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Rod D. Martin

@RodDMartin

Apr 8, 2025 • 13 tweets • 5 min read • Read on X

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🧵BREAKING: Why America holds ALL the cards in the US-China tariff showdown. A thread on how Trump's playing hardball while Xi's running out of moves...

1/🔥 Let me tell you why Beijing's in DEEP trouble. Trump just hit China with 54% tariffs - and he's threatening to jack it up to 104% if Xi doesn't back down.

But here's the kicker...

2/ The numbers don't lie: China's $300B trade surplus with US is about to become their biggest weakness. A high tariff hits them WAY harder than it hits us.

Basic math the Enemedia seems to have forgotten. They need our market more than we need their stuff.

3/ With most countries, Trump wants to eliminate tariffs: that's what "reciprocal" is about. All current deals are lopsided subsidies. Made sense during the Cold War. Not now.

By making things fair, Trump incentivizes them to cut their tariffs to zero.

rodmartin.org/p/icymi-the-fr…

4/ And that's exactly what's happening. Countries from Argentina to Vietnam are falling all over themselves to cut "zero-zero" tariff deals with Trump. Even the EU is in on it, though their offer is weaker than it needs to be.

rodmartin.org/p/trumps-tarif…

5/ But China's different.

China is our top geopolitical enemy. They openly talk about attacking us, even with nuclear and biological weapons. And they've endlessly used unfair trade practices to drive American businesses under.

Now Trump means to turn the screws.

6/ And Xi CAN'T back down even if he wants to. He's sold himself as the guy who "stands up to America." Caving to Trump now would be POLITICAL SUICIDE.

Talk about being backed into a corner...

7/ BOMBSHELL: 70 countries are already lining up to negotiate free- or close-to-free trade deals with the US.

Meanwhile, China's stuck with its "fight to the end" stance.

But fight with what? Their options are LIMITED. And pride is pushing them places they can't afford to go

8/ And Trump's not just targeting China directly - he's hitting countries they use for transshipping (looking at you, Southeast Asia) with 50% tariffs 🎯

Countries like Vietnam are already seeking a "zero-zero" tariff deal with the U.S. Blocking Chinese cheating will be key.

9/ 🚨 IMPORTANT: China's "nuclear option" - rare earth controls - isn't as powerful as they think. Trump's already working on short-term alternatives. But longer term, that's a lot of what Greenland and Ukraine are about.

Chess not checkers, people.

rodmartin.org/p/greenland-is…

10/ Wall Street's crying about market drops, but Trump's playing the long game: "Sometimes you have to take medicine to fix something."

He's not wrong.

11/ 🎯 BOTTOM LINE: Xi's trapped in a corner of his own making, while Trump's got a full deck of cards to play.

This isn't ending anytime soon, but we know who's holding the stronger hand...

See my "The Illusion of Chinese Strength" for more depth.

rodmartin.org/p/deep-dive-th…

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Rod D. Martin

@RodDMartin

Jun 8

🧵 China’s population collapse is now mathematically irreversible.

There simply aren’t enough women left of childbearing age.

Even if the fertility rate magically returned to replacement level (2.1 children per woman) tomorrow, the country would still lose more than 40% of its population by 2100.

It won't. The real number is 75%. There's nothing like it in history. 🧵

2/ Official estimates say China has only ~190 million women of childbearing age. That number is much higher than reality.

The One Child Policy (1980–2016) and its echoes slashed entire generations. Sex-selective abortions made it worse.

The cohorts now entering prime childbearing years are themselves the children of the one-child policy — already a drastically smaller group.

Each generation compounds the previous deficit.

3/ The numbers are brutal.

Population has fallen for four straight years. In 2025: just 7.92 million births vs. 11.31 million deaths — a record natural decline outside Mao’s famine.

Births dropped another 17% in 2025, hitting the lowest level since 1949. Total fertility rate is now ~0.92 (some estimates as low as 0.84).

Read 7 tweets

Rod D. Martin

@RodDMartin

Jun 6

🧵84 years ago this week, the Battle of Midway changed history.

But what if America had lost — as it very nearly did?

People have no idea how close we came to a Japanese victory that would have cost the Allies both the Pacific and Europe.

It was that close. 🧵

2/ Had Japan won at Midway, they would have destroyed three U.S. carriers while keeping their fleet intact.

Nothing could have stopped them from seizing key South Pacific islands, building airfields, and creating an impregnable defensive perimeter from Samoa to Midway to the Aleutians.

