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Rod D. Martin Profile picture
@RodDMartin
Apr 8, 2025 • 13 tweets • 5 min read • Read on X
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🧵BREAKING: Why America holds ALL the cards in the US-China tariff showdown. A thread on how Trump's playing hardball while Xi's running out of moves... Image
1/🔥 Let me tell you why Beijing's in DEEP trouble. Trump just hit China with 54% tariffs - and he's threatening to jack it up to 104% if Xi doesn't back down.

But here's the kicker... Image
2/ The numbers don't lie: China's $300B trade surplus with US is about to become their biggest weakness. A high tariff hits them WAY harder than it hits us.

Basic math the Enemedia seems to have forgotten. They need our market more than we need their stuff. Image
3/ With most countries, Trump wants to eliminate tariffs: that's what "reciprocal" is about. All current deals are lopsided subsidies. Made sense during the Cold War. Not now.

By making things fair, Trump incentivizes them to cut their tariffs to zero.

rodmartin.org/p/icymi-the-fr…
4/ And that's exactly what's happening. Countries from Argentina to Vietnam are falling all over themselves to cut "zero-zero" tariff deals with Trump. Even the EU is in on it, though their offer is weaker than it needs to be.

rodmartin.org/p/trumps-tarif…
5/ But China's different.

China is our top geopolitical enemy. They openly talk about attacking us, even with nuclear and biological weapons. And they've endlessly used unfair trade practices to drive American businesses under.

Now Trump means to turn the screws. Image
6/ And Xi CAN'T back down even if he wants to. He's sold himself as the guy who "stands up to America." Caving to Trump now would be POLITICAL SUICIDE.

Talk about being backed into a corner... Image
7/ BOMBSHELL: 70 countries are already lining up to negotiate free- or close-to-free trade deals with the US.

Meanwhile, China's stuck with its "fight to the end" stance.

But fight with what? Their options are LIMITED. And pride is pushing them places they can't afford to go Image
8/ And Trump's not just targeting China directly - he's hitting countries they use for transshipping (looking at you, Southeast Asia) with 50% tariffs 🎯

Countries like Vietnam are already seeking a "zero-zero" tariff deal with the U.S. Blocking Chinese cheating will be key. Image
9/ 🚨 IMPORTANT: China's "nuclear option" - rare earth controls - isn't as powerful as they think. Trump's already working on short-term alternatives. But longer term, that's a lot of what Greenland and Ukraine are about.

Chess not checkers, people.

rodmartin.org/p/greenland-is…
10/ Wall Street's crying about market drops, but Trump's playing the long game: "Sometimes you have to take medicine to fix something."

He's not wrong. Image
11/ 🎯 BOTTOM LINE: Xi's trapped in a corner of his own making, while Trump's got a full deck of cards to play.

This isn't ending anytime soon, but we know who's holding the stronger hand...

See my "The Illusion of Chinese Strength" for more depth.

rodmartin.org/p/deep-dive-th…
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More from @RodDMartin

Rod D. Martin Profile picture
May 15
🧵 Xi Jinping just invoked the Thucydides Trap with Trump.

Most assume this is a threat. But what if Xi is signaling something else — that he recognizes China is now in a weakened position against the United States and thus needs to avoid a war?

The historical record and current realities both suggest he has reason to worry.

Thread 🧵Image
2/ So what is "Thucydides Trap"?

Graham Allison documented 16 cases of rising powers challenging established ones.

Four ended in peace. But in the twelve that led to war, the established power defeated the rising power 7-5.

If Xi knows this history, he understands the odds are stacked against China — especially right now.Image
3/ China faces severe structural weaknesses.

Its economy depends heavily on exports to the U.S. market, and imported energy through straits it can't control.

Its demographic collapse is roughly a decade from becoming catastrophic.

Constant leadership purges reveal a brittle regime.

These are not the conditions of a confident rising power.Image
Read 7 tweets
Rod D. Martin Profile picture
May 15
🧵Europe’s Green Deal is unraveling.

Centrally planned climate targets have delivered higher energy costs, industrial decline, and political revolt instead of the promised green utopia.

While Europe stagnates under mandates, America shows what market-driven progress looks like.

Thread 🧵Image
2/ Electricity in Europe now costs two to three times more than in the U.S. or China.

