Jonathan Walsh Profile picture
Mar 16 72 tweets 50 min read Read on X
A rainy Melbourne Sunday seems like the perfect opportunity to #DonTheReplay.

So here goes.

#DonTheStat | #GoDons Image
Q1. Redman in the middle, raises some eyebrows. I think it's just to add size and defensive structure, with Setterfield unavailable, against a big Hawks midfield.

He's defensive cover here and I'm not sure we see him play as a genuine mid, I think he pops out, Durham goes to Day Image
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Shiel's first involvement as a HB is off the back of the first stoppage of the game and a nice kick to Merrett.

Zach probably has Kako on, who doesn't get used and puts his head down to get to the next contest.

Caddy leads into Langford's lane and takes his opponent with him. Image
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At the first throw in, you can see some confusion. Redman is trying to pop out and goes to Watson, but Nash (who is equally as confused) is left free at the stoppage.

Eventually Redman pushes across and Prior comes up to Watson. Image
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Martin and the wingers positioned to stop the aggressive Hawthorn kick. I think we did a reasonable job of this throughout the night (when we didn't turnover through poor errors).

Force them slow and sideways and Perkins tackle nearly gets us the ball back. Image
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Caddy's recovery from air to ground is unreal, but has a bit of a 'Sam Draper moment' and kicked instead of handballing to Langford.

We flip to defence mode and protect the switch. Prior cuts the space and we get a throw in. Image
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At the previous ball up, Redman was with Day in our Defensive Half. In our forward half, Redman is with Moore, Durham to Day. Image
Hawthorn are so good at this. Martin comes up to help Kako pressure, but it gives them a numerical advantage.

We work back well to slow them once they get it to the wing, but they are able to pick their way through. Image
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Continued...

Newcombe's kick is a really poor one and we're able to win it back. Martin's intent is a positive, our want to work back is an improvement, Hawks still pick their way through, but our numbers back force Newcombe into a shallow entry. Image
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Isaac Kako's goal was the second best display of skill in that play. Zach's kick, my god. Image
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McKay is right with Hardwick here. This type of match up was always such a big gamble.

McGrath a good spoil, but the ball hits the deck and Hardwick pounces. McKay can't defy physics. Image
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Fingertips away from Redman taking a mark and having a shot.

Instead, Hobbs loses touch on his opponent, gives him way too much leg rope and they use that to go end-to-end for a goal. You can't switch off, not for a single moment. Image
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Ooft. Nic, I love ya, but if you're going to kick into the corridor to what is essentially a 5-on-1, you need to nail it.

This comes back and Watson goals.

I like that he took it on, but the execution wasn't there.

A goal up to 2 down in a blink. Image
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Draper had pushed forward from the ruck.
We turnover Inside 50, but slow them down and force them down the line to a contest.

That's a big win, that's not what Hawthorn want to do. But we end up with Meek & Day on Shiel & Roberts. Day marks. Image
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Nash, Massimo and Amon combine. Roberts has an excuse, he was covering Day. Hobbs trails Amon again.

That match up was a big issue for us, for pace.

Massimo goals. The first bit of this was really good set up to slow Hawthorn down, but we let them out. Image
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Then Tsatas and Ward split the umpire, Meek's ruck work is class for Ward to run onto his left and put it deep Inside 50. Reid is caught ball watching and loses his opponent, Chol pounces.

Hawks 5 goals in a row, to go 4 goals up. Image
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And that's ultimately the difference in the match at the end.

It happens in 5 minutes of footy, where we have a few players, most of them young, switch off and the Hawks make us pay.
Their last goal of Q1. Stoppage in our back half, both teams have a HF at the Stoppage, leaving a HB spare (Shiel).

We win the clearance, but Tsatas kick is under pressure to a contest. He doesn't use Shiel.

Draper makes a contest but the ball comes to ground. Perfect for them. Image
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They use that spare, Draper not the guy you want trying to cover Weddle in this situation. Nor Hobbs trying to cover Amon. He pushes up and close the space on Battle which compounds the problem.

That's it for Q1. Some repeating themes here, small things creating big problems. Image
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Q2. Talk about not finishing off your work.

Draper dropped mark.
Durham dropped mark.
Langford slips. Image
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I got mocked preseason for suggesting McGrath was the regularly the first to fly the flag for his teammates. Image
The three talls.

McKay on Hardwick at the Stoppage.
Ridley on Ginnivan.
Reid on Chol.

Ball hits the deck, Ginni pounces.

*This is after Ridley's incident with Scrimshaw. Image
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The size and power of Redman helps here. Gets through the stoppage and gets the ball forward.

