Navigating housing’s uncertainty—insights from our 2025 Summit (A Thread) 
The big picture
Even with a looming slowdown, the firms that secure capital, scale operations, and lock in land today (institutionalization of land investing) will be best positioned to win when housing demand inevitably rebounds.
Our 2025 Housing Summit, held May 20–21 in Laguna Beach, brought together 165 housing industry executives for 2 days of strategic discussion, networking, and shared insights to inform future business planning.
Even with a looming slowdown, the firms that secure capital, scale operations, and lock in land today (institutionalization of land investing) will be best positioned to win when housing demand inevitably rebounds.
Our 2025 Housing Summit, held May 20–21 in Laguna Beach, brought together 165 housing industry executives for 2 days of strategic discussion, networking, and shared insights to inform future business planning.
10 key takeaways from the conference (1/10)
Spring sales slump likely stretching into summer: builders are trimming starts, renegotiating land deals, and leaning on rate-buydowns as entry-level traffic weakens and resale competition rises. FHA non-permanent resident restrictions went live May 25 (worries Fannie/Freddie implement too), and foreign investors are pulling back.
Spring sales slump likely stretching into summer: builders are trimming starts, renegotiating land deals, and leaning on rate-buydowns as entry-level traffic weakens and resale competition rises. FHA non-permanent resident restrictions went live May 25 (worries Fannie/Freddie implement too), and foreign investors are pulling back.
10 key takeaways from the conference (2/10)
Market share shift: big builders already control ~60% of the new home market and are accelerating M&A to press their cost-of-capital edge.
Market share shift: big builders already control ~60% of the new home market and are accelerating M&A to press their cost-of-capital edge.
10 key takeaways from the conference (3/10)
Land banking surge: a rush of new capital is crowding the space, compressing returns. Builders are re-evaluating land deals, pushing timelines, and exercising lot-option walk-aways where deals no longer pencil.
Land banking surge: a rush of new capital is crowding the space, compressing returns. Builders are re-evaluating land deals, pushing timelines, and exercising lot-option walk-aways where deals no longer pencil.
10 key takeaways from the conference (4/10)
Tariff & sourcing risk: recent policy gyrations still add ~2% to material costs, pushing manufacturers to reshore and builders to bypass distributors for direct supply.
Tariff & sourcing risk: recent policy gyrations still add ~2% to material costs, pushing manufacturers to reshore and builders to bypass distributors for direct supply.
10 key takeaways from the conference (5/10)
Single-family rental (SFR) moat: scaled SFR operators report firm renewal rent growth, underscoring the barriers to entry due to the complexity of managing scattered homes and capital needs. SFR groups are partnering with builders to expand portfolios efficiently.
Single-family rental (SFR) moat: scaled SFR operators report firm renewal rent growth, underscoring the barriers to entry due to the complexity of managing scattered homes and capital needs. SFR groups are partnering with builders to expand portfolios efficiently.
10 key takeaways from the conference (6/10)
Capital bifurcation: banks are tightening, while non-bank lenders and securitizations are stepping in and taking market share.
Capital bifurcation: banks are tightening, while non-bank lenders and securitizations are stepping in and taking market share.
10 key takeaways from the conference (7/10)
Multifamily capital on hold: equity prefers buying 20% below replacement cost to funding new projects; scarce dollars will favor build-to-rent and land banking.
Multifamily capital on hold: equity prefers buying 20% below replacement cost to funding new projects; scarce dollars will favor build-to-rent and land banking.
10 key takeaways from the conference (8/10)
Recession watch: Neil Dutta called for a recession in 2025, expecting 10-year Treasury rates at 3.75%–4%, implying mortgage rates near 6.5%.
Recession watch: Neil Dutta called for a recession in 2025, expecting 10-year Treasury rates at 3.75%–4%, implying mortgage rates near 6.5%.
10 key takeaways from the conference (9/10)
Structural undersupply: the US still needs ~1.3–1.6 million new homes a year through 2034, keeping long-term fundamentals intact
Structural undersupply: the US still needs ~1.3–1.6 million new homes a year through 2034, keeping long-term fundamentals intact
10 key takeaways from the conference (10/10)
Demographic demand: the 33–37-year-old cohort—the largest age cohort today—is entering peak family-formation years, providing a durable demand floor once affordability normalizes.
Demographic demand: the 33–37-year-old cohort—the largest age cohort today—is entering peak family-formation years, providing a durable demand floor once affordability normalizes.
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