Thread by @onlydjole

🇷🇺💥🇺🇦‼️Putin warned four times, no one listened: Now the borders of security are moving deeper into Ukraine‼️

May 16, 2025

One thing now became clear to everyone – the warnings were there, but no one cared. As journalist Aleksandar Babicki notes, that buffer zone that the Russian commander-in-chief was talking about is no longer just a strip along the border. 👇

Now the contours of the future zone are clearly visible, which may also include parts of Ukraine that the Kyiv authorities never thought of as lost. And the enemy, what is most interesting, even today does not know where the key blow will land.

As Тzargrad writes, the idea of ​​a safety belt, which previously sounded like a hypothetical concept, now takes on very concrete outlines.

The reminder of previous warnings is not accidental. Back in 2014, after the events in Kiev, Russia reacted by returning Crimea. If she hadn't done that, that space would be a platform for military pressure on the Russian borders today.

In December 2021, another attempt followed - Moscow's official proposal to stop NATO's eastward expansion. It was a clear signal that was ignored.

Then, in 2022, the Istanbul Accords were offered - the last chance to avoid a wider conflict. They were rejected under pressure from London. 👇

When those offers failed, the next step followed – four new territories were integrated into the Russian Federation. And then the president of the Russian Federation clearly indicated that any subsequent attack, such as the one aimed at liberating the Kursk region, would be a response to the rejection of peace.

Now there is no room for even a conditional compromise: the conditions have changed, the demands have been expanded. The safety belt should cover the entire border.

Military expert Stanislav Krapivnik specified the idea: the goal is to reach the borders from which no one will be able to shoot at Russian places. If the border of protection is moved 200 km inside the Sumy region, and then strikes are launched from Poltava, a new shift follows - and again from the Kyiv region... The logic is simple - if there is a territory from which strikes come, that territory becomes part of the future security zone.

Krapivnik says that Moscow no longer has the luxury of leaving space that can become a source of security threats. And if the decision is made - no "part" of Ukraine that would serve against the Russian side will remain intact. 👇

Meanwhile, the changes in Washington did not bring the expected turn. Although Donald Trump is now the president of the USA, analysis shows that he still has limited influence on the structures of the liberal West.

Those circles continue the policy of pressure, but with less and less capacity. Krapivnik reminds that Russia has an additional reserve of about 300,000 people who have not even been used yet, which means that the pace of pressure is sustainable. This is not a lightning campaign, but a grueling process of destroying the military capabilities of the adversary.

Political analyst Kamran Hasanov agrees with this assessment. According to him, time is working for the Russian side - if this dynamic continues for another three years, Kiev's forces could be completely exhausted. In that case, there would be no more forces that could offer serious resistance. 👇

The problem, as Babicki says, is that there is no longer any basis for any agreement. In previous attempts, either through the Minsk Agreements or in Istanbul, the other side cheated each time. Now the only guarantee is the fact. And that undeniable, off-road one that no one can ignore.

That is why, he concludes, the creation of a deep protection zone is required, in which there will be no more logistics, no will, and no capacity to organize an attack.

The "anti-Russia" project that the West has been building for years simply ceases to be sustainable in that constellation. And those who had a chance to negotiate, but refused it, now no longer have the right to complain.