Forward line is well set up. Durham's hands a good.

Good finish by Langford. Image
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This is well worked.
Hobbs -> Jones -> Roberts -> Merrett -> Duursma.

The forwards protect the space well. Duursma works so hard.

This is an improvement. Image
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Amon points to Merrett, but no one goes to him.

Class hands by Tsatas. This really is elite attribute, the goal doesn't happen without it.

Tsatas to Duursma to Merrett. Goal. Image
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Feel like we saw a similar incident paid a free during the game. Image
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Duursma tackling in our goal square.

We squeeze the Hawks into a short in the pocket and then a slow exit down the line.

Prior & Reid spoil out of bounds. Image
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Free Against Hobbs.

Slow exit, down the line. McKay goes but doesn't kill it. Had to. Ball gets over the back.

Redman doesn't respect Watson.

Free Against Draper. Day goals. Image
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No Free.
No Free.
Free.
Free.

3 goals come from Free Kicks. They're there, that's footy. How's the response after half time? I was concerned. Image
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Before we get to that though...I'm going to flick over and watch the Crows game.
Alright, back at it for Q3.

Duzz into the middle on Day. Image
This is some nice work by McKay.

The kick has a little bit of heigh, so he's able to close on Hardwick, get a spoil in, recover and win the ground ball. His handball finds its way to Redman, who then finds Martin. Image
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Martin goes down the line to Caddy, who takes 1 of his 4 Contested Marks for the night. Against 2 Hawks opponents mind you.

Note Kako and Gresham lurking.

Caddy's kick Inside 50 is to Langford's advantage, he draws a free.

The McKay spoil and ground ball win launches a goal. Image
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Durham wins a holding free at the CB and Caldwell takes the advantage. Not sure this is the kick.

Gresham had broken for the short hit up and Perkins was trying to drag Sicily away from that space. Sicily read it best.

Nonetheless it's been a good, early response. Image
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We slow down the exit though, despite the end scoreboard, I think there were some really good signs of this throughout the game, against the toughest ask in the AFL, in this area.

Sicily's kick is incredible, to get to Meek, who then goes inboard. Perkins intercepts Amon's kick. Image
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Reflecting back on the Caldwell kick, Shiel does it well here.

This happens just after the above Intercept, we've gone Inside 50 and won the ball back again after Hawthorn exit.

Shiel hits up Kako on the short, this is where we want to be going Inside 50 from. Image
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Note the space in the pocket, and through the middle.

Jones and Caddy have done the right thing here, I think. Tried to clear out the space for Draper, but they're not quite working together and all go to the same spot. Draper and Jones spoil one another. Image
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Draper good at ground level, ball pings around, get a F50 Ball Up. Draper kicks a point from the Ruck Contest.

A good look at the Kick-In. Haw set play, send numbers left of screen. We have good outliers. Sicily kick to Battle is unreal.

McKay Intercept Mark on the Battle kick. Image
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Shiel gets a holding the ball free and gets moving. Gresham's kick to Jones is a beauty, opens up the ground.

This is better by Draper, he's not a realistic target because Weddle cuts him off, but he takes his opponent away to create space for Caddy. Image
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A bit unfortunate the Barrass is temporarily with Kako, he knows he isn't going to be the kick target and can peel off to help Battle on Caddy, the ball gets spoiled out of bounds. Image
This time Prior went back in the air with intent and won himself a free and we see the benefit he brings with ball in hand. So few capable of hitting this kick inboard to Perkins.

Perkins to Duursma, is also a good kick.

Kako has broken, unfortunately the Hawks get a hand in. Image
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A small sample of why Reid is an exciting prospect. Reads this best, takes an Intercept Mark.

In 2024, this is a slow and probably wide kick.

He takes the aggressive option and places it perfectly so Tsatas can mark. Some pressure on Elijah to hold this too and he does. Image
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Tsatas to Martin, who runs at the Hawks and gets a handball forward, to Perkins.

Perkins almost gets around Weddle, but he has to handball to Hobbs, who is clean and handballs to Jones.

Jones goal, starts with Reid Intercept Mark and him taking the corridor on by foot. Image
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This is good by Harry, not what he's typically known for.
Gets low, puts his body between Newcombe and the ball and gets it in the path of Merrett.

Zach's rushed kick off the ground is deemed "Insufficient Intent". Image
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Another aggressive option coming out of the D50. Roberts had the safe, short option of Caddy.

Took the long, aggressive option of Duursma. The kick hands a bit and Duursma can't quite pull in the mark. Ball Up. Image
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After owning the first 12 minutes of Q3, the Hawks get one back. But we get the next.

