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May 19 19 tweets 6 min read Read on X
1/ The 1979 Iranian Revolution is often taught as a spontaneous uprising of the oppressed against a U.S. backed dictator. But this version of events omits what followed: the swift hijacking of a popular revolt by a Shia clerical vanguard that consolidated power with breathtaking speed. This was not a revolution in the classical sense, it was a well-executed religious capture, carefully staged, externally tolerated, and later mythologised into folklore.
2/ Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the revolution’s so-called architect, did not rise from the streets of Tehran. He returned from a Parisian suburb. Exiled in Neauphle-le-Château, France, in 1978, Khomeini transformed that quiet village into a global broadcasting center. French authorities granted him total freedom of movement, communication, and access to global press, a level of liberty denied to most exiled revolutionaries. His aides ran a PR operation rivaling any modern political campaign. Cassettes of his speeches were smuggled back into Iran by the thousands. Western outlets, notably the BBC Persian Service, amplified his message, presenting him not as a Shia absolutist, but as a spiritual democrat.
3/ France’s tolerance of Khomeini’s revolution was no accident. At the January 1979 Guadeloupe Conference, leaders from France, the U.S., West Germany, and the UK agreed the Shah’s days were numbered. Western intelligence agencies had long assessed the risk of a communist takeover if the monarchy collapsed. Khomeini’s Shia clerical network was seen as a preferable alternative: hostile to the USSR, religiously grounded, and, critically, capable of neutralising the growing leftist tide. This quiet consensus allowed the West, and France in particular, to facilitate a controlled transition without appearing to interfere.
4/ France had done this before. Under the League of Nations mandate over Syria (1920–1946), France created the Alawite State, a sectarian enclave governed separately from Sunni majority Syria. The French colonial strategy hinged on empowering minorities to rule over majorities, thereby securing loyalty. They disproportionately recruited Alawites, members of a small Shia sect, into military academies and local administration. This engineered imbalance laid the foundation for Hafez al-Assad’s military ascent and the eventual dynastic rule of the Alawite Assad family over Syria.
5/ In both Syria and Iran, France facilitated a sectarian class’s rise by exploiting societal fractures. In Iran, France provided a launching pad for a Shia clerical coup. In Syria, it nurtured an Alawite military elite. Both regimes weaponised religion and identity to entrench power. And both regimes have since used that power (Assad now gone) to wage regional campaigns under the guise of anti-imperial resistance, while internally suppressing all dissent.
6/ The Iranian Revolution’s first casualty was pluralism. Once in power, Khomeini’s circle moved swiftly. The 1979 constitution enshrined Wilayat al-Faqih, a doctrine placing ultimate authority in the hands of a single Shia jurist, the Supreme Leader. This was not an organic evolution of Islamic governance. It was a doctrinal innovation rejected by many senior Shia clerics, including Khomeini’s own mentor Ayatollah Boroujerdi. But within Iran, this dissent was extinguished. The theological became political, and the political became sacrosanct.
7/ The new Islamic Republic wasted no time in eliminating ideological competition. Leftists in the Tudeh Party were purged. The nationalist Freedom Movement under Bazargan was neutralised. The Mujahedin-e-Khalq, a militant Islamist-Marxist hybrid, were declared enemies of the state. Ethnic minorities who had supported the revolution, Kurds, Arabs, Baloch, were labeled separatists and met with military violence. What had begun as a diverse anti-Shah coalition was reduced to a single ruling caste: Qom-trained Shia clerics, loyal to Khomeini and intolerant of all rivals.
8/ This internal theocratic consolidation paralleled Iran’s foreign ambitions. By the early 1980s, the Islamic Republic began exporting its revolution as a blueprint for Shia political ascendancy. The IRGC’s Quds Force became a transnational operations arm. Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Supreme Council in Iraq, and later the Houthis in Yemen were all nurtured by Iran, for building a durable network of sectarian-aligned militias capable of shifting regional power balances.
