The toughest part of the ETH story is its price - $192 billion dollars
With the same amount of money, you could buy all of Uber ($137b), Robinhood ($31b), Coreweave ($23b) and still have a bill left over
Looking back, to '17, the future was bright and everyone was betting that Ethereum would be the world's super computer in the sky. And using some monkey math, you could get there on ETH being a multi trillion dollar asset in some future states of the world
But fast forward to today, pretty clear that vision is no longer true. There are several blockchains that also serve that purpose (some of which are faster and cheaper... with tradeoffs of course)
And now the story for ETH the asset is that it will be ........the world's settlement layer?!
For the average person, that's just not an exciting vision, certainly not at $192 billion dollars
I hope things change as the ETH story evolves (lots of good stuff ahead), but don't think it's a no-brainer by any stretch at these levels. The flat price action over the years is in many ways justified as the growth prospects, competitive landscape, and vision have all changed
(OO #303)
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1. Rates Lower but Higher
- Market is pricing in some serious cuts in ‘24 with a ~80% chance of rates ending sub 4%
- I’m on the less aggro side and say we end ‘24 north of 4% but sub 5%
- I’m betting inflation is sticky on the way down and the fed will have trouble cutting
2. Crypto Market Cap >$2T
- Trustless financial systems will only become more valuable (esp with lower rates)
- Global conflict, migrant flows, inflationary fiat, and fallible banking systems are all tailwinds
- Crypto market cap sits at $1.7t today and is headed higher