Momentum Chaser Profile picture
Mar 7 10 tweets 4 min read Read on X
The EPA press release echoes NY Post, which on Wednesday published one of the most pathetically under-researched articles I've ever seen. It reads like a @DataRepublican post, alleging that the EPA gave BILLIONS to unaccountable groups that had only been formed recently.

🧵
The first example is Climate United Fund, which the author complains formed only months before being awarded $7B.

In reality, it's a joint venture between Calvert Impact, Self-Help Ventures Fund, and Community Preservation Corp.

They are 30, 44, and 50 years old, respectively. Image
Calvert is an investment firm focused on social and environmental impact. The latter two are CDFIs - credit unions that invest in revitalizing underserved communities across the country.

JVs that draw on expertise of multiple orgs to meet the needs of a contract is not unusual.
The author, @isareport, goes on to claim that "because the company is so new, there is no publicly published accounting of how it plans to spend the $7B". Really? The 50-page plan is literally published on their website. It's almost like you have no interest in finding the truth! Image
If that's too much reading for you, @isareport, you could maybe spend 5 seconds scanning the FAQ where they explain both their high level goals & the fact that the EPA literally ENCOURAGED APPLICANTS TO FORM COALITIONS! This isn't a conspiracy. You just fucking suck at your job. Image
*ahem* anyways, now let's take a look what ACTUAL political corruption looks like.

As I've previously reported, @KristiNoem's DHS awarded a $65M advertising contract to SAFE AMERICA MEDIA, a shell corporation formed 3 days before the closed solicitation.

Unlike Climate United, "SAFE AMERICA MEDIA" has NO public facing information whatsoever, and didn't even have to compete with other companies to justify its funding.

In this case, the LLC was likely formed to hide the actual identity of the contractor, which turns out to be...
DMM media - a media firm staffed by Republican political operatives that appears to work exclusively on microtargeted ads for Republican campaigns.

Both DMM & "Safe America Media" are run by Mike McElwain, a former deputy political director of the NRCC.

sourcewatch.org/index.php/Mich…Image
Another $200M contract was awarded to People Who Think LLC, which has a public-facing website but was founded by Jay Connaughton - the guy who effectively ran Trump's entire 2016 TV ad campaign.

heraldguide.com/columns/louisi…
So here's a quarter billion dollars allocated to state-funded propaganda being funneled into partisan organizations that helped get Trump elected. Good thing the genius investigators at @newyorkpost are here to save the day by smearing perfectly legitimate organizations!

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More from @electricfutures

Mar 6
DOGE currently lists $30B of cuts consisting of $15.2B to contracts, $14.5B to grants, & $470M to leases.

After fixing accounting errors, this amounts to $4B/year of contracts and $170M/year of lease cancellations. If we assume similar term for grants, total is roughly $8B/year?
(Grants can't be independently audited as DOGE currently provides no metadata)

Of note, 80% of cuts came from dismantling USAID. Today, Supreme Court ruled that Trump admin must release $2B to contractors for work rendered, so this # should come down.

archive.ph/yTITR
My commentary: why did we spend $40M on a slipshod flock of twits to turn off USAID? By all accounts, they made no effort to understand the importance of the programs they killed, and stranded US workers in dangerous situations abroad in the process.

Read 7 tweets
Feb 24
This is utter nonsense.

a) This is not what Elon said at all
b) Appeal to false authority (he makes rockets!)
c) Weak analogy - calls Social Security a "complex system" likened to ML because it has... 3 steps?
d) Applies irrelevant concepts, none of which are described correctly
"These errors compound, not linearly, but exponentially"

No, these errors would compound sublinearly. If we have an error rate e for a 2 step process, the probability of correctness is (1-e)^2, or 1 - 2e + e^2, which is always greater than 1 - 2e (simple addition of errors).
"A small data flaw at the base level snowballs into massive discrepancies"

You're describing chaos. Complex estimators with millions of parameters can overfit to noise. Long iterative processes can diverge. This is all irrelevant; nothing about SSA is "complex" in this sense.
Read 5 tweets
Feb 21
The first $16M of @KristiNoem's wasteful $200M advertising campaign "warning illegal aliens to leave our country" has been awarded to Safe America Media LLC after a "competitive procurement process"

So who is Safe America Media LLC?

🧵 Image
Safe America Media LLC is a shell company that was incorporated in Delaware 2 weeks (!) ago. That's only 11 days before Noem made the announcement. No wonder they don't even exist in SAM's entity search.

So what did this newborn vendor do to win this contract?... Image
Well, the contract is tied to a residential address that I was able to link via property records to... the former deputy political director of the National Republican Congressional Committee.

I can see why they hired the guy! What's DMM, where he works as a partner? Image
Read 11 tweets
Feb 20
SCOOP: @DOGE does damage control

A diff of "savings" estimates from doge.gov between today and yesterday shows that 4 rows have been edited - all corresponding to errors I called out in my thread yesterday. Let's see what they changed!

🧵 x.com/DOGE/status/18…
Change #1 pertains to the (now infamous) $8B vs. $8M mistake, which @DOGE claims was not factored into their total savings estimate. Thus, while the website now lists $8B less in savings, the headline $55B remains unchanged. Concerning...

Image
Change #2 pertains to the $2B in savings obtained by triple counting the total set-aside for a one USAID IDV. @DOGE saw that I said it was triple-counted and arbitrarily deleted two of the rows. The third is still erroneously listed as $655M.

Image
Read 21 tweets
Feb 18
After several delays, @DOGE has finally posted its purported savings. Why did it take so long to create a simple webpage with a 1000-row table? Who knows! Let's dig in.

Headline number: $55B saved. They list the savings per nixed contract. This should be easy to verify then.

🧵
The first thing I did is add up the "saved" column for all canceled contracts and real estate. The numbers are $16.5B and $0.14B, respectively. Odd...

Since almost all of the purported savings come from contracts, we'll focus on that.

2/
The single biggest ticket item is a DHS contract listed as saving $8 billion. Wow, that's a huge contract!

Actually no, it's $8 million. They must have tried to automate scraping the FPDS form and failed.

That means we're down to $8.5B in savings.

3/ Image
Read 11 tweets

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