9/ France’s own commercial calculus in this new Iran remained intact. Despite the hostage crisis and the rhetoric of “Death to America,” French businesses never fully disengaged. French telecom, arms dealers, and later energy companies like Total found pathways back into Iran’s markets. What France had enabled ideologically, it continued to exploit economically. This was about influence, first geopolitical, then commercial.
10/ The French Mandate in Syria and the French hospitality to Khomeini were not disconnected episodes. They reflect a persistent colonial tactic: weaponise religious minorities to create regimes that are too sectarian to be democratic, but too stable to be easily overthrown. In both cases, France facilitated the emergence of regimes that would, over time, dominate their regions not through popular legitimacy, but through sectarian patronage systems.
11/ The Assad regime in Syria, founded on the Alawite military infrastructure France designed, became one of Iran’s closest allies. Tehran’s intervention in the Syrian civil war was not ideological, it was existential. Assad’s fall would have undone decades of Iranian strategic depth. The Shia axis from Tehran to Beirut, facilitated by France in both origin points, was now defended by blood, propaganda, and proxy war.
12/ This sectarian axis, built in Paris, cemented in Qom and Damascus, and enforced by Hezbollah and the IRGC, is the true legacy of the 1979 revolution. It is not a liberation story. It is a transnational architecture of minority authoritarianism: regimes rooted in sectarian identity, exporting ideology under the cloak of resistance, and legitimised by historical myths carefully curated by state machinery.
13/ Khomeini’s revolution was enabled, by Western realpolitik, by French hospitality, and by an underestimation of how effectively sectarian ideology can be weaponised when fused with militarized theology. The clerical state that emerged was the outcome of deliberate decisions made in embassies, boardrooms, and intelligence briefings.
14/ Today, the Islamic Republic survives by recycling the tropes of its origin myth: resisting the West, protecting the oppressed, and preserving Islamic dignity. But behind these slogans lies a regime that tortures dissidents, executes protesters, and imprisons women for demanding autonomy. Its real mission is survival, of the clerical caste, not the Islamic nation.
15/ To critique the 1979 Revolution honestly is to dismantle the comfortable lies surrounding it. It was not a victory of faith over tyranny. It was a sectarian capture, midwifed by French calculation and Western indifference, that gave rise to one of the most rigid authoritarian systems in the modern world.
16/ The real revolution, the one stolen in 1979, was never allowed to unfold. It was systematically suffocated before it could take form. The revolutionary energy that surged from the bazaars, universities, and working-class neighborhoods of Tehran did not culminate in self-determination, pluralism, or national rebirth. It was diverted. What should have been the beginning of a new republican order was instead redirected into a sectarian cul-de-sac, orchestrated in the private drawing rooms of Paris and the conference halls of Guadeloupe.
17/ In Paris, a cleric in exile was granted a stage and a signal. Khomeini’s messages were polished, broadcast, and mythologised through Western media channels, while more grounded, democratic, or leftist voices inside Iran were either sidelined or criminalised. Meanwhile, at the Guadeloupe Conference in January 1979, four men, Giscard d’Estaing, Jimmy Carter, Helmut Schmidt, and James Callaghan, decided that Iran’s monarchy was unsalvageable, and a controlled transition was preferable to the risk of communist infiltration. Khomeini, with his theocratic credentials and nationalist rhetoric, was the least dangerous option. Not ideal, but manageable.
18/ The cost of that decision was paid in Sanandaj, where Kurdish aspirations for autonomy were met with martial law; in Khuzestan, where Arab workers demanding labor rights were bombed by helicopter gunships; and in Balochistan, where Sunni tribes were imprisoned en masse. Across Iran’s diverse periphery, those who had hoped for decentralisation, social justice, and representation found themselves staring down the barrel of tanks operated by the very regime they had helped bring to power.
19/19 The revolution they fought for, multiethnic, ideologically diverse, and grounded in collective emancipation, was liquidated. In its place rose a clerical caste that fused mosque with military, shrouded its monopoly on power in sacred language, and recast dissent as heresy. What the people birthed in the name of liberation was swiftly hijacked by those who believed obedience to a single jurist was the highest form of citizenship.

