On November 5, 2024, Josh Mandell, a legendary Wall Street trader, called his shot when Bitcoin was trading at $74K.
Here is a breakdown of the prophecy and what it means for Bitcoin's price action this cycle.
A 🧵:
1/ Who is Josh Mandell?
Josh is a retired Wall Street trader with some of the most impressive credentials.
Per his Twitter bio, he has worked at Salomon Brothers during its heyday of 1990-98 (remember Liar's Poker? 😉).
Most recently, he was a Trader at Caxton Associates, a $12 Billion AUM Hedge Fund with headquarters in New York, Singapore, Monaco and Dubai.
2/ Why Should You Trust His Bitcoin Judgement?
As the saying in Bitcoin goes, "Don't trust, verify".
That said, Josh Man has been trading Bitcoin/MSTR in public for the last year (you can see all his trades in his history).
He originally seeded this portfolio with $2.1 million (approximately 1 year ago).
As of March 7, 2025, it has ballooned to $22 million.
(By the way, it does not account for today's massive 12% pop in MSTR).
3/ The Prophecy
Below is a screenshot of the original post of The Prophecy.
Take a second to enjoy the poetry and become a witness to Bitcoin history.
4/ Decoding the Dates
Dates Mentioned: 11/7, 1/16/25, 3/14/25.
These could be specific points in time where the poster anticipates big moves or turning points in Bitcoin’s price cycle.
Let's see how he did.
11/7/24 - Bitcoin was $74K and is just beginning to break out.
1/16/25 - Bitcoin was $103K which marked the temporary local top.
3/14/24 (today) - The $84K base that he mentioned as the beginning of what he calls "The Fourth Turning".
Here is today's market close 👀
5/ When $84K Becomes the Base, What Happens Next?
“360 more … A trio of fours, times a grand”
This is likely referencing a move from $84K to around $444K (three fours, times $1,000).
The poem suggests that $444K is his ultimate top forecast for Bitcoin this cycle.
This is obviously not financial advice but do with this what you will.
If you enjoyed this post, please like and share it with a Bitcoin friend!
As an ex-Wealth Advisor recently featured in the WSJ, I write about Bitcoin-related content for fellow retail investors, Wealth Advisors and Bitcoin companies.
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As the Bitcoin world is still wrapping their heads around Josh's $84K Prophecy, one should note his sober tone.
Let's investigate what he means by the Fourth Turning and how we should prepare for it.
A 🧵:
1/ What is the "Fourth Turning"?
The Fourth Turning is in reference to a book written by William Strauss and Neil Howe.
William Strauss studied at Harvard University and has worked in the political arenas while Neil Howe has worked at Blackstone and later served as Managing Director at Hedgeye.
Both authors believe that society moves through four generational phases every 80–90 years—each phase lasts around 20–22 years.
These phases (AKA "Turnings") repeat in a consistent cycle: a High, an Awakening, an Unraveling, and finally a Crisis.
2/ “Great Power Cycle” (The Previous 4 Turning Cycles)
Let's look at the previous 4 Turnings to see how everything transpired:
The High: 1865–1886
Backdrop: The U.S. just emerged from the Civil War, beginning Reconstruction.
Mood: Society aimed for unity, rebuilding, and industrial growth.
Key Traits: Strong political and cultural institutions, rapid economic expansion (sometimes dubbed the “Gilded Age”).
2. The Awakening: 1886–1908
Social Climate: Reform movements, including the “Third Great Awakening.”
Cultural Shift: People began to question the industrial capitalist order, pushing for progressive reforms (child labor laws, anti-trust regulations, etc.).
3. Unraveling: 1908–1929
Era Overview: Increasing social and cultural fragmentation.
Key Events: World War I (1914–1918), followed by a “return to normalcy” in the 1920s.
Mood: Society was prosperous on the surface (the “Roaring Twenties”), but underlying tensions and imbalances grew.
4. The Crisis: 1929–1946
Defining Events: The Great Depression (1929–1939) and World War II (1939–1945).
Outcome: Massive upheaval that reshaped global politics and economics.
Resolution: Victory in WWII led to a new postwar “High”—which then kicks off the next cycle (1946–1964).
But how can we access its value without liquidating it?
Enter Bitcoin-backed bonds by @OnrampBitcoin and it's partnership with @ArchLending.
Here are the details that you should know: A 🧵
1/ What is a Bitcoin-backed loan?
A Bitcoin-backed loan works similarly to using real estate as collateral, except your property here is digital.
You pledge a specified amount of BTC as security for a loan, granting you immediate liquidity.
By collateralizing your Bitcoin instead of selling, you keep your position intact, enabling you to potentially benefit from any long-term price appreciation.
2/ The Old vs. The New
Traditional lending often involves tedious credit checks and substantial documentation, which can delay access to funds.
Since Bitcoin is the most pristine and transparent collateral, rather than your credit score, the lending process is greatly speed up.
OnRamp's focus towards Transparency & Secure Collateral Management is provided through the following features:
Segregated Addresses:
Your collateral is held in a separate on-chain wallet address—never pooled or rehypothecated (so no Celsius-like rug pull).
Verified Destination Addresses:
Onramp independently confirms wallet addresses to ensure a high level of security at every step. Addresses are also shared with clients so they can verify themselves.
Security & Compliance:
Collateral is stored with a leading qualified custodian, Anchorage, in a bankruptcy remote US-based trust. Arch is a fully compliant US-based entity, able to lend in most US states and international jurisdictions.