ATTENTION!
Thread 1 of 2:
The current military situation in the Middle East involving Israel (IS) and Iran (IR) is volatile & marked by a significant escalation in direct conflict between both nations.
Background: The last 48-72 hrs escalated when Israel launched a large-scale air campaign, codenamed "Operation Rising Lion," targeting IR’s nuclear facilities, military infrastructure, and senior leadership. This followed intel indicating IR had amassed enough enriched uranium to produce up to 15 NUCs w/in days. IR retaliated with missile and drone attacks on IS, leading to a cycle of strikes and counterstrikes.
Key players: IS, supported by U.S. intell but not direct military involvement (yet), is engaged in offensive operations against IR. IR, backed by its "Axis of Resistance" (including HZ, the Houthis, Hamas), is responding with retaliatory strikes. Other regional actors, such as SY, JO, TU and SA, play peripheral roles, with varying degrees of involvement.
Key Tactical Developments:
IS conducted over 200 airstrikes targeting IR's nuclear infrastructure (Natanz, Esfahan, and possibly Fordow), ballistic missile bases (Kermanshah Province), air defense systems, and command-and-control structures. These strikes killed key IR military figures, including IRGC Commander Hossein Salami, top military official Mohammad Hossein Bagheri, and nuclear scientists Fereydoon Abbasi and Mohammad Mehdi Tehranchi. UNCONFIRMED reports the Ayatollah is wounded.
IS employed advanced tactics, including kamikaze drones launched from within IR, which disrupted air defenses and delayed IR's immediate counterattack capabilities.
The operation aimed to degrade IR's nuclear program, suppress air defenses, and disrupt its ability to retaliate effectively. Satellite imagery confirmed the destruction of a major missile storage facility in Kermanshah.
IS Defense Minister Israel Katz declared a nationwide state of emergency, anticipating IR retaliation. The IDF mobilized tens of thousands of soldiers and prepared for multi-front operations.
IS's Iron Dome and other air defense systems intercepted many of IR's retaliatory missiles and drones, though some missiles struck Tel Aviv, causing 21 injuries, with two in serious condition.
The IDF lifted shelter orders after intercepting most of Iran's 100+ Shahed drones, with assistance from JO and SA air forces over their airspace.
IS maintains a high state of alert, with public gatherings banned in some areas, such as Jerusalem’s Old City.
IR launched over 100 ballistic missiles and drones targeting IS military bases and civilian areas, including Tel Aviv and Jerusalem. Some missiles penetrated IS defenses, damaging buildings and causing fires. IR Supreme Leader Khamenei vowed a "fierce" response, warning that IS would be left "helpless." The IRGC appointed a new commander-in-chief to replace Hossein Salami, though the identity remains undisclosed. IR is reorganizing its military leadership to mount a counteroffensive, but the loss of key commanders and damaged infrastructure will hinder immediate large-scale retaliation.
IR imposed internet restrictions and a media blackout to control information flow and manage domestic stability.
HZ, weakened by prior IS operations in LE, has not yet launched significant solidarity strikes but retains offensive capacity, particularly with domestically produced drones. The Houthis in YE, another IR proxy, have not been reported as actively participating in this phase of the conflict, though their ties with IR and recent agreements with the U.S. to halt Red Sea attacks suggest a focus on preserving their strength.
SY's transitional government, hostile to IR since the fall of Assad in December 24, is dismantling IR-linked networks, reducing IR's ability to use SY as a conduit for weapons to HZ...
Thread 1 of 2:
The current military situation in the Middle East involving Israel (IS) and Iran (IR) is volatile & marked by a significant escalation in direct conflict between both nations.
Background: The last 48-72 hrs escalated when Israel launched a large-scale air campaign, codenamed "Operation Rising Lion," targeting IR’s nuclear facilities, military infrastructure, and senior leadership. This followed intel indicating IR had amassed enough enriched uranium to produce up to 15 NUCs w/in days. IR retaliated with missile and drone attacks on IS, leading to a cycle of strikes and counterstrikes.
Key players: IS, supported by U.S. intell but not direct military involvement (yet), is engaged in offensive operations against IR. IR, backed by its "Axis of Resistance" (including HZ, the Houthis, Hamas), is responding with retaliatory strikes. Other regional actors, such as SY, JO, TU and SA, play peripheral roles, with varying degrees of involvement.
Key Tactical Developments:
IS conducted over 200 airstrikes targeting IR's nuclear infrastructure (Natanz, Esfahan, and possibly Fordow), ballistic missile bases (Kermanshah Province), air defense systems, and command-and-control structures. These strikes killed key IR military figures, including IRGC Commander Hossein Salami, top military official Mohammad Hossein Bagheri, and nuclear scientists Fereydoon Abbasi and Mohammad Mehdi Tehranchi. UNCONFIRMED reports the Ayatollah is wounded.