This was not the Islamic Republic of the people, it was the Islamic Emirate of the elite. Rule by turban, sanctioned by bayonet. A republic in name only. A theocracy in full. And it began, not in Qom or Tehran, but in Paris.

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More from @FrameTheGlobe

May 21
1/ The UAE exercises extraordinary control over Pakistan's economy through the strategic management of its labour market. Not only does the UAE host approximately 1.5 million Pakistani workers (making it the second-largest destination after Saudi Arabia), but these migrants represent Pakistan's economic lifeline, sending back over $7 billion in 2024, with $4.1 billion in March 2025 alone.
2/ This dependency has been methodically weaponised. The UAE's January 2025 visa restriction policy specifically targeting "low-skilled" Pakistani workers represents a calculated strategy to reshape Pakistan's labour exports while signaling political displeasure. These restrictions were precision strikes against Pakistan's most vulnerable economic point.

The Pakistani Ambassador's public pivot toward training "high-skilled" workers in AI, IT, and healthcare is a forced recalibration of Pakistan's human capital strategy to serve Emirati interests. When Ambassador Tirmizi announced plans for a new nursing program specifically designed to meet UAE standards, he was effectively acknowledging that Pakistan must now design its educational and vocational systems around Gulf requirements.
Most telling is the timing of these restrictions, often coinciding with moments of political assertiveness from Islamabad. The UAE curates, manages, and disciplines Pakistani labour according to its geopolitical and domestic priorities, effectively turning Pakistan's 1.5 million workers into economic hostages to ensure policy compliance.
3/ The "Dubai Unlocked" investigation exposed what amounts to the most sophisticated elite capture operation in modern geopolitics. The revelation that Pakistani nationals own 23,000 properties worth $11 billion in Dubai is merely the visible portion of a deliberate strategy to compromise Pakistan's leadership class.

Dubai has effectively become the offshore treasury of Pakistan's ruling class. What makes this system particularly insidious is the selective enforcement capability it provides the UAE. Since many of these properties remain undeclared in Pakistan, the UAE possesses what amounts to prosecutorial leverage over Pakistan's most powerful decision-makers. Former FBR Chairman Shabbar Zaidi wasn't exaggerating when he described these holdings as creating "close ties between the elite in Pakistan and the UAE", these are collateral for compliance.
Read 22 tweets
May 21
1/ What is the UAE Statecraft policy?

The UAE's assertive statecraft operates behind a veneer of modernity, gleaming skyscrapers, art festivals, and AI initiatives mask a ruthless doctrine. At its core lies a systematic approach to eliminate opposition, contain Islamic political expression, and prevent grassroots political movements. This model is methodically exported across the region through strategic interventions and enforced domestically through sophisticated surveillance.

