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Shaun Newman Podcast

May 2, 2025 • 15 tweets • 7 min read • Read on X

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Not sure Mark Carney saw this one coming...

The US just cut a massive minerals deal with Ukraine.

Canada, once America’s top resource partner, is watching from the sidelines.

Here’s why this deal is a direct blow to Mark Carney’s government 👇:

For decades, Canada supplied the US with critical minerals.

We’re not talking small change:

• Over 50% of Canada’s mineral exports go to the US
• Minerals make up about 5% of Canada’s GDP
• Nickel, potash, uranium exports are up to 80% US-dependent

Then came the Canada-Trump standoff.

Trump’s tariffs on Canadian minerals blindsided Ottawa.
Instead of working toward a new deal, Carney has dug in and refused to concede.

And now? The US is quietly replacing Canada in its supply chain.

The US-Ukraine Reconstruction Investment Fund now gives the US market access to:

• lithium
• nickel
• cobalt
• titanium
• rare earths
• uranium

These are the same resources that anchor Canada’s mineral economy.

Here’s the punchline:

The US isn’t just punishing Canada, it is diversifying at record speed.

Deals with Ukraine, Australia, Chile, and domestic producers are cutting Canada out.

Meanwhile, Canada has no fallback.

Mark Carney has talked about diversifying Canada’s customer base.

But let’s be blunt...

The US is moving faster to diversify its suppliers than Canada is to diversify its buyers.

That mismatch is dangerous.

When half your exports in a sector go to one buyer, that buyer holds the power.

Lose that buyer and you don’t just lose income.

You lose pricing power, market influence, and national leverage.

Carney can stand his ground with Trump all he wants.

But without building new export markets, his chest-puffed ego battle means little.

It’s not a strategy. It is self-sabotage.

And Canada's economy is going to be the one paying the price.

While Carney talks, competitors are hustling.

• Australia is locking in deals with Korea and Japan
• Chile is expanding lithium exports
• The US is reshoring mining

He's still clinging to the hope that Trump will change course while pretending he knows what he's doing.

Carney has framed the US dispute as a temporary rift.

But the reality is...

Tariffs will bite deeper.
Canada’s market share is shrinking.
Our country is drifting from price-setter to price-taker.

This is not just about minerals. It is about national strategy.

The US is building a global network of suppliers.

To Washington D.C., Canada is starting to look less like a partner and more like just another vendor.

Bottom line:

The US-Ukraine deal is a wake-up call.

If Carney does not break the deadlock and open new markets, Canada risks going from indispensable to irrelevant.

The time to pivot is right now.

https://twitter.com/1127269174684708864/status/1918363310959018039

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Video/Image Credits:
• What a new U.S minerals deal means for Ukraine’s survival – youtube.com/watch?v=6ld6FK…
• How Americans Will Pay For Trump's Canadian Tariffs – youtube.com/watch?v=sXTVwt…
• Why Canada's critical minerals industry is lacking investment – youtube.com/watch?v=IuJ5Jn…
• Chile plans to nationalise lithium industry – youtube.com/watch?v=SSVZfN…
• Trump fans praise tariffs, slam Canada at Michigan MAGA rally – youtube.com/watch?v=SrpR6G…
• US and Ukraine Sign a Rare Earth Minerals Deal. What's Next? – youtube.com/watch?v=0zhZ0G…
• US Ready to Sign Ukraine Minerals Deal Now: Bessent – youtube.com/watch?v=lgoeti…

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