Assortative mating and preferences towards intelligence -- a short criticism of a common argument
There's an argument that regularly pops up here. It goes something like:
A: "Men don't care about intelligence."
B: "The data says otherwise, intelligent men marry intelligent women."
Here I won't argue that B is wrong per se, but more that the argument or evidence provided as counter-argument isn't good.
First, we should recognize that there are two parties in a marriage. In theory, this assortative mating could be entirely driven by smart women's preferences to marry educated and smart men. (Not saying this is the case, but the symmetry of the correlation means that assortative mating doesn't tell us *whose* preference is operating)
Second -- and my more serious criticism -- is that assortative mating can arise for reasons other than preferences. In particular, society is stratified in terms of intelligence, and it might just arise because smart people live and partake in certain environments.
Smart people tend to mingle with other smart people. They meet, and sometimes form relationships. That could explain why smart people marry other smart people, without any need for any overt preference for intelligence.
I want to make this point clear: even if smart people had zero preference towards intelligence, you'd expect substantial assortative mating in terms of education/intelligence simply because of how people indirectly sort themselves throughout society.
This is not merely a "what-if" philosophical objection. There is a compelling Norwegian study which shows that the majority of the educational assortative mating can be explained by the fact that people tend to meet in specific institutions they attend (Kirkebøen, Leuven & Mogstad, 2021).
My point was not to disprove that (intelligent) men prefer intelligent women. It's more a call for people to think about the issues more carefully and present more compelling evidence either way.
In a new post, I refute the idea that calculus was invented in India and/or that European calculus was built upon ideas of calculus transmitted from India to Europe.
I then provide the true account of how the development of calculus began.
The claim that India (or anywhere else before the 17th century) had invented calculus is based on a fundamental misunderstanding of what "calculus" is.
Calculus is a systematic theory of integration and differentiation, one that didn't exist before the 17th century.
A second claim often forwarded is that European calculus was inspired by infinitesimal ideas developed in India, which were supposedly transmitted by Jesuit missionaries.
There is no historical evidence for this whatsoever, and I refute many of the common arguments.
In a new post, I contest the common claim that precolonial India was a rich society.
With qualitative and quantitative evidence, we see that the living standards of Indian commoners were poor. I also trace the origins of the divergence between the West and India.
The typical claim is that India once accounted for 25% of the global GDP, which reduced to just 4% after colonialism.
But this tells us nothing about their living conditions before we have accounted for the respective population counts. (These old estimates are also dubious)
Many European traveler accounts give us a picture of precolonial Indian living conditions.
The Dutch merchant Francisco Pelsaert, for instance, writes about the “miserable poverty” experienced by Indian common people.
That's what I argue in a recent piece. Consider, for example, Nigeria's homicide rate.
An organization that monitors homicides from news reports find >3x homicides than official counts, and household surveys suggest >10x.
There are two major sources that compile national homicide rates across the world, including African countries: WHO and UNODC.
WHO, recognizing the unreliability of African homicide statistics, do not even use the official homicide counts and try to estimate it by other means.
How do they estimate it? They use a socio-demographic regression model. They basically say “the country is this poor, this unequal, has this many young males, etc, therefore the homicide is probably about such-and-such.”
But we have no idea how accurate such predictions are.
In this piece, I critically examine the quality and availability of data in Africa. I argue that much African data is highly unreliable.
In particular, I look at economic data, criminal justice data, and population data.
I'm by no means the first to sound alarm about African data quality. It has previously been called "Africa's statistical tragedy". Similarly, a well-known book "Poor Numbers" critically examines Africa's developmental statistics.
There's a lack of proper birth registration, death registration, lack of recent censuses, and much more.
This chart illustrates a composite measure of statistical capacity across the world. As is evident, Africa is the region with the lowest average score.
It is not unusual to see claims that intelligent or otherwise able people have fewer children. But is this universal? In the Nordic countries, the opposite seems to the case.
Consider first this data of IQ-fertility for Swedish men born between 1951–1967.
The data clearly shows that there is a positive relationship between IQ and fertility. To be fair, this is mostly explained by reduced fertility below average IQ. (Note also that "not tested" have very low fertility, but people who weren't tested tend to have very low IQ).
Basically the same is shown for Norway here (Stanine score is just the IQ scores being distributed into bins).
In my most recent piece, I evaluate whether immigrants tend to assimilate with respect to various social outcomes.
One important outcome is crime. Consider for example the following chart. In Denmark, second-generation immigrants are no less criminal than first-generation.
I then went one step further and considered whether differences between different immigrant groups converge. Again, Denmark offers excellent data by nation-of-origin.
There is a remarkable persistence in crime rates between first- and second generation (correlation = 0.9).
It's not just in Denmark. Though Sweden does not report them at the national level, we see the same strong persistence for region-of-origin.