Israel's AF & Mossad struck Iran's nuclear & missile facilities, assassinating scientists & generals.
For months, the pro-Israel & isolationist factions in the Trump admin have been fighting over Iran policy.
Bibi & Trump played you all, & it’s going to change history. Thread.
For months, the pro-Israel & isolationist factions in the Trump admin have been fighting over Iran policy.
Bibi & Trump played you all, & it’s going to change history. Thread.
When I was six, my father explained to me that you can't believe anything politicians say publicly, "it's all spin, all of it."
Even their bickering & infighting, it's all staged, and those very politicians attacking each other in the press are shaking hands in private.
2/
Even their bickering & infighting, it's all staged, and those very politicians attacking each other in the press are shaking hands in private.
2/
Most people are simply not cynical enough to see the world through this lens, Machiavelli is too difficult for them to swallow.
So you heard cries of "Trump sold us out for a plane from Qatar" or "Trump is going to invade Iran & start WWIII."
On and on, all illusions.
3/
So you heard cries of "Trump sold us out for a plane from Qatar" or "Trump is going to invade Iran & start WWIII."
On and on, all illusions.
3/
In April, Trump gave Iran 60 days to agree to a nuclear deal. Friday was day 61, time was up. Israel came down with the hammer.
Contrary to all the naysayers on the left and right, IL & US were well coordinated.
Trump was notified. Bibi went to pray at the Western Wall.
4/
Contrary to all the naysayers on the left and right, IL & US were well coordinated.
Trump was notified. Bibi went to pray at the Western Wall.
4/
On Friday night, all of Israel went on high alert, canceled educational activities & public gatherings were banned.
Iran's nuclear facilities & ballistic missile stocks were hit. 20 military brass, 9 top nuclear scientists--all liquidated. The IRGC headquarters were struck.
5/
Iran's nuclear facilities & ballistic missile stocks were hit. 20 military brass, 9 top nuclear scientists--all liquidated. The IRGC headquarters were struck.
5/
In subsequent attacks, Iranian air force hangers were destroyed, cargo planes bombed, & reportedly, 9 of their outclassed Migs were downed.
Iran continues to claim it has downed IAF birds, but no evidence has corroborated this questionable claim (see @Abualiexpress).
6/
Iran continues to claim it has downed IAF birds, but no evidence has corroborated this questionable claim (see @Abualiexpress).
6/
By early Saturday morning the IDF announced full aerial dominance over NW Iran.
The leg work for this was actually done last year, both in neutralizing Syria and the preliminary strikes on Iran see thread by Naf.
7/
The leg work for this was actually done last year, both in neutralizing Syria and the preliminary strikes on Iran see thread by Naf.
7/
https://x.com/nhazony/status/1867321500572832153
It's important to understand that Iranian nuke facilities are highly fortified.
The IAF is repeatedly bombing the same targets in hopes of busting through as they did assassinate Nasrallah.
Short of US heavy bombers (or IL Jerichos) it may take weeks to destroy the facilities.
8/
The IAF is repeatedly bombing the same targets in hopes of busting through as they did assassinate Nasrallah.
Short of US heavy bombers (or IL Jerichos) it may take weeks to destroy the facilities.
8/
Isolationists never understood was that Iran was never going to take a nuke deal--they couldn't.
Iran is an ageing nation, with belligerent minorities, a collapsing economy, & water shortages.
Israel, on the other hand, has a growing economy, population, and military.
9/
Iran is an ageing nation, with belligerent minorities, a collapsing economy, & water shortages.
Israel, on the other hand, has a growing economy, population, and military.
9/
Iran is expressing the nature expansionist powers, known since the Melian Dialogue:
If they stop expanding, they'll be overthrown by the people they oppress. They cannot accept a truce.
Every year that goes by, they weaken vis a vis Israel. They must win this generation.
10/
If they stop expanding, they'll be overthrown by the people they oppress. They cannot accept a truce.
Every year that goes by, they weaken vis a vis Israel. They must win this generation.
10/
The first Persian-Jewish War began on Oct. 7th to prevent an Israel-Saudi alliance.
