Evo Morales could be arrested tonight or tomorrow in Bolivia.
He’s heading to La Paz to register his candidacy, joined by thousands of indigenous supporters in a convoy trying to stop police from executing his arrest warrant. They've managed to push back the police for now.
“Evo, you are not alone,” chant his supporters surrounding the convoy.
This is his final battle—either he’s arrested now, or mass support propels him onto the ballot. The Arce government and right-wing opposition are trying to block his candidacy for this year's elections.
Police along the highway are searching every car in an attempt to find Evo. The internal faction fight within the MAS has ended with the government using the state and judicial system to block him in whatever way they can.
I'm told that the government is internally divided right now about whether to repress this march or to allow it to pass without incident so as not to create martyrs for Evo's faction. Either way, there is an arrest warrant for Evo and they will look weak if they can't enforce it.
23 protesters from the convoy arrested so far, police still don't know where Evo himself is. Tomorrow morning looking like it could be a battle.
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(Thread): Bolivia’s pro-US candidates are in an even worse position than I previously thought. Economic collapse + stubborn far-right extremism in Eastern regions = Massive electoral defeat. Even with fraud, they're too weak now for the chaos that'd cause.
MAS can win in the first round with just 40% because Añez & Camacho’s base in Beni & Santa Cruz, respectively, is large enough to destroy the tactical vote that neoliberal centrist Carlos Mesa won there in 2019. (right pic is 2019 result by department)
This means MAS is 3% away from a 1st round victory, in a poll done by phone, which means that rural & working-class voters (70-80% of whom are MAS) are even more underrepresented compared to the pre-pandemic polls carried out in person. Arce will get a much higher % on the day.
Thread: @jacobinmag & now @ProgIntl have published my work without permission. I told Jacobin not to republish my work, months ago, and have warned Andronico personally about the aggressively anti-Evo pieces they normally publish
In May, Jacobin went as far as publishing my interview with Luis Arce for @KawsachunCoca, without my knowledge, as if it was their own. Thereby erasing our work as a struggling outlet reporting in the face of constant threats from the state. They eventually agreed to remove it.
Progressive International has reached out to me numerous times, inviting me to join. I've ignored them because it seems like the same crowd of people. Though, I'm happy to be shown otherwise.
Apparently James Carville is telling US Democrats to not go 'too far left'.
No surprise, he played a huge role in helping one of Bolivia's worst right-wing presidents, who massacred the people of El Alto when they protested against his privatization of gas. Thread👇
Carville's consulting firm (Greenberg Carville Shrum) managed president Goni's re-election campaign in 2002. Goni was an unpopular, US educated, neoliberal president who barely spoke spanish. Carville's firm delivered him a narrow victory against Evo in a fraudulent election.
This election was important for the US because Goni was trying to privatize Bolivia's natural gas reserves, whereas Evo promised to nationalize it. Huge interests were relying on a Goni victory.
People haven't given up in Bolivia following the coup. The indigenous city of El Alto, next to La Paz, is still fighting. Anti-coup protesters have been setting up road blocks last night and this morning. This is the district 'Ex Tranca' (vid: @RoseugeH)
@RoseugeH The problem facing those resisting the coup is that there's little leadership or direction now that Evo has been forced out. Those opposed to the coup have taken out their anger against buildings believed to be owned to coup leader Camacho (Sofia factory)
@RoseugeH In reality it's not owned by Camacho, but right-wing attacks on public media have meant very little verified information can be circulated, fake news on social media has filled the vacuum. The coup has won but hasn't been able to build a new functioning government, chaos rules.