Will the Iran-Israel war escalate, and how long will it last?
If there’s one thread you must read, this is it! 🧵
A deep dive!
1/11
This is THE thread to understand the Iran-Israel war, raging since June 13, 2025.
Could it spiral into a regional catastrophe, and how long will it last?
Packed with data, military analysis, and heuristic modeling, let’s break it down.
Please share to learn and help disseminate!
#IranIsraelConflict
Further reading:
cfr.org/global-conflic…
If there’s one thread you must read, this is it! 🧵
A deep dive!
1/11
This is THE thread to understand the Iran-Israel war, raging since June 13, 2025.
Could it spiral into a regional catastrophe, and how long will it last?
Packed with data, military analysis, and heuristic modeling, let’s break it down.
Please share to learn and help disseminate!
#IranIsraelConflict
Further reading:
cfr.org/global-conflic…
2/11 What’s Happening?
Israel’s “Operation Rising Lion” hit Iran’s nuclear sites (Natanz, Fordow), missile bases, and IRGC leadership, killing Hossein Salami and Mohammad Bagheri.
Iran’s firing back with 39+ ballistic missiles on Tel Aviv and Haifa.
Casualties: 224+ in Iran, 24 in Israel. 💥
Israel’s “Operation Rising Lion” hit Iran’s nuclear sites (Natanz, Fordow), missile bases, and IRGC leadership, killing Hossein Salami and Mohammad Bagheri.
Iran’s firing back with 39+ ballistic missiles on Tel Aviv and Haifa.
Casualties: 224+ in Iran, 24 in Israel. 💥
3/11: What about the military balance?
Israel 🇮🇱: 170,000 active troops, 340 aircraft (F-35s, F-16s), Iron Dome at ~90% interception rate.
Destroyed 120 Iranian missile launchers, holds air supremacy.
Iran 🇮🇷: 610,000 personnel (190,000 IRGC), 312 aging aircraft (F-4s, MiG-29s), ~30% missile stock loss, S-300 defenses hit.
Can Iran fight without its proxy shield? 🤔
Further reading: economist.com/interactive/mi…
Israel 🇮🇱: 170,000 active troops, 340 aircraft (F-35s, F-16s), Iron Dome at ~90% interception rate.
Destroyed 120 Iranian missile launchers, holds air supremacy.
Iran 🇮🇷: 610,000 personnel (190,000 IRGC), 312 aging aircraft (F-4s, MiG-29s), ~30% missile stock loss, S-300 defenses hit.
Can Iran fight without its proxy shield? 🤔
Further reading: economist.com/interactive/mi…
4/11
What about the IRGC’s state?
It is significantly diminished.
However, a word of caution: claims of IRGC “capitulation” may be overstated.
Despite 20+ commanders killed, new leaders are in place, and missile strikes continue (though down to 2–3 per wave).
Bases like Kermanshah are crippled, slashing capacity.
Further reading: atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atla…
What about the IRGC’s state?
It is significantly diminished.
However, a word of caution: claims of IRGC “capitulation” may be overstated.
Despite 20+ commanders killed, new leaders are in place, and missile strikes continue (though down to 2–3 per wave).
Bases like Kermanshah are crippled, slashing capacity.
Further reading: atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atla…
5/11
The big question is: Will the IRGC hold or fold under pressure?
No crystal balls here!
We crunched military data, geopolitics, and history to estimate outcomes.
We analyze Iran’s weakened state, Israel’s nuclear knockout goal, and variables like U.S. involvement or oil disruptions.
It’s like strategic chess! ♟️
csis.org/analysis/escal…
The big question is: Will the IRGC hold or fold under pressure?
No crystal balls here!
We crunched military data, geopolitics, and history to estimate outcomes.
We analyze Iran’s weakened state, Israel’s nuclear knockout goal, and variables like U.S. involvement or oil disruptions.
It’s like strategic chess! ♟️
csis.org/analysis/escal…
6/11
Here are the possible scenarios.
Short War (1–3 months, 65%):
Israel’s air dominance and Iran’s losses (e.g., Natanz centrifuges destroyed) favour a ceasefire.
Iran’s 40% inflation and unrest push for talks via Oman, Qatar.
Medium War (3–6 months, 25%):
Iran sustains low-intensity strikes or hits Hormuz (20% global oil).
Long War (6+ months, 10%):
Needs U.S./Gulf escalation, unlikely with Iran’s isolation.
What’s your bet?
Here are the possible scenarios.
Short War (1–3 months, 65%):
Israel’s air dominance and Iran’s losses (e.g., Natanz centrifuges destroyed) favour a ceasefire.
