1/ Congress comes back next week and hopefully will move stablecoin legislation quickly.
The Senate has more to do on GENIUS, then STABLE has to pass the House, then the bills may need to be reconciled before POTUS signs. This is doable by end of summer.
But market structure...
2/ I'm less optimistic about market structure in 2025.
The House put out a fresh discussion draft on May 5. It's a spiritual successor to FIT21, but there's a lot of new material to vet here.
There's talk about marking it up on June 10, but I don't know, that's a tall order.
3/ A markup is a big step. It means a bill is ready to move forward to a vote.
Everyone is working tirelessly on this draft, but it would be a little surprising if it's ready in two weeks.
Few things move that fast in Congress, and this is a big bill that needs close vetting.
1/ The Reserve and Stockpile are likely good for US fiscal policy and market prices, but neither are enough to make the USA the crypto capital of the world.
For that, we need new policies empowering entrepreneurs to launch protocols and products made in the USA.
Here's how 🧵
2/ Being "the crypto capital" doesn't mean holding the most crypto wealth compared to other countries.
It means having the most innovation, the most jobs, the most influence, the most economic activity.
To achieve that goal, government must support businesses, not just assets.
3/ The Biden administration did this exactly wrong.
It tried to drive the industry out of the USA by making it impossible for crypto companies to do business here.
FDIC et al. tried to debank us. SEC et al. tried to regulate us to death. DOJ et al. tried to imprison our devs.
It's very rare for a federal circuit court to find that an agency has violated the APA by acting arbitrarily and capriciously.
The DC Circuit just delivered a huge embarrassment for the SEC.
But the ETF isn't approved yet 🧵
2/ The DC Circuit soundly rejected the SEC's view that Grayscale's ETF proposal was not "designed to prevent fraudulent and manipulative acts and practices."
The SEC has spent a full decade denying spot bitcoin ETF proposals under this reasoning. That era has now come to an end.
3/ But the court didn't order the SEC to approve Grayscale's ETF proposal. It just said the SEC's analysis on the "fraud and manipulation" issue was wrong.
Now, the SEC has to go back and review Grayscale's proposal again, with the court's ruling in mind.
2/ Every SEC enforcement action must follow the “Wells process.”
In that process, the SEC Commissioners are meant to act as neutral arbiters, impartially weighing the evidence and arguments presented by SEC staff (the prosecutors) and the enforcement target (the defendant).
3/ When it comes to digital assets, Chair Gensler is far from a neutral arbiter.
Since his appointment, he has repeatedly stated his view that all digital assets other than bitcoin are securities, end of story.