Thread by @ahhmedshh

🇮🇱🇮🇷

While the world watches missiles fly, the real danger is brewing below the headlines, in oil routes, bond markets, and balance sheets. The Iran-Israel war isn’t just military, it’s economic warfare by other means.

A thread on the fault line nobody’s pricing in 🧵

Iran–Israel hostilities now sit at the intersection of three fragilities: Gulf security, global energy continuity, and already-stressed capital markets.

One precision strike too many near Isfahan or in the Gulf waters could turn the Strait of Hormuz, gateway for ~20 % of world oil, into a risk premium nobody can price.

Abu Dhabi’s strategic calculus is blunt. As Dr @AnwarGargash warns, “The longer the war lasts, the more dangerous it becomes… setting us back, not only us in the UAE, but the region.” Translation: every extra day of fire erodes ten years of diversification, raises shipping insurance, and drags emerging-market spreads wider.

This is not simply a political crisis; it is an economic fault line. Tanker traffic, petro-chemical supply chains, even Gulf sovereign bond yields hinge on a single variable: escalation velocity. Markets can hedge price risk; they cannot hedge closure risk. If Hormuz clogs, global inflation gets a second wind and growth stalls.

Power today is measured in restraint. De-escalation backed by a credible diplomatic lane is not weakness; it is strategic asset protection. The Gulf understands this, energy importers from Asia to Europe depend on it, and investors are already voting with volatility. Wisdom, not missiles, will decide the region’s balance sheet. 🇦🇪

End of thread🧵