Vibe coding platforms are blowing up. But the data shows it's more of a creation vs. a consumption story.
Ex. @lovable_dev - traffic to Lovable itself is 3x greater than all traffic to sites published on Lovable 👇
People are making things for themselves...not the world (yet!)
These products will only get better as the models improve. And, there is clearly builder excitement!
I see enormous opportunity in product execution that will be key to "winning" the space - and hope to see vibe coding platforms hosting apps that themselves get massive traffic.
A few Qs I think are key:
- What constraints do you impose, and how do you communicate them?
- How do you tradeoff mass market appeal from expressiveness?
- How do you make it FUN?
- How do you build in "vibe deploying" and "vibe debugging" in a similarly delightful way?
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🧵💀 As @pmarca says “There is no substitute for knowing what you’re doing.”
I’m convinced that most product managers / designers have no idea what to build and have instead created a bunch of process to mask this failure. I count myself in this group at times in my career 👇🏽
So there are just two types of projects. Projects where a person who Knows What To Build tells you and everyone builds it. And projects where you have to hit a metric and it doesn’t matter what you build as long as you hit it. Let’s call them Type 1 and Type 2 projects.
The problem with Type 1 projects is that no one knows what to build. Most companies have zero people who have this skill but even if they do the person gets drowned out by the org.
Yep, we just invested in @ArcBoats the "Tesla for Boats". Why?
- Repeat founders + team from SpaceX, TSLA & Boeing
- Electric is a 10x for every part of boating: no maintenance, cheaper, quicker, and unlocks access to protected waters
-Aerospace design practices & A+ software
👇🏽
When I learned that two of the best engineers from Credit Karma (Mitch Lee) and SpaceX (Ryan Cook) were teaming up to build the "Telsa of boats", I was intrigued to say the least. Today, say hello to Arc Boats: arcboats.com
I knew Mitch (@dontmitch) from my Karma days. He could not only code, but also lead teams and inspire an organization. Proof point: he was the only non-executive named as a "key man" when Credit Karma was acquired by INTU.
1/n Financial services are often though of as a zero sum game - there's a fixed pie and therefore “winning” is finding clever ways to take a bigger piece of it.
But the intersection of tech and finance has actually been characterized by positive sum outcomes - a bigger pie!
2/n Let's talk about negative sum (where both parties are worse off as a result) v. zero sum (where one party must lose so that another can win) v. positive sum (both parties are better off) situations in financial services, and why the fintech approach is so important.
3/n Negative sum: A real world example is tariffs in trade - typically both countries typically suffer as a result of tariffs and barriers to trade.
In financial services: Debt settlement - the lenders and the borrowers both suffer.
💥 New post today on three key lessons I learned at @Creditkarma in moving from a generalist consumer internet PM to a specialized consumer fintech PM: a16z.com/2020/02/26/fin…
Lesson 1: Segment users based on credit, income, or another financial attribute that can be instrumented and targeted. In a world where everyone’s financial choices are deeply personal PMs need some way to simplify and group consumers + target in AB tests.
Typical user profiles fall over b/c they are too general and hard to target - instead segment on (rough) proxies like score band (subprime / nearprime / prime / super prime ) and then refine from there.
1/5 Though there may be some discussion to be had on long term market dynamics for Neobanks, perspectives like this seem to miss the point. It’s not about neobanks having better underwriting or technology per se:
2/5 I believe Neobanks will acquire customers by redistributing profit pools like overdraft ($32bn/year) back to consumers, which incumbents will struggle to match b/c it’s short term profit destroying for them (thus hard to prioritize internally).
3/5 And they will carry structurally lower costs through vertical integration of products + tech in areas with high legacy costs or where middlemen reign (401k, brokerage etc).