We turnover the Hawks kick in, from the second kick. Keep the ball alive Inside 50 and Perkins is on the end of it.

It was all smalls in the build up. Image
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There's something about Archie Roberts.

After the disappointment of a soft free paid against him, he follows up to the next contest and puts a big tackle on Amon and lets him know about it.

He just needs the body/strength, to go with the attitude. Image
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I won't clip it, but the Langford injury is devastating. For him and the context of the game.

We're all over them. We've created two scoring opportunities in a row, turning over Hawthorn exits. This second one after the Martin behind.

Kako's kick just falls short.
Ball bounces around, Redman ends up kicking a point.

Langford hobbles off the ground at the kick-in, Bryan probably had a chance to spoil the ball out of bounds, but he tries to mark over Day. Day wins the ground ball. Image
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The numerical advantage stretches us, the Hawks go the other end and kick a goal.

Langford marks and goals, we get within a goal, instead it's back to three goals.
Caldwell doesn't quite get low enough in the tackle, gets Moore high. He converts.

That's it for Q3. A bit cleaner, a bit of luck and we go in at the break, within a goal. Instead, it's back out to 5 goals.

Our Q3 performance was a lot better than the scoreboard showed. Image
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Alright, Q4. Here goes. Image
We win the 1st CB & get the first F50 Entry. Shiel's kick is a poor one, Sicily marks.

Hawks defenders took 13 Intercept Marks against the Swans. Just 5 against us. We were much better in that regard.

In this situation last season it was a fast exit, this was slow down the line Image
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Duzz runs through the stoppage and this is a very, very aggressive kick.

Roberts gets it to ground and Hobbs gets across to give us the out number. If you're going to take this on, you need this to happen. Get it to ground and outnumber. Image
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Hobbs wins the footy, sets Roberts on his way. Caddy locks it in our F50. Caldwell scrambles a behind from the stoppage. Image
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Here's that Kick In set play @JamesLowrie24

We kicked 13 behinds for the game, so we gave the Hawks plenty of chances. They kicked 2.0 from Kick-Ins.

The first, when Langford was hobbling off, and then this one.

Starts with Hawks stacking one side. Hobbs on Impey. Image
Massimo drags Martin wide, we have no outliers cover.

Frost blocks for Hobbs. And that's all that is needed. Sicily's kick is a beauty.

Shiel has a decision to make, commit to Macdonald, or commit to Impey. He doesn't do either.

Credit to Jones & Martin who don't give up. Image
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Redman can't get off his opponent in time to prevent Macdonald marketing.

About 14 seconds from Sicily's boot, to Macdonald's hands. Image
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Give the hands Sam. He's our best finisher. Image
Jones tackle. McKay Intercept Mark, quick kick forward to Martin. Martin Inside 50.

Perkins Ground Ball, doesn't rush, Caldwell receives and goals.

3 Score Launches for McKay. The equal most of any defender on the ground. Image
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Don't get reward for effort here. Hawks give it up under our pressure, we maintain possession under theirs. Image
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6 or 7 Tackles/Pressure Acts to win it back.

Some quick hands, the Shiel overhead handpass is great. Image
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Tsatas fashions a kick to Caddy. We have two options inboard that Caddy doesn't spot. His kick Inside 50 is spoiled by Frost.

Hunting in numbers, running both ways. Just can't finish it off. Image
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Next Kick-In. Lesson learnt. Martin is guarding the fat side as the numbers head to left of screen.

McKay spoil. Jones pick up, turn and kick to a hard leading Hobbs is classy. Hobbs ignores Caddy, goes to Draper who isn't in great position and the ball hits the deck. Image
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All's well that ends well.

Gresham pressures Massimo into coughing up the footy, gets around Impey and it's a great finish for a goal.

We turn over their kick-in and get a goal back. Image
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Softest of frees at the next CB.

Bryan is caught having to man the mark, because he picked the ball up off the deck. Means he can't push back.

Prior outreached by Weddle.

Hawthorn answer. We really can't catch a break. Image
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McKay Intercept Mark.

McKay -> Perkins -> Martin -> Jones -> backwards to Reid. Image
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Then Reid -> Prior -> McGrath -> Bryan -> McKay. Image
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McKay quickly inboard -> Caldwell -> Prior draws the handball -> Roberts -> Martin. Image
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Hobbs, Merrett, Kako and Caddy stay out of the way.

Draper leads at the kicker. Marks and goals.

Good, composed build up, changing angles. Good forward awareness to create a leading lane. Good delivery, good mark, good finish. Image
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That will do me.

