Most people don’t realize what happens when Tesla flips the switch on Robotaxis.
This isn’t just a new product launch — it’s the beginning of the end for legacy auto.
🧵
This isn’t just a new product launch — it’s the beginning of the end for legacy auto.
🧵
1.When Tesla unlocks Robotaxis, it fundamentally changes what a car is.
It’s no longer a depreciating liability. It becomes an income-producing asset.
Once that idea clicks, demand pressure for Teslas explodes. Everyone who needs a car — or wants passive income — will have only one logical choice: buy a Tesla.
It’s no longer a depreciating liability. It becomes an income-producing asset.
Once that idea clicks, demand pressure for Teslas explodes. Everyone who needs a car — or wants passive income — will have only one logical choice: buy a Tesla.
2.Meanwhile, what happens to every other automaker?
They continue producing depreciating products that lose value by design, while Tesla sells cars that generate yield.
This is a nuclear-level disruption.
They continue producing depreciating products that lose value by design, while Tesla sells cars that generate yield.
This is a nuclear-level disruption.
here’s where it gets deadly.
As demand for non-Tesla vehicles collapses, those factories drop below breakeven utilization. At scale, automaking is a volume game — and if Toyota, for example, falls from 10M units to 8M, the business becomes structurally unprofitable.
Negative gross margins.3.Now
As demand for non-Tesla vehicles collapses, those factories drop below breakeven utilization. At scale, automaking is a volume game — and if Toyota, for example, falls from 10M units to 8M, the business becomes structurally unprofitable.
Negative gross margins.3.Now
4.That demand shock causes a vicious feedback loop:
•Lower production → higher unit costs
•Higher costs → higher MSRPs
•Higher prices → even lower demand
•Lower demand → worse margins, further production cuts
•And so on.
This is a death spiral.
•Lower production → higher unit costs
•Higher costs → higher MSRPs
•Higher prices → even lower demand
•Lower demand → worse margins, further production cuts
•And so on.
This is a death spiral.
5.On top of this, there’s a time bomb in the background: auto loan residuals.
Every legacy automaker’s finance arm holds billions in auto loans based on assumed resale values.
But if used car values implode (because Robotaxis make traditional cars obsolete), these portfolios get vaporized.
Massive write-downs.
Every legacy automaker’s finance arm holds billions in auto loans based on assumed resale values.
But if used car values implode (because Robotaxis make traditional cars obsolete), these portfolios get vaporized.
Massive write-downs.
you’ve got:
•Crumbling demand
•Negative margins
•Collapsing resale values
•Debt-laden balance sheets
•And a new “car” on the market that makes people money
That’s not competition — that’s annihilation.6.So
•Crumbling demand
•Negative margins
•Collapsing resale values
•Debt-laden balance sheets
•And a new “car” on the market that makes people money
That’s not competition — that’s annihilation.6.So
7.The entire financial structure of the auto industry is built on throughput, residuals, and debt.
Robotaxis break all three.
Tesla doesn’t have to beat every automaker. It just has to flip autonomy to trigger the collapse of an industry that’s been on life support for a decade.
Robotaxis break all three.
Tesla doesn’t have to beat every automaker. It just has to flip autonomy to trigger the collapse of an industry that’s been on life support for a decade.
8.When it happens, it won’t be gradual.
It will look like it happened overnight.
One day, car companies will be worth $200B. The next, they’ll be worthless zombie shells sitting on top of toxic financing arms.
Tesla is not a car company.
It’s the catalyst.
It will look like it happened overnight.
One day, car companies will be worth $200B. The next, they’ll be worthless zombie shells sitting on top of toxic financing arms.
Tesla is not a car company.
It’s the catalyst.
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