When evaluated against traditional Islamic governance principles of justice (adl), accountability (muhasabah), and consultation (shura), the Emirati system represents their antithesis. The regime has effectively substituted the concept of ummah (community) with rigid order, and tawheed (divine unity) with centralised control. Behind the facade of progress lies a calculated strategy: stability through suppression, legitimacy through luxury.
2/ Sudan’s 2019 revolution offered a rare opening for African Islamic democracy, a grassroots uprising that toppled Bashir and demanded civilian rule. But the UAE, fearing the rise of another Ennahda, or Brotherhood-style movement, responded by bankrolling Sudan’s counter-revolution. It armed the RSF, descended from Janjaweed militias, infamous for genocid3 in Darfur. These units burned villages, raped civilians, looted artisanal gold mines, and executed protest leaders in Khartoum. UAE cargo planes flew in drones and armoured vehicles via Amdjarass, while Abu Dhabi’s diplomats lobbied in Geneva to sanitise RSF war crimes. This was authoritarian logistics. Mass murder exchanged for gold futures. Instability doesn’t scare the UAE. It monetises it, so long as it holds the supply chains and signs the contracts.
3/ Post-Gaddafi Libya offered a rare void of centralised authority, and the UAE rushed in with drones and proxies. Backing Khalifa Haftar was about blocking Islamic self-governance in Tripoli. Emirati drones bombed hospitals and migrant detention centers. Wagner mercenaries, many trained in UAE military zones, provided ground firepower. The Al Khadim Airbase in eastern Libya became a launchpad for illegal aerial operations. Even after UN ceasefires, UAE-linked logistics networks continued arms drops, oil port disruptions, and political sabotage. Libya became more than a battlefield, it became Abu Dhabi’s prototype for outsourced war: destabilise the state, freeze the conflict, and sit atop the rubble as energy broker, intelligence partner, and ideological gatekeeper.
Read 15 tweets
May 17
1/ For decades, Pakistan played both host and saboteur in Afghanistan. It nurtured the Taliban as a buffer against Indian influence and Pashtun nationalism, while simultaneously courting the U.S. for billions in aid during the global war on terror. But as the 2025 Indo-Pak crisis escalates, a shocking twist has emerged: Taliban deputy interior minister Ibrahim Sadr, once sheltered by Iran and hostile to Pakistan, has traveled secretly to New Delhi. His presence signals that Pakistan’s carefully managed Afghan buffer is unraveling, and its rivals, Iran and India, are quietly stitching new arrangements atop the wreckage.
2/ In the late 1990s, as Pakistan and Saudi Arabia backed the Taliban’s rise, Iran threw its weight behind the Northern Alliance, a coalition of mostly Tajik, Hazara, and Uzbek factions bitterly opposed to the Taliban’s Sunni-Pashtun fundamentalism. Ahmad Shah Massoud, the Northern Alliance commander, received arms, money, and intelligence support from Tehran, while India and Russia provided parallel backing. This created a regional proxy war inside Afghanistan, with Pakistan and the Taliban on one side, and Iran, India, and Massoud’s alliance on the other. The fault lines were strategic: Tehran and Delhi feared encirclement.
3/ Post-9/11, the U.S. invasion temporarily aligned these rivalries. Iran and India cooperated with Washington to prop up the post-Taliban Afghan government. Meanwhile, Pakistan reinvented itself as a U.S. ally, while quietly shielding Taliban safe havens in Quetta and Waziristan. This duplicity created what U.S. officials later described as “the most expensive lie in American foreign policy.” Pakistan facilitated drone strikes on al-Qaeda while protecting the Taliban leadership. The cost: over $30 billion in U.S. aid, 80,000+ Pakistani casualties, and a forever war that ultimately restored the Taliban to power.
Read 10 tweets
May 16
1/ General Yahya Khan, Pakistan’s Commander-in-Chief and later President (1969–1971), was of Central Asian Tajik origin, born into a Persian-speaking Shia family. While personally secular and politically pragmatic, Yahya’s cultural identity placed him outside the emerging Sunni-Deobandi current gaining traction in West Pakistan’s officer corps. His command reflected a pre-Zia military ethos: Persianate, post-colonial, and Western-aligned. But this profile also created a disconnect between the ruling elite and the Sunni-majority periphery it governed, especially East Pakistan.
2/ Though Yahya himself had Shia lineage, the Pakistan Army’s top command during the 1971 war was diverse but majority Sunni. Generals such as Abdul Hamid Khan (Chief of Staff), Tikka Khan (Governor of East Pakistan), and A.A.K. Niazi (Eastern Command) were all Sunni Muslims. However, sectarian identity was not an institutional marker at the time, and promotions were driven by loyalty, colonial pedigree, and martial race ideology. While Yahya’s sect was noted, it did not define institutional policy. What mattered more was Western geopolitical alignment, especially with Iran and the Gulf.
3/ The Shah of Iran was a close ally of Yahya’s Pakistan. Both regimes were Western-aligned, anti-communist, and deeply distrustful of populism. As India tilted toward the Soviet Union, Iran saw West Pakistan as a strategic buffer. Tehran provided Yahya diplomatic support at the UN, reportedly facilitated backchannel arms logistics via Jordan and Turkey, and maintained a consistent public silence during the military’s crackdown in East Pakistan. This was strategic calculus: better a pro-U.S. military junta than a fractured, Bengali-dominated, potentially non-aligned Muslim state.
Read 13 tweets
May 3
Mian Mansha Profile:

1/ Mian Muhammad Mansha is Pakistan’s most powerful and politically embedded tycoon. His rise from a provincial textile heir to the architect of a sprawling economic empire offers a case study in how privatization, political protection, and financial engineering create oligarchs.
2/ The foundation was Nishat Mills, inherited in the late 1960s. But the game changed in 1991, when Nawaz Sharif’s government launched Pakistan’s first major wave of privatizations. Despite not being the top bidder, Mansha’s consortium was awarded Muslim Commercial Bank, allegedly after matching the highest bid behind closed doors.
3/ What followed was even murkier: Mansha’s team used MCB’s own funds, bank depositor money, to finance the purchase of MCB shares. It was a self-financed acquisition of a national bank. Later NAB investigations acknowledged the fraud but stopped short of prosecuting. The state had already moved on.
Read 10 tweets
Apr 6
1/8 Trump’s return to office brought Afghanistan back into play. One of his first moves? Demand the Taliban return U.S. weapons left behind post-withdrawal, linking it directly to billions in frozen aid.
2/8 The Taliban refused. For them, the abandoned U.S. gear wasn’t hardware, it was the “spoils of war.” Trump countered with threats to pull humanitarian assistance meant to stabilize the collapsing Afghan economy.
3/8 Surprisingly, dialogue followed. A U.S. delegation quietly met Taliban officials in Kabul, the first such visit since the 2021 fall. The Taliban released two U.S. citizens in return. Washington responded by lifting bounties on key Haqqani figures.
Read 8 tweets

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