In defence of Semenya et al, many argue: 1. athletes with 5ARD are female; 2. features associated with 5ARD are normal female variation; 3. these athletes should be included in female sports.
The first claim is incoherent.
To understand 5ARD, let's look at healthy reproductive development.
Both male and female development are well-understood.
Male development 1. Y chromosome carrying functional SRY that directs testes development 2. testes produce hormones, notably testosterone (T) 3. T first drives male internal genitalia development 4. T>DHT conversion drives male external genital development
Female development 1. No Y chromosome and no SRY, so ovarian development is triggered 2. low/no testosterone production from ovaries 3. female internal genitalia can develop in low/no T environment 4. female external genitalia can develop in low DHT environment
I often describe reproductive development as:
Sequential | structures develop in a known chronological order
Coordinated | reproductive anatomy develops as a system, with each part linked mechanistically to others
The "cluster account" of sex attempts to classify individuals by the sum of their parts.
"These Male Bits plus Those Female Bits equals This Sex."
This completely ignores developmental biology, which describes the sequential, coordinated development of a functional system.
So given a functional account of sex that actually reflects biology, let's look at the disorder of sex development that is 5ARD.
The sequential development of 5ARD is mapped against healthy sex development here.
Keen eyes will spot that I omitted the word "coordinated" when describing 5ARD.
That's because it's not coordinated. There has been a break in the chain of development.
And that's because people with 5ARD are missing the enzyme needed in a healthy male to convert T>DHT to make a penis.
External genitalia differentiate from a bipotential tissue field.
A DHT signal (in healthy males) pushes the development of that field towards a penis and scrotum.
No DHT signal (in healthy females) pushes the development of that field towards a clitoris and labia.
People with 5ARD have mutations in a gene called SRD5A2 and this means the enzyme converting T>DHT doesn't work properly.
As a result, people with 5ARD have defects in external genital development. We say they are undervirilised (virile = manly 😉) compared to healthy males.
People with 5ARD might have some, low or no DHT.
This means that external genital field might develop as clearly male but with issue like a micropenis, but it might also develop to look like that of a female, or ambiguous between the two.
Consider a person with 5ARD and male external genitalia.
Now work backwards along their developmental pathway. Mostly typical, except for the mutation that has affected penis growth.
Of course, as a male, they have XY chromosomes and an SRY gene and testes and so on...
What about those argued to be female?
Well, they've got a ton of stuff wrong with them.
Their genetic information is all backwards. How odd.
And their hormones? OK, they are up in male range and that's unusual for a female.
And their anatomy? Apart from their external genitals, it's all atypical, unusual, aberrant.
None of the "female" schema makes any sense in terms of developmental biology.
Why would you anchor the endpoint metric as "sex" and therefore have to label everything else about the system "wrong", rather than acknowledge that the endpoint metric may be the issue here?
Especially when you know precisely why that endpoint metric has emerged.
But further, advocates of 5ARD as "female" must face up to the implications of their claims.
A male with 5ARD has a mutation in SRD5A2, and this gene is required for penis growth. This is simple, and maps perfectly onto well-established developmental processes.
"This is the chain, here is the break, this is the result."
A female with 5ARD however? The genetics world will be shook, I tell you.
Because she can't have a mutation in SRD5A2, can she? After all, the sequence she carries is perfectly concordant with being female.
Further, SRD5A2 must now be considered the master switch of sex determination in humans.
Not only that.
Possession of what was previously thought to be a perfectly healthy XY karyotype is now a chromosome defect, and possession of what was previously thought to be a perfectly healthy SRY sequence is now a mutation.
The special pleading is bonkers.
What they desperately try to argue is female with a ton of disparate features is actually, quite simply, male with a vulva.
Learn some dev bio, would be my suggestion.
Even further, according to their schema, Semenya doesn’t, in fact, have 5ARD.
😂
I’m reminded of this passage from Eve by Cat Bohannon.
Genetically male, but external appearance of girl. “They have two testes where their ovaries would normally be”.
Their ovaries wouldn’t normally be anywhere. Ovaries are not part of their developmental sequence.
The chain break is downstream of them being genetically male and having testes.
And the chain break has resulted in them having a vulva where their penis would normally be.
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Alvares 2025, n=7, fat mass is higher in females as both absolute and relative values. This is logged as "favours cisgender", which is kinda odd because high fat mass isn't usually considered favourable for sports, but whatever.
TIMS: 16.2 kg (24%). F: 19.5 kg (26%).
But Ceolin 2024 is also logged as "favours cisgender" when their values are:
There are little-to-no controls for physical fitness in the individual studies.
Yet they conclude: “transgender women do not exhibit significant differences in upper-body strength, lower-body strength or maximal oxygen consumption relative to cisgender women after 1–3 years of GAHT.”
You haven’t controlled for fitness!!!
Their "performance" data. Can you see one study that really sticks out as an outlier?
The claim that won't die: trans-identifying males are "underpowered" and therefore "disadvantaged" in sport.
"One can imagine a large car with a small engine competing against a small car with a small engine, and that summarizes the playing field." Joanna Harper, Huff Post, 2016.
"You have a bigger body, and you have a smaller engine to move that vehicle around." Yannis Pitsiladis, BBC, 2019.
"giving trans women the disadvantage of having to power larger skeletal frames with reduced strength and aerobic capacity." Jamie Agapoff, 2025.
What happens when a trans-identifying male suppresses testosterone?
They lose a bit of muscle mass.
Their haemoglobin drops to female-typical levels.
The claim that won't die rests on the idea that trans-identifying males retain their skeletal frame and most of their muscle mass, but become unable to move it around a sports fields, rendering them "disadvantaged".
The words "underpowered" and therefore "disadvantaged" are carefully chosen, and typically leave the reader to infer that this means "underpowered" and therefore "disadvantaged" compared to females.
“Most of the studies used to ban transgender women so far are based on the performances of cisgender men, which scientists have argued is not an appropriate comparison.”
That’s me, @TLexercise and others.
“Others” including the ones moaning about not having their say. You know, the say they took for granted. The one they didn’t tell @nrarmour about.
Ever read their archery paper?
“Other studies have compared the performances of transgender women athletes with sedentary cisgender women, also argued as an inappropriate comparison.”
NGL, bit flummoxed here. Any ideas?
If you want inappropriate comparisons, try the Fat Bloke Study. Written by the scientists moaning about being excluded.
Nancy @nrarmour links to it. Fails to care that the reason why trans-identifying males can’t jump as high as the female comparators is that they are 20kg heavier, carrying way more fat, and are far less fit.
For disclosure, I have not been part of this IOC working group.
So the actual paper is fine. I’ve only skimmed, but it looks at gene expression between male and female humans and mice, to answer questions about the evolution of genes associated (or not) with sex.
The authors - who admit in peer review that these graphs exaggerate overlap - suggest in discussion that if one were to look at gene expression in, say, the skin from an individual within the overlap, you could not identify whether that individual was male or female.
It’s a high-level take on a more simple principle in this debate: overlapping height, and is a 5’8” individual male or female?
The authors use the same analogy in the introduction.
Even the ones who said it was “just a few”. They knew the scale.
Even the ones who said “you’re racist” as they fervently argued that black women are fundamentally different to white women. They knew the scale.
Also a poorly kept “secret” is that the majority of this cohort are 5ARD, where males can appear to be female at birth but have male-pattern athletic advantage.