🧵Russia’s Central Bank chief just spoke frankly about the state of the RUSSIAN ECONOMY — at Putin’s own flagship forum. Here’s what Elvira Nabiullina warned, and why it matters. 
1/6 At the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, Russia’s Central Bank chief Elvira Nabiullina made a rare admission:
“Many of the resources that fueled our growth over the past two years are now exhausted.”
Not oil. Not gas. She meant people, production capacity, and money.⏬
“Many of the resources that fueled our growth over the past two years are now exhausted.”
Not oil. Not gas. She meant people, production capacity, and money.⏬
2/6 The Russian economy had been growing thanks to leftover internal reserves:
– excess labor
– underused industrial capacity
– spare banking capital
– and rainy-day money from the National Wealth Fund (NWF)
Now those are running dry.
– excess labor
– underused industrial capacity
– spare banking capital
– and rainy-day money from the National Wealth Fund (NWF)
Now those are running dry.
3/6 Some hard stats:
– Unemployment is at a record low: 2.3%
– Factories are loaded at over 80% capacity
– Labor shortage: ~2 million workers (due to war + emigration)
– The liquid assets in the NWF have dropped 3× since 2022
Experts warn it may run out by 2026.
– Unemployment is at a record low: 2.3%
– Factories are loaded at over 80% capacity
– Labor shortage: ~2 million workers (due to war + emigration)
– The liquid assets in the NWF have dropped 3× since 2022
Experts warn it may run out by 2026.
4/6 So why is she saying this and on a major state platform?
Because Nabiullina is not a politician. She's a technocrat.
Her job isn’t to hype the system, it’s to gently warn the elites that the old growth model is over. There are no free internal boosts left.
Because Nabiullina is not a politician. She's a technocrat.
Her job isn’t to hype the system, it’s to gently warn the elites that the old growth model is over. There are no free internal boosts left.
5/6 It’s also a form of bureaucratic signaling to the Kremlin and ministries: “we need a new direction"; expectation management: "don’t count on easy growth in 2025–2026"; institutional self-protection: “we warned you”.
6/6 What she’s really saying is:
“The post-war recovery bounce is over. Without investment, reform, and new productivity — we stall. We may even overheat.”
No collapse yet — but stagnation is very real.
“The post-war recovery bounce is over. Without investment, reform, and new productivity — we stall. We may even overheat.”
No collapse yet — but stagnation is very real.
💥Since this is reaching new folks, here’s my Telegram for more updates from inside Russia: t.me/natashasrussia
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