We get within 3 goals twice in Q4 but the Hawks are able to answer straight away.

Frustrating, we did a lot right but didn't make enough of our momentum throughout the night. There's a lot to work on, but more to work with.

On to next week. Thanks for reading.
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More from @JonathanJWalsh

Aug 7, 2024
2023: 11 Wins
2024: 11.5 Wins

2023: 50.4 Inside 50s, Ranked 15th
2024: 55.9 Inside 50s, Ranked 4th

2023: 55.8 Inside 50s Against, Ranked 15th
2024: 49.8 Inside 50s Against, Ranked 6th

🧵

#DonTheStat | #GoDons
2023: -5.4 Inside 50 Differential, Ranked 16th
2024: +6.1 Inside 50 Differential, Ranked 4th

2023: 66.8 Intercepts, Ranked 13th
2024: 68.0 Intercepts, Ranked 6th

2023: -1.2 Intercept Differential, Ranked 15th
2024: +1.8 Intercept Differential, Ranked 7th
2024: 15.54 Intercept Marks, Ranked 8th

2023: +0.2 Centre Clearance Differential, Ranked 11th
2024: +1.1 Centre Clearance Differential, Ranked 3rd

2023: -1.2 Stoppage Clearance Differential, Ranked 13th
2024: -0.9 Stoppage Clearance Differential, Ranked 11th
Read 8 tweets
May 6, 2024
I preface all of what I'm about to say with an acknowledgement that we have a long way to go and I'm looking at small datasets.

After our loss to Port, I think most Dons fans wondered whether it was a blip or a return to normal.

🧵

#DonTheStat | #GoDons
Early indicators are that it was a timely lesson on some areas that needed a tidy up and what happens when you don't give maximum effort.

I've had a look at what has changed pre and post the Port loss. The other caveat here is we played Sydney in the first 3 rounds, who sit...
...on top of the ladder. In the four games since, we haven't played a team that currently sits in the Top 8.

I wondered going into 2024 - would we improve as much as the teams around us, to put ourselves into contention to play finals? We aren't world beaters...
Read 19 tweets
Mar 17, 2024
Round 1 ✅

Time for a dive into the replay.

🧵

#DonTheStat | #GoDons Image
A couple of small things at the first CB.

Worpel is Merrett conscious, that works for us. Zach is happy to sit outside the first layer of the contest, Worpel and Newcombe are the Hawks two best ball winners, Setterfield keeps Newcombe from the drop of the ball. Durham... Image
...ensures he is between his opponent and the drop of the ball and it gives him a clear run at it.

He wins the 1st Centre Clearance of 2024, from his first career Centre Bounce Attendance.

Handballs to Gresham, who should have lowered his eyes, but at least the entry was deep.

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Read 58 tweets
Nov 22, 2023
With Vigo Visentini joining the Essendon Rookie List, Essendon has a full list of 38 Primary Listed players and 4 Rookie Listed players.

We have 2 Category B spots if we go that way, but let's look at our List depth as it stands.

#DonTheStat | #GoDons Image
This isn't an exercise in quality or AFL readiness.
Green equals primary position/role.
Yellow equals secondary/tertiary position/role.
Age in brackets is as at Jan 1, 2024.

Rule of thumb is there has to be some level of exposed form in a role at Training, AFL, VFL, U18 level.
Start with the backline. Players are in age order, not my ranking.

McKay bolsters key defence, I've relegated Laverde to a medium defender, along with Baldwin, but both of them can step up to key post if required. Image
Read 10 tweets
Oct 16, 2023
Moneyball gets thrown around a lot in AFL circles these days. Rarely is it properly understood, with the focus on ‘money’ rather than ‘ball’.

I first read Michael Lewis’ book when it was thrown on my desk whilst I was working at Essendon. Image
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His theory was that if you got players on base more often, you’d score more…
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For the A’s they couldn’t compete with the likes of the Yankees when it did come to money. That matters less in AFL. We all have the same salary cap.

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Read 18 tweets
Aug 14, 2023
Score Involvement

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Ultimately, it's a guide on the ability of a player to influence the scoreboard. Particularly midfielders.

🧵

#GoDons | #DonTheStat Image
Essendon has two midfielders in the Top 20 (mids only) for Average Score Involvements per game in 2023.

Darcy Parish - 6.9 per game. Equal 8th ranked midfielder.

Zach Merrett - 6.6 per game. Equal 17th ranked midfielder.
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Essendon is 6 wins, 2 losses when Darcy Parish has 7 or more Score Involvements in a game.

Essendon is 1 win, 8 losses when he has 6 or less.
Read 7 tweets

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