(1) Wallet-centric future: users interface with numerous apps with the same wallet. In this UX, wallets are a feature not a bug. The tradeoff however is that wallets dilute the user relationship with applications.
(2) App-centric future: users interface directly with independent apps with embedded wallets abstracted in the background. This UX implies that wallets are a bug and apps are the principal feature. While this allows apps to own the end user directly, it fragments user funds across numerous wallets on different apps.
Ultimately, I think both futures will co-exist in harmony –– they will just serve different applications.
For the handful of truly differentiated consumer apps (e.g. Polymarket), embedded wallets make sense. A large share of Polymarket users probably are not using numerous other crypto apps. In this context, embedded wallets are a thoughtful design decision catered to a more normie user base.
However, for most DeFi apps dominated by power users (eg DEXs, perps, lend/borrow), I expect most users prefer a single wallet. With this user base especially, crypto has primarily found PMF by offering a novel means of making money. To these users, DeFi apps are simply different tools to service this same goal. Adding numerous fragmented wallets will only add friction. I don't want to bridge my memecoin earnings from my Raydium embedded wallet to my Kamino embedded wallet to farm an airdrop.
In this context embedded wallets are a "solution" that implicitly cause a problem.
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Prediction #1: Front-ends increasingly capture value
As the MEV supply chain matures, value gets captured by whoever owns exclusive order-flow.
The reason is simple. Anyone downstream of order-flow origination — DEXs, searchers, builders, validators etc. — will experience more competition for the same order-flow.
Conversely, the originator of that order-flow (i.e., front-ends) retains an inherent monopoly within the MEV supply chain.
This suggests that the only stakeholder that can increase their take rate without losing meaningful market share is front-ends — specifically those that own "fee-insensitive" order-flow (e.g. wallets).
Emerging primitives such as conditional liquidity (@DFlowProtocol) should accelerate this trend as well.
Prediction #2: DePIN’s total market cap grows 5x in 2025
Market leaders like @Helium and @Hivemapper begin to see network effects approach escape velocity.
@dawninternet emerges as DePIN’s breakout app of the year by harnessing both tangible technological improvements and crypto-economic incentives.