William Huo Profile picture
Jun 7 9 tweets 1 min read Read on X
Another flashy Fed chart, another lesson in missing the point.

stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy…
Measuring trade without breaking down the goods is like counting calories without asking if it’s broccoli or beer. It matters. (1/8)
China exports mainly industrial goods—chips, machinery, components. The U.S. exports grain, aircraft, and intellectual property. Different leverage. (2/8)
Trading with China means relying on supply chains. Trading with the U.S. often means buying final goods or selling raw materials. Strategic dependency is one-sided. (3/8)
Volume stats ignore value added. Chinese goods can be low-margin but high-control. U.S. exports are often high-margin but not foundational. (4/8)
Services are missing from these numbers. The U.S. dominates finance, entertainment, and consulting. These shape power and influence, though they don’t show in container ports. (5/8)
Trade maps that crown China without this context are for headlines, not strategy. They count numbers and miss the real picture. (6/8)
This is a scoreboard for spectators, not a playbook for decision-makers. (7/8)
If you want to understand who really depends on whom, don’t ask how much they trade. Ask what breaks if the trade stops. (8/8)

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More from @wmhuo168

Jun 8
The U.S. and India Finally Have Something in Common: They're Both Failing Their People
Two global giants. Trillions in GDP. Yet both have become playgrounds for billionaires while their citizens drown in debt, hunger, and false promises.

timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india…
The U.S. and India have achieved something remarkable.

After five decades of neoliberalism, they’ve converged—not in prosperity, but in inequality.

A shared Gini coefficient. A shared contempt for their working class. (1/9)
India: 1.4 billion people, 77% of wealth held by the top 10%.

U.S.: The richest country in history, yet 6 in 10 Americans live paycheck to paycheck.

Different flags, same outcome—an elite feast on a starving majority. (2/9)
Read 10 tweets
Jun 8
Everyone’s watching fabs.
No one’s watching the chokepoints that actually matter.

China has quietly taken over chip packaging, OSAT, and HBM.
This is the part of the AI race no one in DC understands.

finance.yahoo.com/news/why-key-c…
China doesn’t just build fabs. It owns the back end. And it's coming for the rest. (1/16)
While the West obsesses over EUV and 2nm milestones, China focused on the grunt work: assembly, testing, and advanced packaging. That’s where the leverage sits. (2/16)
Read 17 tweets
Jun 8
While Sam Altman charges $20 for GPT-4 Vision, Xiaomi just open-sourced a model that runs circles around it.

marktechpost.com/2025/06/02/mim…
Xiaomi released a 7B vision-language model that outperforms Claude 3.5 Sonnet and Meta’s top-tier systems in document parsing, GUI control, and visual reasoning. (1/9)
It trained on 2.4 trillion tokens and uses a custom reward system combining reinforcement learning with logic-based verification. OpenAI doesn't offer anything comparable. (2/9)
Read 10 tweets
Jun 8
Forget Microsoft’s AI hype. China’s internet giants already own the future, running AI at a scale and speed the West can’t touch. Here’s why you’re behind.

bloomberg.com/professional/i…
Tencent alone processes more data than Microsoft 365 ever will.

1.3 billion users on WeChat.

China’s biggest gaming empire.

Its own cloud.

All AI-infused, end to end. (1/9)
Alibaba runs the world’s largest e-commerce system outside Amazon.

900 million+ users.

Real-time logistics, search, pricing, customer service, all AI-powered.

Also owns China’s top cloud platform. (2/9)
Read 10 tweets
Jun 8
Beijing doesn’t need to invade. It just needs to cut the lights and shut off the water. No bombs. No boots. Just silence and darkness.

Let’s dismantle the illusion.🧵

dailymaverick.co.za/article/2025-0…
TSMC fabs aren’t bunkers. They’re humidity-controlled, power-hungry cleanrooms. Pull the plug or stop the water and production halts. No exceptions. (1/10)
Taiwan imports over 80% of its energy. The grid is a soft target. China can hit it with a naval squeeze, cyberattack, or by cutting LNG supply. (2/10)
Read 11 tweets
Jun 8
Silicon is finished.
China already built something faster. Japan just joined the race. The U.S. is still chasing nanometers.

sciencedaily.com/releases/2025/…
The next chip war won’t be fought on silicon.
China already has a head start in post-silicon transistor tech. Japan just entered the race. The U.S.? Mostly watching.
(1/10)
In 2023, Chinese researchers built a gate-all-around transistor using a 2D material called bismuth oxyselenide.
It runs 40% faster than Intel’s 3nm chip and uses 10% less power.
(2/10)
Read 11 tweets

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