IS employed advanced tactics, including kamikaze drones launched from within IR, which disrupted air defenses and delayed IR's immediate counterattack capabilities.
The operation aimed to degrade IR's nuclear program, suppress air defenses, and disrupt its ability to retaliate effectively. Satellite imagery confirmed the destruction of a major missile storage facility in Kermanshah.
IS Defense Minister Israel Katz declared a nationwide state of emergency, anticipating IR retaliation. The IDF mobilized tens of thousands of soldiers and prepared for multi-front operations.
IS's Iron Dome and other air defense systems intercepted many of IR's retaliatory missiles and drones, though some missiles struck Tel Aviv, causing 21 injuries, with two in serious condition.
The IDF lifted shelter orders after intercepting most of Iran's 100+ Shahed drones, with assistance from JO and SA air forces over their airspace.
IS maintains a high state of alert, with public gatherings banned in some areas, such as Jerusalem’s Old City.
IR launched over 100 ballistic missiles and drones targeting IS military bases and civilian areas, including Tel Aviv and Jerusalem. Some missiles penetrated IS defenses, damaging buildings and causing fires. IR Supreme Leader Khamenei vowed a "fierce" response, warning that IS would be left "helpless." The IRGC appointed a new commander-in-chief to replace Hossein Salami, though the identity remains undisclosed. IR is reorganizing its military leadership to mount a counteroffensive, but the loss of key commanders and damaged infrastructure will hinder immediate large-scale retaliation.
IR imposed internet restrictions and a media blackout to control information flow and manage domestic stability.
HZ, weakened by prior IS operations in LE, has not yet launched significant solidarity strikes but retains offensive capacity, particularly with domestically produced drones. The Houthis in YE, another IR proxy, have not been reported as actively participating in this phase of the conflict, though their ties with IR and recent agreements with the U.S. to halt Red Sea attacks suggest a focus on preserving their strength.
SY's transitional government, hostile to IR since the fall of Assad in December 24, is dismantling IR-linked networks, reducing IR's ability to use SY as a conduit for weapons to HZ...
2 of 2:
The U.S. provided intell assistance to IS for intercepting IR missiles but did not participate in IS's strikes. U.S. air defense systems & a Navy destroyer (USS Thomas Hudner) helped IS counter IR ballistic missiles. The U.S. evacuated nonessential personnel from Iraq (IZ) & authorized the voluntary departure of military dependents from the Middle East due to fears of IR retaliation against U.S. assets. Nuclear negotiations with IR, scheduled for June 15 in Oman (OM), were suspended by IR (their bad), though U.S. officials expressed hope for continued talks.
JO's air force intercepted IR drones over its airspace, indicating limited support for IS's defense.
SA has not publicly supported IS's strikes & may be reassuring IR of its neutrality to avoid becoming a target.
SY's transitional government is aligning more closely with the West and IS, engaging in deconfliction talks & curbing IR influence, which limits IR's regional maneuverability.
Strategically IS's strikes aim to neutralize IR's nuclear threat, degrade its military capabilities, and disrupt its command structure. The operation’s sophistication, including drone infiltration & precise targeting, suggests a significant shift in the balance of power. By targeting nuclear facilities & leadership, IS seeks to delay or prevent IR's nuclear weaponization, though the strikes may not fully dismantle the program due to fortified sites like Fordow. IS's multi-front mobilization indicates preparation for potential escalation with IR's proxies, particularly HZ, though the latter’s weakened state limits its immediate threat.
IR's Challenges are immense: The loss of key military leaders & damage to missile & air defense infrastructure have temporarily constrained IR's ability to mount a robust counterattack. IR's reliance on ballistic missiles as its primary retaliatory weapon is hampered by IS strikes on missile bases & air defenses. The weakening of IR's regional allies (esp., the loss of Syria) limits its ability to project power through proxies, forcing a more direct confrontation with IS.
This war risks drawing in other actors, with IR threatening U.S. bases in Bahrain & Qatar if it perceives U.S. involvement. SY's shift away from IR & toward the West could reshape regional alliances, potentially isolating IR further.
The Gaza Strip & Palestinian issues may be sidelined as the IS-IR conflict dominates regional attention, potentially exacerbating humanitarian crises.
The collapse of nuclear talks, coupled with IS's strikes, reduces the likelihood of a diplomatic resolution in the near term. IR's rejection of zero uranium enrichment demands & the expiration of the JCPOA snapback mechanism in October 2025 increase the risk of further escalation.
