This is the biggest story of our lifetime.
It’s the plan, quietly unfolding, to break China, rebuild the American middle class, and reshape the world economy for the next 50 years.
And almost nobody understands it.
A thread 🧵 (@WillCain's Full Monologue at the bottom).
It’s the plan, quietly unfolding, to break China, rebuild the American middle class, and reshape the world economy for the next 50 years.
And almost nobody understands it.
A thread 🧵 (@WillCain's Full Monologue at the bottom).
“This isn’t chaos. This is strategic.”
Will Cain opens with a warning:
“We’re all trying to get our arms around the biggest story, perhaps, of our lifetime… It redefines the last 30 years, and sets the next 50.”
Welcome to the global trade war. And America’s big bet.
Will Cain opens with a warning:
“We’re all trying to get our arms around the biggest story, perhaps, of our lifetime… It redefines the last 30 years, and sets the next 50.”
Welcome to the global trade war. And America’s big bet.
Here’s what happened:
Last night, Trump slapped 104% tariffs on Chinese goods.
This morning, China hit back—84% tariffs on U.S. companies.
The EU was threatening their own.
Markets? Total panic.
Bond yields spiked. Stocks spiraled.
No one could explain it, except one man
Last night, Trump slapped 104% tariffs on Chinese goods.
This morning, China hit back—84% tariffs on U.S. companies.
The EU was threatening their own.
Markets? Total panic.
Bond yields spiked. Stocks spiraled.
No one could explain it, except one man
That man is Scott Bessent, Trump’s Treasury Secretary.
“He’s the clearest voice I’ve ever heard,” Will says.
“He lays out the plan better than anyone else I’ve seen.”
Bessent gave longform interviews this weekend.
Here’s what he revealed. 👇
“He’s the clearest voice I’ve ever heard,” Will says.
“He lays out the plan better than anyone else I’ve seen.”
Bessent gave longform interviews this weekend.
Here’s what he revealed. 👇
First: the diagnosis.
“$36 trillion in debt. A middle class drowning in credit cards. Hollowed-out towns. Brain drain. Fentanyl. Ghost factories.”
Will:
“This is not a sustainable model. At minimum, it leads to volatility. At maximum: civil war.”
“$36 trillion in debt. A middle class drowning in credit cards. Hollowed-out towns. Brain drain. Fentanyl. Ghost factories.”
Will:
“This is not a sustainable model. At minimum, it leads to volatility. At maximum: civil war.”
The current system is a casino.
“Almost everyone I know in markets, when they take truth serum, will tell you: it’s all fugazi. Fake.”
PE ratios in the 30s and 50s. No correlation to reality.
Will: “The economy needs to right size. That may look like a collapse.”
“Almost everyone I know in markets, when they take truth serum, will tell you: it’s all fugazi. Fake.”
PE ratios in the 30s and 50s. No correlation to reality.
Will: “The economy needs to right size. That may look like a collapse.”
And here’s the bold plan:
“We put tariffs across the board to scare the hell out of everyone.”
“And now, 70 countries are running to the table trying to get deals.”
Deals that are tailored. Case by case. Country by country.
On America’s terms.
“We put tariffs across the board to scare the hell out of everyone.”
“And now, 70 countries are running to the table trying to get deals.”
Deals that are tailored. Case by case. Country by country.
On America’s terms.
Trump has since paused those tariffs for countries that have agreed to come to the table.
But not China.
“They are in recession. Possibly depression.”
“104% tariffs crush China. They are the surplus country. They need us.”
Bessent:
“They have the most imbalanced economy in the history of the modern world… This escalation is a loser for them.”
But not China.
“They are in recession. Possibly depression.”
“104% tariffs crush China. They are the surplus country. They need us.”
Bessent:
“They have the most imbalanced economy in the history of the modern world… This escalation is a loser for them.”
Trump’s approach? Pure negotiation psychology.
Will:
“Like Littlefinger in Game of Thrones, Trump believes chaos is a ladder.”
“He doesn’t define a win, so he can proclaim one, regardless of the outcome.”
Keep them guessing. Force better deals.
Will:
“Like Littlefinger in Game of Thrones, Trump believes chaos is a ladder.”
“He doesn’t define a win, so he can proclaim one, regardless of the outcome.”
Keep them guessing. Force better deals.
And what happens if China doesn’t fold?
“Trade wars can lead to depressions. They’ve also led to kinetic war.”
Will recalls:
“The U.S. embargoed oil to Japan in the 1930s… boxed them in… and they bombed Pearl Harbor.”
What happens if we box in China?
“Trade wars can lead to depressions. They’ve also led to kinetic war.”
Will recalls:
“The U.S. embargoed oil to Japan in the 1930s… boxed them in… and they bombed Pearl Harbor.”
What happens if we box in China?
This isn’t just about economics. It’s a reordering of the world.
“We’re at the poker table. And we’re shoving all our chips into the middle.”
The bet:
America regains leverage.
The middle class gets rebuilt.
And the U.S. defines the next world order.
“We’re at the poker table. And we’re shoving all our chips into the middle.”
The bet:
America regains leverage.
The middle class gets rebuilt.
And the U.S. defines the next world order.
Can it work?
“Where we were headed wasn’t going to work. That I know.”
Will again:
“I don’t want the soul of America decayed by a social safety net.”
“I want dignity. Purpose. Jobs.”
“And that means making things again.”
“Where we were headed wasn’t going to work. That I know.”
Will again:
“I don’t want the soul of America decayed by a social safety net.”
“I want dignity. Purpose. Jobs.”
“And that means making things again.”
The wild card? Weak Republicans.
“Seven GOP senators, led by Rand Paul, are trying to pull the rug out.”
“That’s panic. The same kind we’re seeing in the markets.”
Will:
“Don’t let ad hoc fear kill a plan with the guts to win.”
“Seven GOP senators, led by Rand Paul, are trying to pull the rug out.”
“That’s panic. The same kind we’re seeing in the markets.”
Will:
“Don’t let ad hoc fear kill a plan with the guts to win.”
Final question:
“Will the plan work? I don’t know.”
“But is there a plan? Yes.”
And maybe, for the first time in 50 years, America is betting on itself.
“Will the plan work? I don’t know.”
“But is there a plan? Yes.”
And maybe, for the first time in 50 years, America is betting on itself.
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