ive had several builders ask me for advice on this issue.
choosing a chain because they will do marketing for u is a dumb decision. full stop.
if u fail in 5 years it wont be because the chain u r building on top of didn’t do marketing for u. it’ll be because u r not solving a real problem (most likely), or ur solution is not good enough (2nd most likely).
as such, u should choose a chain because
- the users u want to target r there
- the tech is good enough for ur use case
- u r generally long term bullish on that chain
whether or not that chain will do marketing for u is not even in the top 5-10 most important factors to consider. u will get plenty of organic marketing from users if u manage to build something ppl care about, and figure out the “inorganic” marketing urself along the way.
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that have crossed the chasm in terms strong organic developer ecosystem
Source: I spent probably 4 hours day in day out in the last 2-3 years talking to builders in the various ecosystems. At this point even without any hard data I have a pretty good internal “neural network” of where the strongest organic developer activity happens
The concrete implication of this list that I believe they have a very high chance of thriving beyond one cycle, whereas other ecosystems have a short window of opportunity (ie one cycle maybe) to prove themselves or fade into irrelevance
It’s far easier to be Warren Buffet than Stan Druckenmiller.
Last couple of years, a whole generation of retail investors and entrepreneurs have been conditioned to obsess over macro. The reality is >99% don’t have any edge whatsoever in this game. And as a result it’s counterintuitive to let macro be a factor in their decision making.
This includes some of the most famous macro pundits on Twitter. They have no edge, and they know it. But they do it anyway because they know retail love it.
2/ We start by stating that the long-term goal for any PoPW network should be to become decentralized exchanges connecting service providers and service buyers.
3/ We posit that the following conditions must be met in order for such a network to succeed:
- Standardized and simple contribution
- Trusted oracles
- Minimal monopolistic tendencies
- Agile and conservative token design
When the FTX News came out, it was 1) the SINGLE biggest collapse in history of crypto and 2) it caught EVERYONE off-guard. Yet the market was down only 20%.
That tells you about the market positioning, ie, market was already largely deleveraged and derisked.
In order for another event to cause the market to go down another 20%, that event needs to be 1) meaningfully bigger than FTX and 2) completely unexpected.
Virtually nothing satisfies these 2 conditions. Including Genesis.
Macro is a risk factor I’ve always been worried about. Still fully expect a major selloff next year which may drag crypto down. But that could very well be months+ out given CPI just started to cool down. Not to mention PA seems decorrelated suggesting macro folks had left.
Every time the government attacks us we realize that our system is only as decentralized its most centralized layers, so we need to decentralized the ENTIRE stack.
Today we learned that the stack includes 1) version control and 2) stablecoins.
When I wrote notion.so/alliancedao/Cr… I put "decentralization of all layers of the stack" as the very first section.
This is not a coincidence. This is the single most important value proposition of crypto.