But the war didn't go according to plan, as I have written elsewhere, instead of wounding Israel, the war destroyed Iran's proxy in Syria & decimated their forces in Lebanon & Gaza.
11/
But the war didn't go according to plan, as I have written elsewhere, instead of wounding Israel, the war destroyed Iran's proxy in Syria & decimated their forces in Lebanon & Gaza.
11/
https://x.com/HAHazony/status/1840192888036008042
Iran's direct attacks on Israel were ineffective; Israeli retaliation left Iran without any defenses.
The ONLY card Iran had left was the nuke. If the Mullahs relinquished the Bomb, their hopes for regional dominance were over. Within a generation, they would face revolution.
12/
The ONLY card Iran had left was the nuke. If the Mullahs relinquished the Bomb, their hopes for regional dominance were over. Within a generation, they would face revolution.
12/
So Iran would NEVER take a deal.
Bibi knew this, & he told Trump as much.
But Trump had a problem: His base was sick of wars.
Bibi too, had a problem: any attack on Iran would take a herculean effort, requiring immense preparation.
13/
Bibi knew this, & he told Trump as much.
But Trump had a problem: His base was sick of wars.
Bibi too, had a problem: any attack on Iran would take a herculean effort, requiring immense preparation.
13/
Here began a plan of such nefarious deception, even a jaded Machiavellian is astonished.
Pretend disagreements about Gaza, Qatari planes, throwing red meat to the isolationist base, offending pro-Israel voices. Supposed belligerent phone calls. Ongoing negotiations.
14/
Pretend disagreements about Gaza, Qatari planes, throwing red meat to the isolationist base, offending pro-Israel voices. Supposed belligerent phone calls. Ongoing negotiations.
14/
Everyone ate this up. Israeli press screamed that Bibi lost Trump. Isolationists jeeringly called Israel a client state. Pro-Israel voices shrieked bloody murder, had Trump betrayed them?
Of course, one could wonder why the most pro-Israel Prez. in history would do such a thing.
15/
Of course, one could wonder why the most pro-Israel Prez. in history would do such a thing.
15/
Inside Israel, smoke & mirrors proliferated:
Bibi allies were threatening to topple his government.
Bibi was going on vacation.
Netanyahu's son was getting married.
Witkoff set new dates for the talks.
As @jpodhoretz said, Bibi was Corleone, and the Mafia Dons were misled.
16/
Bibi allies were threatening to topple his government.
Bibi was going on vacation.
Netanyahu's son was getting married.
Witkoff set new dates for the talks.
As @jpodhoretz said, Bibi was Corleone, and the Mafia Dons were misled.
16/
Israel learned a lot from its Hezbollah war:
They assassinated the Iranian Airforce command officers by luring them to a targetable location.
They hit all the top generals of IRGC & army, causing hours of confusion as no one was in charge in Persia.
Iran’s response was delayed for hours, probably because of the damaged chain-of-command.
17/
They assassinated the Iranian Airforce command officers by luring them to a targetable location.
They hit all the top generals of IRGC & army, causing hours of confusion as no one was in charge in Persia.
Iran’s response was delayed for hours, probably because of the damaged chain-of-command.
17/
The IAF's 100s of of bombing runs in such short time at such a distance solidifies Israel as the dominant military power in the ME.
If Oct. 7th was a massive failure of paradigm, preparation, & operation on the part of the IDF's Army and the Shabac, the Iran & Hezbollah operations were the opposite for Mossad and IAF.
18/
If Oct. 7th was a massive failure of paradigm, preparation, & operation on the part of the IDF's Army and the Shabac, the Iran & Hezbollah operations were the opposite for Mossad and IAF.
18/
Mossad assets zoomed around releasing drone swarms with impunity as Tehran was bombed by IAF
19/
19/
Hats off to Trump and Bibi, they played the world.
But they did more than that, they have redefined Israel-US relations and reshaped the ME for a generation the same way Reagan, Thatcher, & John Paul II did for Eastern Europe.