Iran’s 40% inflation and unrest push for talks via Oman, Qatar.
Medium War (3–6 months, 25%):
Iran sustains low-intensity strikes or hits Hormuz (20% global oil).
Long War (6+ months, 10%):
Needs U.S./Gulf escalation, unlikely with Iran’s isolation.
What’s your bet?
7/11
Why is the short war likely?
Unlike Iran’s proxy wars (2006 Lebanon, 1 month), Hezbollah and Hamas are depleted.
IRGC’s missile barrages are fading, and 70% of Iranians oppose the regime, limiting escalation.
Israel wants a nuclear win, not occupation.
So now the Q is: Is a quick end realistic?
Why is the short war likely?
Unlike Iran’s proxy wars (2006 Lebanon, 1 month), Hezbollah and Hamas are depleted.
IRGC’s missile barrages are fading, and 70% of Iranians oppose the regime, limiting escalation.
Israel wants a nuclear win, not occupation.
So now the Q is: Is a quick end realistic?
8/11
But let's also look at possible escalation risks:
Iran’s Moves:
Could target U.S. bases (Iraq, Qatar), use Houthis, or choke Hormuz.
But U.S. retaliation would crush Iran’s economy.
U.S. Stance:
Trump demands Iran’s “surrender,” sent 2,500+ troops to deter, but avoids strikes.
Regional Players:
Gulf states aided Israel’s defense, risking Iran’s wrath.
What could tip the scales?
But let's also look at possible escalation risks:
Iran’s Moves:
Could target U.S. bases (Iraq, Qatar), use Houthis, or choke Hormuz.
But U.S. retaliation would crush Iran’s economy.
U.S. Stance:
Trump demands Iran’s “surrender,” sent 2,500+ troops to deter, but avoids strikes.
Regional Players:
Gulf states aided Israel’s defense, risking Iran’s wrath.
What could tip the scales?
9/11
Now, a deep dive into military aspects reveals.
Israel has an edge: Mossad’s pre-planted drones and ATGMs gutted Iran’s defenses pre-strike. 197+ sorties since June 12 show precision.
Iran's weaknesses are revealing itself: Aging air force, no proxy buffer, and hit nuclear sites (Fordow vulnerable) limit conventional power.
Cyberattacks and terrorism are fallback options.
What’s Iran’s next play?
Now, a deep dive into military aspects reveals.
Israel has an edge: Mossad’s pre-planted drones and ATGMs gutted Iran’s defenses pre-strike. 197+ sorties since June 12 show precision.
Iran's weaknesses are revealing itself: Aging air force, no proxy buffer, and hit nuclear sites (Fordow vulnerable) limit conventional power.
Cyberattacks and terrorism are fallback options.
What’s Iran’s next play?
10/11 How about possible diplomatic paths?
Iran hints at talks via Oman, Qatar, but wants a “final response” first.
Trump’s nuclear negotiation push aligns with Israel’s goals if Iran’s weak enough.
IAEA censures Iran’s 400kg enriched uranium stock, adding leverage.
Can diplomacy stop the missiles?
Further reading: foreignaffairs.com/iran/dan-shapi…
Iran hints at talks via Oman, Qatar, but wants a “final response” first.
Trump’s nuclear negotiation push aligns with Israel’s goals if Iran’s weak enough.
IAEA censures Iran’s 400kg enriched uranium stock, adding leverage.
Can diplomacy stop the missiles?
Further reading: foreignaffairs.com/iran/dan-shapi…
11/11
Now, let's keep the discussion going!
There is a thread that you may be interested in reading from several months ago!
x.com/DrSonuBhaskar/…
This war’s reshaping the Middle East—contained or regional chaos?
What’s the X pulse?
Drop your thoughts, and I can dive into oil shocks, proxy roles, or tech breakdowns.
Let’s keep this sharp, curious, and skeptical! 🔥
#Geopolitics #IranIsraelWar
Now, let's keep the discussion going!
There is a thread that you may be interested in reading from several months ago!
x.com/DrSonuBhaskar/…
This war’s reshaping the Middle East—contained or regional chaos?
What’s the X pulse?
Drop your thoughts, and I can dive into oil shocks, proxy roles, or tech breakdowns.
Let’s keep this sharp, curious, and skeptical! 🔥
#Geopolitics #IranIsraelWar
@UnrollHelper unroll, thank you!
@SpencerGuard @M1K3997 @Shlomo_Martin @TilushaVyas @Levi_Nagawkar @pete_gb
@SpencerGuard @M1K3997 @Shlomo_Martin @TilushaVyas @Levi_Nagawkar @pete_gb
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