Current Tactical Situation
IS maintains offensive momentum with ongoing airstrikes & a high state of defensive readiness. They face the challenge of sustaining operations while preparing for potential multi-front retaliation from IR & its proxies. They clearly benefit from U.S. intell and regional support (JO & SA) but will continue to operate w/out direct U.S. military backing.
IR is still reeling from leader losses & infrastructure damage, IR is reorganizing its military to mount a phased retaliation, likely focusing on ballistic missile strikes. They face internal challenges, including media blackouts & economic strain, which will limit its ability to sustain a prolonged conflict. IR's weakened proxy network restricts its ability to wage a multi-front war, forcing reliance on direct military action (trust me, IR is in big trouble).
The conflict has heightened tensions, with U.S. embassies & bases on high alert and evacuations underway. The risk of miscalculation or escalation into a broader regional war remains high, particularly if IR targets U.S. assets or HZ does something stupid.
BLUF: The situation is rapidly evolving, & I assess as entering a very critical & dangerous phase.
@realDonaldTrump
@DNIGabbard
The U.S. provided intell assistance to IS for intercepting IR missiles but did not participate in IS's strikes. U.S. air defense systems & a Navy destroyer (USS Thomas Hudner) helped IS counter IR ballistic missiles. The U.S. evacuated nonessential personnel from Iraq (IZ) & authorized the voluntary departure of military dependents from the Middle East due to fears of IR retaliation against U.S. assets. Nuclear negotiations with IR, scheduled for June 15 in Oman (OM), were suspended by IR (their bad), though U.S. officials expressed hope for continued talks.
JO's air force intercepted IR drones over its airspace, indicating limited support for IS's defense.
SA has not publicly supported IS's strikes & may be reassuring IR of its neutrality to avoid becoming a target.
SY's transitional government is aligning more closely with the West and IS, engaging in deconfliction talks & curbing IR influence, which limits IR's regional maneuverability.
Strategically IS's strikes aim to neutralize IR's nuclear threat, degrade its military capabilities, and disrupt its command structure. The operation’s sophistication, including drone infiltration & precise targeting, suggests a significant shift in the balance of power. By targeting nuclear facilities & leadership, IS seeks to delay or prevent IR's nuclear weaponization, though the strikes may not fully dismantle the program due to fortified sites like Fordow. IS's multi-front mobilization indicates preparation for potential escalation with IR's proxies, particularly HZ, though the latter’s weakened state limits its immediate threat.
IR's Challenges are immense: The loss of key military leaders & damage to missile & air defense infrastructure have temporarily constrained IR's ability to mount a robust counterattack. IR's reliance on ballistic missiles as its primary retaliatory weapon is hampered by IS strikes on missile bases & air defenses. The weakening of IR's regional allies (esp., the loss of Syria) limits its ability to project power through proxies, forcing a more direct confrontation with IS.
This war risks drawing in other actors, with IR threatening U.S. bases in Bahrain & Qatar if it perceives U.S. involvement. SY's shift away from IR & toward the West could reshape regional alliances, potentially isolating IR further.
The Gaza Strip & Palestinian issues may be sidelined as the IS-IR conflict dominates regional attention, potentially exacerbating humanitarian crises.
The collapse of nuclear talks, coupled with IS's strikes, reduces the likelihood of a diplomatic resolution in the near term. IR's rejection of zero uranium enrichment demands & the expiration of the JCPOA snapback mechanism in October 2025 increase the risk of further escalation.
Current Tactical Situation
IS maintains offensive momentum with ongoing airstrikes & a high state of defensive readiness. They face the challenge of sustaining operations while preparing for potential multi-front retaliation from IR & its proxies. They clearly benefit from U.S. intell and regional support (JO & SA) but will continue to operate w/out direct U.S. military backing.
IR is still reeling from leader losses & infrastructure damage, IR is reorganizing its military to mount a phased retaliation, likely focusing on ballistic missile strikes. They face internal challenges, including media blackouts & economic strain, which will limit its ability to sustain a prolonged conflict. IR's weakened proxy network restricts its ability to wage a multi-front war, forcing reliance on direct military action (trust me, IR is in big trouble).
The conflict has heightened tensions, with U.S. embassies & bases on high alert and evacuations underway. The risk of miscalculation or escalation into a broader regional war remains high, particularly if IR targets U.S. assets or HZ does something stupid.
BLUF: The situation is rapidly evolving, & I assess as entering a very critical & dangerous phase.
@realDonaldTrump
@DNIGabbard
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