New monthly visa stats came out today and here are our key takeaways
The tighter immigration rules under the previous government are having an impact: visa applications have dropped sharply, especially from health & care workers
Most international students cannot bring dependants anymore, and study visa applications from main applicants are down too – 11% drop in 2024–25 vs the year before. The decline in the number of students could have serious financial implications for some UK universities.
Even with salary thresholds rising from £26,200 to £38,700, work visa applications outside the health and care sectors haven’t declined as much as expected. It appears many employers are simply choosing to pay more.
After an initial drop due to the new income threshold, family visa applications are rising again. According to the Home Office, this increase is not driven by partner visas, but by a rise in refugee family reunion visas (resulting from recent increases in asylum grants)
Overall, even with the recent drop, visa applications from non-EU citizens remain well above pre-Brexit levels. This is because high levels of immigration in the past continue to have effects today – for example, a rise in asylum is then led by a rise in family reunion
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Supreme Court found Rwanda may fail to respect the agreement and send people back to countries where they could be at risk.
It leaves open the door that the deal could become legal in the future, if Rwanda improves its system—though that could be quite a long-term task.
Background: govt introduced Rwanda policy to deter ppl from crossing the channel in small boats to claim asylum
It was always v uncertain how much deterrent effect the policy would have. It may have had an effect, but there was always a risk that effect would have been small
More than a year after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the UK’s introduction of special visas for people fleeing the war, our updated briefing examines Ukrainian migration to the UK. 🧵migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/brie…
As of 1 August 2023, 305k people had applied for Ukraine visas, with 237k issued visas, and 183k arrivals: gov.uk/government/pub…
Majority of people issued visas under Homes for Ukraine rather than the Ukraine Family scheme (teal bars):
Around 46,000 people were detected crossing the English Channel in small boats in 2022.
First half of 2023 detected crossings were about 11,500 – a fall of 10% compared same period in 2022, but it's not possible to know whether the fall will be sustained, or the impact of policy.
Ninety two percent of people arriving in small boat from 2018 to March 2023 claimed asylum; of the small share who had received a decision by March 2023, 86% received a grant of protection.
2/ To give credit to analysts at Home Office, doing a full IA of a “novel and untested scheme” like this is effectively impossible. It’s actually an interesting read and parts of it are meticulously researched. But there are some massive caveats.
First, two main omissions
3/ The IA looks at cost per person sent to 3rd country (eg Rwanda) and per person deterred from coming to UK
It makes no assumptions about how many can/will be removed & thus misses a crucial 3rd group: pp; not deterred OR removed but detained/supported in UK indefinitely.
The UK’s large asylum backlog has been attracting attention recently, and we’ve produced a piece summarising what we know about the backlog, its causes, and its consequences. 1/n migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/brie…
On 30 September 2022, there were 117k asylum apps awaiting initial decision (143k people, incl any family members). Most waiting longer than 6 months for a decision.
As of 30 Sep 2022, this was not the biggest asylum backlog on record. The previous high was 125,000 apps at end of 1999. This may change tomorrow with further stats due out, however.
2/ EU net migration *has* declined sharply in recent years. All else equal, this would have meant lower UK immigration overall. But all else was not equal. Various factors have combined to create unusually high numbers of visas granted to non-EU citizens. What has driven this?
3/ There's no single explanation. Increases have taken place across three main categories: work, study and "other" which includes the Ukraine schemes and Hong Kong BNOs