U.S. supply lines to Australia would have been severed. A Pacific offensive delayed until mid-1943 or later.

But that's just the beginning....

3/ An isolated, vulnerable Australia would have had to bring home its own critical troops from North Africa.

Their 7th Division was decisive at El Alamein. Without them, Britain likely would have lost the Suez Canal, the Mediterranean, and India.

Without options, Australia might have even been forced into a neutrality pact with Japan — trading raw materials for safety.

Read 7 tweets

Rod D. Martin

@RodDMartin

Jun 4

🧵The EU is finally waking up: Donald Trump was right about China.

Europe’s industrial base could be obliterated in less than a decade by China’s predatory export machine.

Brussels ignored the warnings. Now they’re facing the consequences. 🧵

2/ China is doubling down on massive over-investment and dumping excess capacity on the world while pursuing autarky at home.

Effect: it's exporting deflation and unemployment as a means to stay in power by destroying your job.

The Rhodium Group warns this “China Shock 2.0” is bigger and more sophisticated than the first one that hollowed out America’s Rust Belt.

3/ Europe is the soft target this time.

China runs a €1 billion DAILY trade surplus with the EU. Without action, the deficit could hit €500 billion by 2027.

As Trump’s tariffs blocked China from flooding the U.S. market, the tsunami of cheap goods shifted to Europe — hitting Germany, France, and beyond with devastating force.

Read 7 tweets

Rod D. Martin

@RodDMartin

Jun 2

🧵Leftist, progressive lawyers are fleeing the Trump administration in large numbers.

According to the NYT, more than 10,000 have left federal agencies since the beginning of 2025, according to a New York Times analysis.

The federal government has lost an incredible 17% of its civilian lawyers in just 15 months. Bwuhahahahahaha!

This isn’t random attrition. It’s a self-revelation. 🧵

2/ The numbers are stark.

The Department of Education lost more than half its lawyers. The Departments of Housing and Urban Development, Labor, Energy, and Agriculture all saw steep declines. DOJ is down 24%.

The Deep State saboteurs are leaving. Trump is getting to replace them. But he's hiring fewer.

Despite agencies hiring about 3,200 lawyers during this period, departures still vastly outpaced recruitment.

3/ There's one major exception.

The Department of Homeland Security increased its legal staff by 21% as the administration ramped up immigration enforcement.

The agencies most focused on Trump’s core priorities — border security and reducing regulatory overreach — are either holding steady or growing.

The ones most aligned with the old administrative state are emptying out.

Read 7 tweets

Rod D. Martin

@RodDMartin

Jun 2

🧵Is Scott Bessent working to crash the yuan?

He helped break the Bank of England in 1992. Now Trump’s Treasury Secretary is using that experience against China — and Beijing should be terrified.

THREAD🧵

2/ In 1992, Scott Bessent was part of the Soros team that broke the pound.

Britain was defending an exchange rate reality no longer supported. The speculators attacked. The Bank of England lost.

Trump watched. He learned the lesson.

Governments don’t lose currencies because traders are clever. They lose them because they defend lies too long.

3/ Bessent recently described China’s economy as the most imbalanced in modern history.

Trapped in deflation. Desperately trying to export its way out. Its own people don’t trust the yuan — they want their money out, but the CCP won’t let them.

Bessent's words aren't normal economic commentary. They're a lesson in the anatomy of a currency regime under terminal pressure.

Read 7 tweets

Rod D. Martin

@RodDMartin

Jun 1

🧵New Orleans just proved failing schools can be fixed at scale.

It became America’s first all-charter school district.

The results are staggering:

• 99th percentile nationally in reading growth
• 98th percentile in math growth
• The only state in America beating pre-pandemic levels in both subjects

This is what real reform looks like. THREAD 🧵

2/ Before Hurricane Katrina, the system was a disaster.

Over 60% of New Orleans public schools were rated failing. Kids attended chaotic, dangerous schools where constant disruptions made real learning almost impossible.

A generation was being failed by design.

Then the storm hit — and everything changed.

3/ New Orleans didn’t tinker. It transformed.

The state took over the worst schools, converted the entire district to charters, eliminated neighborhood attendance zones, and gave families real school choice.

Thousands of underperforming teachers and staff were fired. Corruption and low standards were confronted directly.

It was radical. It worked.

Read 7 tweets

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