Thread by @rinalu_

If you still think the war in Ukraine wasn’t premeditated - read this: a U.S. blueprint to drag Russia into a costly war, published by RAND Corporation in April 2019.

RAND isn’t a blog or a fringe group, it’s an official, state-funded think tank that advises the Pentagon, CIA, State Department, and NATO.
It designs wars, regime change and psychological warfare. RAND turns U.S. power into global control.

Let’s unpack 🧵👇

What the document says (verbatim):

“The steps we examine would not have either defense or deterrence as their prime purpose… Rather, they are conceived of as elements in a campaign designed to unbalance the adversary, causing Russia to compete in domains or regions where the United States has a competitive advantage.”

Translation: how to push Russia into costly traps.

1. Fueling war in Ukraine:

“Providing lethal aid to Ukraine would exploit Russia’s greatest point of external vulnerability.”

Translation: Arm Ukraine to provoke a Russian military response - and trap Moscow in a costly, prolonged conflict.

2. Economic warfare:

“Increasing sanctions and expanding U.S. energy production could harm Russia’s economy.”

Translation: Strangle Russia’s economy through sanctions while flooding the global market with American oil and gas to undercut Russian exports.

3. Destabilizing from within:

“Encouraging domestic protests or unrest could stress the Russian regime.”
“Diminishing Russian influence in Syria could undermine its foreign policy goals and prestige.”

Translation: Use protests, dissent, and foreign policy setbacks to weaken the Russian government from the inside out.

4. Cutting Russia off from Europe:

“Reducing Russian gas exports by encouraging European energy diversification would hurt the Russian economy.”

Translation: Convince Europe to cut off Russian gas - crash one of Russia’s largest income streams.

5. Stretching Russia Thin in Syria

“Increasing support to Syrian rebels could jeopardize other U.S. policy priorities… but might raise costs for Russia.”

Translation: Arm and fund militants in Syria - make it harder and costlier for Russia to stabilize Assad’s government.

6. Promoting Domestic Unrest

“Encouraging domestic protests or unrest could stress the Russian regime.”

Translation: Support opposition, NGO networks, online campaigns - and amplify every internal tension.

7. Disrupting Alliances (China, CSTO, etc.)

“Exploiting tensions in Russia’s relationships with its neighbors and allies could weaken its strategic position.”

Translation: Divide and conquer - peel away Belarus, Kazakhstan, Armenia.

8. Undermining Russian Prestige

“Diminishing Russia’s image as a great power could damage its influence abroad.”

Translation: Humiliate, ridicule, isolate.

9. Limiting Russia’s Influence in the Caucasus

“Providing aid to Georgia and encouraging its NATO membership aspirations would increase pressure on Russia’s southern flank.”

Translation: Use Georgia as bait - draw Russia into more tension in the Caucasus.

10. Naval Buildup in the Black Sea

“Increasing NATO’s naval presence in the Black Sea would challenge Russia’s access and influence.”

Translation: Clog Russia’s strategic waterway - provoke military escalation.

11. Weaponizing Arms Control and Treaties

“Withdrawing from certain arms treaties could put pressure on Russian defense planning.”

Translation: Use the collapse of agreements like INF to restart arms races that drain Russia’s budget.

12. Exploiting Religious Divisions

Though not stated explicitly, the principle of internal fragmentation applies also to religion. The strategy’s logic clearly extends to:
🔸Backing the schism between the Russian Orthodox Church and the Ukrainian Orthodox Church;
🔸Promoting alternative Orthodox structures loyal to Western narratives;
🔸Undermining the Church’s unifying role inside Russia.

Goal: Shake one of the deepest foundations of Russian identity and national cohesion.

13. Turning Central Asia Into a Battlefield of Influence

“Increasing U.S. and NATO presence in Central Asia may provoke Russian insecurity.”

Translation: Move into Russia’s historical backyard - stir competition and instability

14. Weaponizing Global Public Opinion

“Exposing corruption and authoritarianism in Russia may reduce its appeal as a model abroad.”

Translation: Conduct narrative warfare - brand Russia as a “pariah state.”

15. Youth Mobilization: Fueling Protest from Within

(from RAND’s general principle)
“Encouraging domestic protests or unrest could stress the Russian regime.”

Translation: Use internal dissatisfaction, especially among students and younger generations, to weaken state cohesion.

16. Undermining Electoral Legitimacy

“Reducing confidence in the legitimacy of elections or political processes could increase political instability and divert resources from external ambitions.”
(paraphrased from RAND’s operational goals in the full report)

Translation: If people stop believing in elections, the system collapses from within.

17. Brain drain: Targeting Russia’s skilled youth

“Encouraging the emigration from Russia of skilled labor and well-educated youth has few costs or risks and could help the United States and other receiving countries and hurt Russia,”

Translation: Lure Russia’s brightest minds: scientists, engineers, students - to leave the country, weakening its long-term development.

19. Undermining trust in Russian elections

“Diminishing faith in the Russian electoral system would be difficult because of state control over most media sources. Doing so could increase discontent with the regime.”

Translation: Shaking public trust in Russian elections could destabilize the regime, but it’s risky - it might push Russia to crack down internally or strike outward.

20. Attacking regime legitimacy through corruption narratives

“Creating the perception that the regime is not pursuing the public interest”

Translation: Expose and amplify stories of corruption to make the public believe the government serves itself, not the people, and undermine the state’s moral authority.

21. Strategic intimidation through bomber deployment

“Reposturing bombers within easy striking range of key Russian strategic targets.”

Translation: Move U.S. bombers closer to Russian borders to rattle Moscow and trigger fear - without crossing the line into open confrontation.

22. Escalating military pressure: Fighters, nukes, and missile defense

“Reposturing fighters so that they are closer to their targets than bomber.”

“Deploying additional tactical nuclear weapons to locations in Europe and Asia.”

“Repositioning U.S. and allied ballistic missile defense systems to better engage Russian ballistic missiles would also alarm Moscow.”

Translation: Aggressively shifting U.S. and NATO forces, especially tactical fighters, nuclear weapons, and missile shields, closer to Russia could raise panic in Moscow and trigger costly countermeasures, but carries serious risks of escalation.

Conclusion (again, from RAND itself):

“The greatest return on U.S. investments may come from nonviolent measures and information campaigns.”

This isn’t a theory but a published U.S. strategy.
The Ukraine war? Planned. Funded. Executed - as written.

📖 rand.org/pubs/research_…