The Food Professor Profile picture
Apr 1 1 tweets 2 min read Read on X
Another ANONYMOUS LETTER from a dairy farmer in Ontario highlighting the growing mess created by supply management. And it’s only going to get worse.

"Sylvain, thank you for calling out a misleading idea that Canadian dairy farmers are losing money. In fact, the dairy industry has made some decisions that are now backfiring.

A few years ago, Canada’s main dairy-producing provinces introduced stricter rules to reduce the amount of skim milk—which is often wasted because there’s too much of it and not enough demand. They wanted more butterfat, which is used in products like butter and cream and is in higher demand.

To meet these new rules, farmers found ways to increase the butterfat content in their milk—like feeding cows palm oil supplements (which led to complaints about “hard butter” at the time). This worked: now milk in Ontario has more butterfat than ever—about 4.5% compared to 3.8–4% before.

But this created a new problem: farmers use up their quotas faster because their quota is based on butterfat, not milk volume. So if butterfat is higher, they can ship fewer litres of milk before hitting their limit. To fix this, the industry gave farmers quota increases and extra production days.

Now milk plants (processors) are getting less milk by volume—even if it’s richer in fat. For example, a truck that used to carry 32,000 litres of 4% milk might now carry less milk with 4.5% fat. That’s causing supply issues for processors who still need a certain amount of milk to make products.

Meanwhile, there’s now a surplus of butter and cheese, because the milk coming in is so fatty. They already have as much butter and cheese in storage in January as they’d normally expect to have by summer—when milk production is higher and demand is lower. They’re running out of storage space.

And they can’t just cut milk production, because processors still need it. So they’re stuck in a catch-22.

On top of it all, the high-fat milk is very expensive. In Ontario, raw milk now costs over $102 per 100 litres—while it’s only about $66 in the U.S. That makes Canadian milk production very profitable, if you’re part of the supply-managed system (aka “the club”)."

In short:

➡️Tried to fix a problem (dumping skim milk)
➡️ Created new problems (less volume, storage issues, higher prices)
➡️Industrial milk in Canada is twice as expensive as in the U.S.
➡️Now they’re stuck between needing more milk and having too much fat.

FYI. All this information is public.Image

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More from @FoodProfessor

Jan 6
THREAD: Why Tombe & Winter's Paper on Carbon Pricing and Food Prices Falls Short.

The paper claims carbon pricing has a minimal impact on Canadian food prices (0.5%)—but here’s why its methodology and conclusions are flawed.

Let's break it down. 👇 #CdnPoli #CarbonTax
1/ Overly Simplistic Modelling

The authors rely on an input-output model that assumes static production methods and cost shares. This ignores how businesses might adapt by adopting more efficient technologies or practices in response to carbon pricing.

Ironically, both Tombe & Winter have argued for considering such adaptive behaviours in other work. Why ignore it here?
2/ Cost Pass-Through Assumptions

The paper assumes that any cost increases from carbon pricing are fully passed on to consumers. This overestimates impacts in competitive sectors (like certain crops) and underestimates them in concentrated sectors (e.g., dairy or meat).

The reality? Cost pass-through rates vary widely, especially in Canada’s complex agri-food supply chains.
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Oct 29, 2023
How many reporters contacted Statistics Canada to inquire about anomalies in the food pricing databases?

Not a single one... Image
At least 17 products have exhibited two different prices between 2017 and 2022, with 14 of them currently reflecting lower prices ranging from 2% to 25%...
Discontinued food price table: …

New food price table: www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.…
www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.…
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Mar 5, 2023
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