🧵 END OF THE CHINESE DREAM: The Chinese Economic Miracle is DEAD - and it's worse than we thought.
Here's what's happening, and why this matters to YOU...
Here's what's happening, and why this matters to YOU...
2/ 🚨 Lots of people are still rah-rahing China like its numbers will go up forever. Some realize it's looking more like 90s Japan.
But the reality is WAY darker.
But the reality is WAY darker.
3/ Xi Jinping keeps pushing the "East is Rising" narrative, but the numbers tell a different story. China's demographic COLLAPSE is happening RIGHT NOW. Their workforce is literally disappearing.
China's population pyramid is turning into a population TOMBSTONE.
China's population pyramid is turning into a population TOMBSTONE.
4/ SHOCKING NUMBERS: China's fertility rate is just 1.0, looking to stabilize at 0.8 - that's less than HALF of the 2.1 needed just to MAINTAIN population.
Japan's worst was 1.26, and brought on the "Lost Decades". This isn't just bad - it's CATASTROPHIC.
Japan's worst was 1.26, and brought on the "Lost Decades". This isn't just bad - it's CATASTROPHIC.
5/ What's really terrible? There are about to be too few working age people to provide for the elderly.
In the terminology of Development Economics, "they're getting old before they get rich".
And nothing seems to be turning it around.
In the terminology of Development Economics, "they're getting old before they get rich".
And nothing seems to be turning it around.
6/ 🔥 Unless something HUGE changes, by 2100, China will have lost 75% of its population. T
hink about that. 3/4 of their consumers, workers, and taxpayers - GONE.
hink about that. 3/4 of their consumers, workers, and taxpayers - GONE.
7/ China looks rich now, but a LOT of it isn't even close. 300 million rural pensioners get just $32/MONTH.
That's not a typo. It's about to get worse.
That's not a typo. It's about to get worse.
8/ The cities are in trouble too. China's real estate bubble makes Japan's look like child's play.
$18 TRILLION in household wealth - POOF - gone since 2021. And that's where most Chinese put their retirement savings!
And it's getting worse...
$18 TRILLION in household wealth - POOF - gone since 2021. And that's where most Chinese put their retirement savings!
And it's getting worse...
9/ China runs on exports. But the world is decoupling from them. Meanwhile, its domestic consumption rate is less than half of the world average: China's population can't absorb what it's not shipping us.
And we buy 39% of everything they manufacture.
rodmartin.org/p/china-cant-w…
And we buy 39% of everything they manufacture.
rodmartin.org/p/china-cant-w…
10/ They're betting big on automation & AI to save them. But here's the brutal truth: as much good as that will do them (and it's a lot), robots and AI chatbots don't buy houses or cars.
You actually need people.
You actually need people.
11/ The "Chinese Century" lasted about as long as a TikTok video. Their economic future isn't just concerning - it's DIRE.
Even if they boost household income to global standards (they won't), it's too late. The demographic damage is ALREADY DONE.
rodmartin.org/p/the-end-of-t…
Even if they boost household income to global standards (they won't), it's too late. The demographic damage is ALREADY DONE.
rodmartin.org/p/the-end-of-t…
12/ 🎯 BOTTOM LINE: Far from dominating the world, China's economy is heading for a historic collapse.
And this time, there's no way out.
And this time, there's no way out.
If you appreciated this content, please like and share, and also sign up for your FREE or PREMIUM subscription to my newsletter at .RodMartin.org
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