Taxes make up nearly a quarter of the bill. Binding net-zero rules, nuclear phase-outs, and unreliable renewables have created volatility and strangled industry.

Energy can be 30% of production costs. The result: deindustrialization.Image
3/ The auto sector reveals the damage.

It represents 7% of EU GDP and 14 million jobs. The 2035 combustion engine ban is forcing a rushed EV shift.

86,000 jobs lost since 2020. Up to 350,000 more at risk. Mercedes CEO warned they’re driving “full speed into a wall.” Image
Read 7 tweets
Rod D. Martin Profile picture
May 15
🧵Cuba is America’s Taiwan.

CIA Director Ratcliffe flew to Havana yesterday and laid out Trump’s terms: $100M in immediate aid, embargo relief, and massive U.S. investment — but only if Cuba accepts real democratic reforms and boots China, Russia, and Iran off the island.

While the world watches Iran, this is happening 90 miles from Florida. 🧵Image
2/ Trump’s Western Hemisphere doctrine is already working.

Gulf of America. China squeezed in Panama. Maduro removed from Venezuela with zero American casualties.

Cuba is the last major hostile foothold on America’s doorstep — perfectly positioned to threaten the Gulf and Panama Canal approaches.

That changes now.Image
3/ The 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis was the closest the world has come to nuclear war.

Cuba then became a Soviet proxy exporting revolution across Latin America.

Today the regime is a failed, frozen asset. The economy has collapsed, protests continue, and the old guard is dying off.

70 years of unfinished business ends here.Image
Read 7 tweets
Rod D. Martin Profile picture
May 14
🧵The Democrats may not survive the Callais ruling.

The Supreme Court’s decision to curb race-based congressional districts strikes at the structural foundation of their House power.

I've been counting 21 such districts. But by the American Spectator's count, 122 of Democrats' 212 seats sit in majority-minority districts engineered along racial lines.

This is not a small correction. It is an existential threat to their current model.Image
2/ Those 122 districts are more than half of Democrats' entire caucus.

Every majority-Black district is represented by a Democrat. Most Hispanic-majority districts too.

Their coalition was built on racial mapmaking, not organic support. Image
Image
3/ They achieved this by twisting Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act through relentless litigation before leftist judges.

Justice Alito made the correction plain: Section 2 was designed to enforce the Constitution — not collide with it by authorizing racial discrimination. Image
Read 7 tweets
Rod D. Martin Profile picture
May 14
🧵222 years ago today, America launched one of its boldest geopolitical moves.

On May 14, 1804, Lewis and Clark left St. Louis into the complete unknown.

This was not adventure for its own sake. It was strategy.

Few understand how close it came to deciding whether the United States would become a continental power — or stay a vulnerable coastal republic. 🇺🇸🗺️

🧵👇Image
2/ America had just 5.5 million people.

The Louisiana Purchase had doubled our size overnight, but we knew almost nothing about it. No maps. No roads. No forts.

European rivals watched from every direction.

An expedition to Mars today would be less daunting.

Jefferson sent them anyway.Image
3/ Geography decided everything.

The Mississippi River system is North America’s ultimate advantage — unmatched internal highways that connect fertile heartland to the sea at a fraction of the cost of anywhere else on Earth.

Control the Mississippi, and you control the continent.

New Orleans was the jugular.Image
Read 7 tweets
Rod D. Martin Profile picture
May 14
🧵Trump has unlocked Venezuela’s massive oil reserves.

After U.S. forces removed Maduro in January, Exxon, Chevron, Shell and other majors are rushing into Caracas. The country with the world’s largest proved reserves is suddenly open again.

Socialism wrecked it. American strength is reopening it.
🧵Image
2/ Before Chávez and Maduro, Venezuela produced 3.5 million barrels per day.

Socialist policies, asset seizures, and incompetence crashed output to as low as 500,000 bpd. The nation with the most oil on Earth became a textbook case of resource mismanagement and poverty. Image
3/ The reversal is happening fast.

Trump’s pressure produced a new hydrocarbon law giving companies more operational control, cutting royalties, and improving dispute resolution.

Oil executives who called Venezuela “uninvestable” weeks ago are now sending teams and signing deals.Image
Read 7 tweets

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