Thread by @futurenomics

I'm always amused when people are shocked by people doing exactly what they said they’d do. Everything that has happened over the past week was publicly announced months ago.

Stephen Miran, widely viewed as the architect of Trump's trade policy, published a paper "A User’s Guide to Restructuring the Global Trading System" in November of 2024, laying out everything that has happened (as well as many things that are yet to come).

The paper isn’t some vague philosophical rant: it’s a detailed policy playbook.

Almost all trade is denominated, either directly or indirectly, in dollars. This leads to most countries, as their economies grow, becoming net dollar importers. This leads to trade deficits or dollar appreciation against their local currencies, making American exports less competitive.

To Miran, this poses an existential threat to America, as dollar appreciation can lead to accelerating financialization of the American economy. Eventually, American's hollowed out economy undermines the dollars status as a reserve currency, leading to the collapse of the dollar system.

The paper’s most important strategic insight: Being the global reserve currency has come at a deep, long-term cost:

“As global GDP grows, it becomes increasingly burdensome for the United States to finance the provision of reserve assets and the defense umbrella, as the manufacturing and tradeable sectors bear the brunt of the costs.”

In short: the U.S. has been subsidizing global growth, at the expense of its own industrial base.

Miran views China and the Chinese mercantalist trade policy as an existential threat.

"China has chosen to double down on its mercantilist, export-led model to secure marginal income, much to the rest of the world’s consternation."

Miran also recognizes a key failure of previous China tariffs: they were too narrow.

“To avoid the tariffs, many Chinese companies began exporting goods or components to third countries, engaging in some minor processing, and then re-exporting to the United States.”

In other words, Chinese exports to the United States were simply rerouted. Universal tariffs aim to close that loophole by forcing trading partners to choose between China and America.

So why start with across-the-board tariffs? Because they reverse the dynamic. Instead of asking for better trade terms, the U.S. grants tariff relief to countries that meet its conditions.

“Such a tool can be used to pressure other nations to join our tariffs against China… If other nations… accept the higher U.S. tariff… at least they’re paying revenue to Treasury, and limiting the security obligations of the United States.”

It’s a negotiation starting point.

The end goal here is a tiered system:

Countries are grouped by:
-Currency behavior
-IP protection
-Market openness
-Security alignment with the U.S.

Each tier gets different tariffs. Multilateralism is out. Conditional bilateralism is in.

And that’s not just a financial imbalance. It’s a geopolitical vulnerability.

“Countries that want to be inside the defense umbrella must also be inside the fair trade umbrella.”

This is about control of leverage. Market access becomes a tool of foreign policy.

This is about building a new trade architecture that reflects American interests rather than global norms.

Miran’s plan isn't nostalgia for 2018. It’s not about one country, one factory, or one industry. It’s a reconstruction of global trade with the U.S. market as the key prize, and tariff relief as the price of entry.

It's unclear if it will work, or even if its a good idea but at the very least there is a plan. The only real surprise is that people are surprised.

Miran and others have said clearly what they would do. Now they’re doing it.

Link to the paper hudsonbaycapital.com/documents/FG/h…