was two nation state leaders coming into a meeting with objectives that was clearly not in alignment with one another, and there was a disconnect publicly between the goals of the two administrations"

Kellogg: Trump recognizes that US needs to "reset relations with Russia" in order to secure US national security. "The continued isolation and lack of engagement with the Russians as the war in Ukraine continues is no longer a viable strategy."

In conversation with @margbrennan, Trump envoy Keith Kellogg says of US intelligence cutoff: "Very candidly, they brought it on themselves"

Audible gasp in the room at @CFR_org after Kellogg said of intelligence cutoff: the Ukrainians "brought it on themselves"

Interesting that Kellogg has twice listed the advisors surrounding Trump as Rubio, Waltz, Bessent, Lutnick but omits Putin envoy Steve Witkoff. Finally when brought up by @margbrennan, he notes that at State: "Our offices are on the 7th floor, [Witkoff's] are on the 5th floor."

Kellogg on effect of US military aid and intelligence cutoff to Ukraine: "It's like hitting a mule in the face with a two by four, you know. You got their attention."

Kellogg on Ukraine cutoff: "It's not like they didn't know this was coming. They got a fair warning. I told them, and they were told last week as well." Kellogg now comparing speaking to Ukrainian leaders like speaking to his two granddaughters who call him "Pop pop".

Kellogg repeatedly describing Ukrainian and Russian demands as "term sheets." "Do we have a term sheet from the Russians broadly, and do we have a term sheet from Ukrainians? The answer is yes and no." Wants to understand the "kind of pressures we can apply."