16/
But they did more than that, they have redefined Israel-US relations and reshaped the ME for a generation the same way Reagan, Thatcher, & John Paul II did for Eastern Europe.
16/
Consider this @michaeljknowles poll:
Rightwing Americans want two things,
Americas enemies be defeated.
Second, not to fight wars.
Are these two not contradictory? Isolationists argue that every conflict in the world is the same as Iraq ~2000s.
17/
Rightwing Americans want two things,
Americas enemies be defeated.
Second, not to fight wars.
Are these two not contradictory? Isolationists argue that every conflict in the world is the same as Iraq ~2000s.
17/
But as @RMConservative pointed out, the problem with Iraq was not the war, but getting bogged down in nation-building & decades-long occupation.
This conflict is nothing of the sort. No one is considering an invasion of Iran. The US doesn't necessarily need to get involved.
18/
This conflict is nothing of the sort. No one is considering an invasion of Iran. The US doesn't necessarily need to get involved.
18/
It's true, US bases in the ME are vulnerable to retaliation.
But what is the purpose of military bases that RESTRAIN your military action for fear of retaliation?
Indeed, there is none. And these bases probably should be scaled back & retired.
19/
But what is the purpose of military bases that RESTRAIN your military action for fear of retaliation?
Indeed, there is none. And these bases probably should be scaled back & retired.
19/
Instead of the US getting dragged into endless military colonialism, the Trump Doctrine has always been:
Let our allies fight for us. If an ally cannot forward our interests in a region, they aren't an ally; they are a resource drain.
Israel is the model.
20/
@ToryAnarchist's piece captures this well:
Let our allies fight for us. If an ally cannot forward our interests in a region, they aren't an ally; they are a resource drain.
Israel is the model.
20/
@ToryAnarchist's piece captures this well:
https://x.com/ToryAnarchist/status/1933637405476597816?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
As Israel did in 1981 in Iraq & in Syria in 2007, they will prevent Iran from acquiring W.M.D.s that would threaten EU & US.
@oren_cass argues, far from being a resource drain, Israel will take the hits to ensure the ME theatre does not threaten the West. 21/
substack.com/home/post/p-16…
@oren_cass argues, far from being a resource drain, Israel will take the hits to ensure the ME theatre does not threaten the West. 21/
substack.com/home/post/p-16…
@ToryAnarchist @oren_cass Israel is neither capable nor interested in occupying Iran.
This isn't the Bush doctrine, as @ShidelerK pointed out, IL is not primarily concerned with regime change in Iran. Israel is interested in neutralizing offensive capabilities. This is a defanging operation.
22/
This isn't the Bush doctrine, as @ShidelerK pointed out, IL is not primarily concerned with regime change in Iran. Israel is interested in neutralizing offensive capabilities. This is a defanging operation.
22/
@ToryAnarchist @oren_cass @ShidelerK Even intelligent isolationists seem incapable of differentiating the two.
If the Mullahs fall, it will be due to the actions of the citizens of Iran, not because of invasion.
Worth listening to the remarks of the Crown Prince in Exile on the matter:
23/
If the Mullahs fall, it will be due to the actions of the citizens of Iran, not because of invasion.
Worth listening to the remarks of the Crown Prince in Exile on the matter:
23/
Iran knows this, & has shut all internet communications & shuttered the skies in their country.
What the Persian people will choose to do is up to them. But it seems Elon must has put up free Starlink internet, if they wanted to coordinate a revolution, that would be the way.
25/
What the Persian people will choose to do is up to them. But it seems Elon must has put up free Starlink internet, if they wanted to coordinate a revolution, that would be the way.
25/
As @ElbridgeColby has indicated in the past, the US has bigger things to worry about in the South China Sea than Iranian expansionism.
But it is also the case that a nuclear Iran is a clear threat to US strategy in the ME.
The question becomes if Iran can be neutralized w/ minimal drain on the US.
24/
aspistrategist.org.au/elbridge-colby…
But it is also the case that a nuclear Iran is a clear threat to US strategy in the ME.
The question becomes if Iran can be neutralized w/ minimal drain on the US.
