🧵1/ Viktor Orbán’s imperial dreams.
Covert ops in Ukraine to becoming a hub in the EU for China and Putin, Orbán is laying the groundwork for something much bigger - and far more dangerous - for Europe.
Let’s unpack what’s happening. 👇
Covert ops in Ukraine to becoming a hub in the EU for China and Putin, Orbán is laying the groundwork for something much bigger - and far more dangerous - for Europe.
Let’s unpack what’s happening. 👇
2/ Ukraine recently exposed a Hungarian military intel network operating in Zakarpattia - a Ukrainian region with a sizable Hungarian minority.
The goal?
Quiet preparation for future territorial claims under the “protecting ethnic minorities” excuse (like russia does).
The goal?
Quiet preparation for future territorial claims under the “protecting ethnic minorities” excuse (like russia does).
3/ This is straight out of the Kremlin’s playbook.
And it’s not the only thing Orbán borrowed from Putin: he’s built a loyal inner circle, looted the country, and turned Hungary into the EU’s most corrupt state while consolidating autocratic power.
And it’s not the only thing Orbán borrowed from Putin: he’s built a loyal inner circle, looted the country, and turned Hungary into the EU’s most corrupt state while consolidating autocratic power.
4/ Hungary’s army isn’t ready for real war.
But intelligence and defense planning documents suggest limited operations could be launched under a “peacekeeping” banner - but only if Russia defeats Ukraine.
That dream is fading, but the ambition remains.
But intelligence and defense planning documents suggest limited operations could be launched under a “peacekeeping” banner - but only if Russia defeats Ukraine.
That dream is fading, but the ambition remains.
5/ One pro-Orbán account - followed by Hungary’s defense minister - posted a video fantasizing about invading Western Ukraine, captioned: “Operation Turul Coming Soon…”
Leaked audio confirms Orbán's army is being reshaped for “phase zero” of the road to war.
Leaked audio confirms Orbán's army is being reshaped for “phase zero” of the road to war.
6/ But Orbán misread the room.
Local ethnic Hungarians now feel more Ukrainian than ever.
“Hungary’s response to the invasion alienated much of the Hungarian-speaking population,” wrote Zakarpattia-based UK academic @joseph__place
Local ethnic Hungarians now feel more Ukrainian than ever.
“Hungary’s response to the invasion alienated much of the Hungarian-speaking population,” wrote Zakarpattia-based UK academic @joseph__place
@joseph__place 7/ Why does Orbán want Zakarpattia?
Part nationalism. Part nostalgia for pre-Trianon Hungary.
And part Russophilia.
The same mindset exists in his rhetoric about Romania’s Transylvania, where 1.2M ethnic Hungarians live.
Part nationalism. Part nostalgia for pre-Trianon Hungary.
And part Russophilia.
The same mindset exists in his rhetoric about Romania’s Transylvania, where 1.2M ethnic Hungarians live.
@joseph__place 8/ Meanwhile, around 300–400 ethnic Hungarians are fighting for Ukraine on the frontlines.
Orbán may dream of conquest, but many in the diaspora are risking their lives to defend the very country he’s plotting against.
Orbán may dream of conquest, but many in the diaspora are risking their lives to defend the very country he’s plotting against.
9/ Orbán’s ambitions don’t stop at Ukraine.
Investigative journalist @panyiszabolcs notes Hungary’s real focus may be the Balkans: meddling in Bosnia, selling arms to Serbia, and deploying special forces to back Banja Luka strongman Milorad Dodik.
Investigative journalist @panyiszabolcs notes Hungary’s real focus may be the Balkans: meddling in Bosnia, selling arms to Serbia, and deploying special forces to back Banja Luka strongman Milorad Dodik.
@panyiszabolcs 10/ Hungary’s army couldn’t take on Ukraine even if it tried.
Panyi says it plainly: “Hungary’s army is wholly unprepared for any type of conflict with anyone. Ukraine’s army is so superior, it’s completely unrealistic Orbán would engage in direct fighting.”
Panyi says it plainly: “Hungary’s army is wholly unprepared for any type of conflict with anyone. Ukraine’s army is so superior, it’s completely unrealistic Orbán would engage in direct fighting.”
11/ Meanwhile, Hungary drifts East.
Orbán cozies up to China, allowing Chinese police patrols on Hungarian streets and welcoming 44% of China’s European investment. The country now serves as a spy hub for both Beijing and Moscow.
Orbán cozies up to China, allowing Chinese police patrols on Hungarian streets and welcoming 44% of China’s European investment. The country now serves as a spy hub for both Beijing and Moscow.
12/ Orbán is betting heavily on Chinese investment to fuel his reelection campaign.
Hungary is now more ideologically aligned with China than much of Europe, and China has become Hungary’s largest foreign investor.
Hungary is now more ideologically aligned with China than much of Europe, and China has become Hungary’s largest foreign investor.
13/ Orbán hoped Trump would help reintegrate Russia into Europe.
Instead, Putin ignored Trump’s calls for peace and is planning a new offensive.
Hungary is now caught between Trump's anti-China agenda and its deepening Beijing ties.
Instead, Putin ignored Trump’s calls for peace and is planning a new offensive.
Hungary is now caught between Trump's anti-China agenda and its deepening Beijing ties.
14/ “One of Washington’s long-standing goals was to prevent China from aligning too closely with Russia," said @SashaUstinovaUA, a Ukrainian member of parliament.
@SashaUstinovaUA 15/ "Yet we now see the opposite: China growing bolder, Russia acting with impunity, and the West struggling to present a united front," said @SashaUstinovaUA.
16/ Meanwhile, China is building a foothold in the heart of Europe, right under the nose of Trump’s administration.
Hungary is now a hub for Chinese and Russian spies.
Hungary is now a hub for Chinese and Russian spies.
17/ Domestically, things are unraveling.
The opposition TISZA party has surged 14 points ahead of Orbán’s Fidesz, threatening a 2/3 parliamentary majority in 2026.
Orbán is responding the way authoritarians do: smear campaigns and threats of martial law.
The opposition TISZA party has surged 14 points ahead of Orbán’s Fidesz, threatening a 2/3 parliamentary majority in 2026.
Orbán is responding the way authoritarians do: smear campaigns and threats of martial law.
18/ Orbán may believe war or a crisis could save his power.
But if he tries Putin’s path and invades Ukraine, his military would be crushed, and it could spell the end of his rule.
History is watching.
And it rarely forgives imperial fantasies.
But if he tries Putin’s path and invades Ukraine, his military would be crushed, and it could spell the end of his rule.
History is watching.
And it rarely forgives imperial fantasies.
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