24/
aspistrategist.org.au/elbridge-colby…
@ToryAnarchist @oren_cass @ShidelerK @ElbridgeColby Sec. Rubio's quick distancing of the US from IL's attack in the first hours was a good call.
Let IL demonstrate what it's capable of, minimize retaliation against US assets, and see if the US involvement is even necessary.
26
Let IL demonstrate what it's capable of, minimize retaliation against US assets, and see if the US involvement is even necessary.
26
Trump's policy vis a vis Israel is the opposite of Biden's. Instead of micromanaging every step, he stands back, lets Israel make its own moves.
If Israel wins, he takes credit. If Israel trips up, he shrugs his shoulders, "Wasn't my idea." It's called "plausible deniability." And Israel wins a lot.
27/
If Israel wins, he takes credit. If Israel trips up, he shrugs his shoulders, "Wasn't my idea." It's called "plausible deniability." And Israel wins a lot.
27/
@ToryAnarchist @oren_cass @ShidelerK @ElbridgeColby Saudi Arabia criticized the attacks, but their interests are with defanging Iran. Iranian drones are being shot down in their airspace.
Qatar is more interesting. The people funding the anti-Israel media campaign in the media are also defending Israel.
27/
Qatar is more interesting. The people funding the anti-Israel media campaign in the media are also defending Israel.
27/
Again, the rule is "Everything is spin." Believe no one. They are all lying.
It's crazy to consider that perhaps the Qataris were playing Tucker, fanning isolationist flames in US at Israel's request, further shrouding the incoming attack. Probably not. But we'll never know. 28/
It's crazy to consider that perhaps the Qataris were playing Tucker, fanning isolationist flames in US at Israel's request, further shrouding the incoming attack. Probably not. But we'll never know. 28/
@ToryAnarchist @oren_cass @ShidelerK @ElbridgeColby Iran's retaliations have been lackluster. 6 Israelis are dead, ~60 lightly injured. [so far]
But Israel has made clear that they will not tolerate the targeting of civilian population.
In response, Israel began bombing Oil & Gas infrastructure in Iran.
29/
But Israel has made clear that they will not tolerate the targeting of civilian population.
In response, Israel began bombing Oil & Gas infrastructure in Iran.
29/
@ToryAnarchist @oren_cass @ShidelerK @ElbridgeColby Regardless,Iran has not managed to field the kinds of responses they did last year.
If this is all the Mullahs can do, they're finished. All Israelis (of all political affiliations) are resolute: They are going to take this to the end.
We're moving into a new Middle East.
30/
If this is all the Mullahs can do, they're finished. All Israelis (of all political affiliations) are resolute: They are going to take this to the end.
We're moving into a new Middle East.
30/
@ToryAnarchist @oren_cass @ShidelerK @ElbridgeColby No one will make any major moves until it's clear Iran has lost its nuclear capabilities.
But as I have written in the past, if Israel wins, there will be a peace deal between SA/Sunni Monarchies & Israel.
31/
But as I have written in the past, if Israel wins, there will be a peace deal between SA/Sunni Monarchies & Israel.
31/
@ToryAnarchist @oren_cass @ShidelerK @ElbridgeColby Well argued by @Doranimated, Trump's new ME unites the IL-SA-Egpt axis with the Qtr-Trky axis against the Iranian axis.
If Iran falls, Trump's enemies will be gone. Trade routes from India > Gulf >IL > Trky >EU will be secured, & China will be muscled out of the region.
32/
If Iran falls, Trump's enemies will be gone. Trade routes from India > Gulf >IL > Trky >EU will be secured, & China will be muscled out of the region.
32/
Most people don't appreciate the enormity of Trump's play, which has been developing since the first Trump admin, pivoting on the central Abraham Accords.
Essentially, if successful, this war will close the ME as a theater, and complete US pivot to China.
/END
P.S. To all the Pro-Israel and isolationists losing their minds on twitter in the past two months: I told you so.
Essentially, if successful, this war will close the ME as a theater, and complete US pivot to China.
/END
P.S. To all the Pro-Israel and isolationists losing their minds on twitter in the past two months: I told you so.
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